So here's a little whodunnit to lighten the mood. Below the much quoted chart from the Berlin site, produced on the 28/12 and forecast for 5/1.
And here are some perturbations from the GEFS, produced from this mornings (2/1) 0z run and looking forward to the 18/1. - about 2 weeks on from that forecast above.
Even in the mean for the run, the vortex looks at least a little contrite.
I know, I know, lots of caveats apply to the trop forecast at that range. but could it be the models reacting to the warmings and wave activity...or else who (or what) done it?
Berlin site still broken, when I checked earlier btw.