[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015]

I think we should have whip-round to buy Recretos some extra RAM. Spectacular!

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015]

So here's a little whodunnit to lighten the mood. Below the much quoted chart from the Berlin site, produced on the 28/12 and forecast for 5/1.

And here are some perturbations from the GEFS, produced from this mornings (2/1) 0z run and looking forward to the 18/1. - about 2 weeks on from that forecast above.

Even in the mean for the run, the vortex looks at least a little contrite.

I know, I know, lots of caveats apply to the trop forecast at that range. but could it be the models reacting to the warmings and wave activity...or else who (or what) done it?

Berlin site still broken, when I checked earlier btw.

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015]

So to a very untrained eye, this looks like progress. According to the Berlin site today, by the 30th the warming looks like it's propagated to 30hpa:

Consequentially (I'm hoping) zonal wind speeds go from this this:

...to this:

As pointed out above, day 10 charts also hint at increased Wave 2 activity.

Please put me right if I'm being naive here,

tyfelin

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015]

 

Now for those of you that cant see those "positive points" right away on the graphics above, I have made three new graphics just for you. It is the difference between this year and last year, centred on 27.11 as far as ECM forecasts go and in a relatively good range of skill. It is the difference on this date between this year and last year. Data from this year is based on the Para GFS forecast (it is perhaps a bit different than ECM, but it gives a good general idea nonetheless), and data for last year is based on reanalysis from ECMWF ERA-Interim (accessible from the data portal me and Matt were talking about). It shows nicely just how weaker the mid-upper strat vortex really is, and as far as temperature goes, it has a pretty non-hospitable environment. It looks really cool (no pun intended), at least to me, and its a good indicator how different things are up there. It is interesting to note how the QBO phase also has its own temperature profile.

 

 

Wind-wise, the QBO difference is visible right away, since the phase is different to last year (we are in a QBO-, so that is why the negative difference relative to last year, and the positive above it). The polar jet is quite weaker at this point, because of the wave onslaught. 

 

 

And the geopotential height difference, which also tells its own story of the vortex strength and the wave onslaught. I used the MERRA dataset for this one, because the ECMWF ERA gpm data is not coded in a compatible format with GFS, tho wind and temperature are. With this graphic you kinda get the fell what those wave graphics from FU-Berlin might mean.

Here is also interesting to note how the QBO also has its own geopotential height profile.

 

 

Not to mention that the ECM forecast has an even weaker vortex (slightly) and a warmer wave as the GFS. 

 

I really love playing around with data. Hope you like it. 

 

Regards.

I've pinned them to the fridge. If I just stare at them long enough...

Thanks for the extra help, Recretos. Very much appreciated.

Tyfelin

[Interpreting stratospheric temperature flux charts]

That's a great help. Cheers.

[Interpreting stratospheric temperature flux charts]

Hi Lorenzo. I originally posted this question on the start thread, and got to take a few sips from the firehose that is Recretos :-)

I'm trying to Interpret the wave 1 and 2 charts as frequently posted by yourself, Matt etc. I know how Fourier analysis works, so I'm good the concept of waves 1, 2, 3. And I can spot the phenomena easily enough on a chart which displays the height of a geopotential surface. But I'm really struggling with this type of chart:

https://f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/uploads/monthly_11_2014/post-15767-0-96037400-1415857618.jpg

I understand the axes. And I can see that in this view you're looking at the phenomenon happening through a deep layer of atmosphere. But how do I interpret this as a wave? What are the units on the third axis, delineated by the colour scheme?

Any help appreciated. Sure I'll get to the heat flux data at some point!

Tyfelin

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015]

Hi Recretos,

Thanks for going to that trouble. Those earlier graphics paint a vivid picture of wave 1 and 2. There's lot to pore over there, infant.

I can quite easily visualise the wave(s) when represented by the height of a geopotential surface distributed in space. It was specifically the FU Berlin Mean Zonal Wind charts for Wave 1 and 2 that I was perplexed by. What does the shading indicate? What are the units highlighted?

Sorry guys. Probably a dumb question. First in a long and illustrious line of such, no doubt.

Tyfelin

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015]

Hi guys. I'm struggling to interpret the Wave 1 and 2 charts as posted by Matt and Recretos. They're charting some function of the wave in space (geopotential surface x latitude), but it can't be simple amplitude, or you wouldn't need the third set of coordinates, represented by the colour. If this is written down someplace, just point me?

Tyfelin

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2014/2015]

Folks - just wanted to say hi. I found this thread fascinating last year, but failed to contribute. Hope to put that right this season. I'm intrigued by the sheer scale of the processes wrestled with here, as well as potentially the ability to get some insights into what winter has in store for us. I note we're off to a cracking start, with the Met Office seemingly standing firmly behind its 'warm, wet and windy' prediction, in some contrast to views expressed here.

tyfelin