Summer Sun

ECM has the low ever so slightly further west compared to GFS which enables +8 uppers to cover more places

GFS continues to give many parts of the south the first 20c of the year given the cold sea temperatures coastal districts are likely to be slightly cooler but inland parts will certainly notice the warmth For the bulk of the east it should be dry but cloudy with any rain in the west Monday also has the potential to hit 20c Next week sees continued indications of a huge area of high pressure building across Europe and this drifts towards the UK with a north south split likely to devlop

Winter's over! Snow flurries in the north are the cold snap's last blast before Spring fully blooms with 20C expected from Sunday http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz2Q4lZbsNT

Warmer weather on the way Southerly winds will bring some milder weather for the weekend, especially in the south and east of the United Kingdom. BBC Weather's Tomasz Schafernaker has the details. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/22093546

Yep cloud is breaking now feels really nice out there today should be even warmer by Sunday

The ECM ensemble shows high pressure starting to become dominant across Europe during next week Sunday and Monday will see the peak for the highest temperatures with 20c to 22c possible in the east where the cloud thins and breaks

UK Outlook for Thursday 25 Apr 2013 to Thursday 9 May 2013: Current indications suggest conditions during the latter part of April and early May being fairly typical for the time of year. This would leave temperatures often nearer average, though given colder than average seas, coastal areas may be quite chilly whenever sea breezes occur, whereas inland it will become warm at times. Meanwhile, during any settled spells the risk of overnight ground frost is, perhaps, slightly greater than average. Unsettled, changeable conditions probably still affecting some northern and western parts early in this forecast period. Otherwise, in the absence of any strong signals for trends in precipitation for late April into early May, nearer average rainfall amounts are considered most likely. Updated: 1127 on Wed 10 Apr 2013 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Monday 15 Apr 2013 to Wednesday 24 Apr 2013: Cloud and rain in the north and west early Monday will spread eastwards across all areas during the day followed by clearer conditions with some showers and bright or sunny spells. Rain may be heavy in the north and west with strong winds. The remainder of next week will be unsettled with rain or showers accompanied by strong winds at times, however in between there should be drier, sunny spells. Southern and eastern parts are most likely to be driest with the best of the sunshine, becoming warm inland as a result, otherwise temperatures during this period will be around average with nights milder than of late. A northwest-southeast split in the weather is likely to continue into the following week; the most changeable weather in the north and west. Updated: 1126 on Wed 10 Apr 2013 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

A rise to 3.7c to the 9th

Welcome warmth for the UK For some there's warmth, for others there's welcome rain. BBC Weather's Alex Deakin springs forward to the weekend forecast. http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/22079855

Britain’s set for 21C on sizzling Sunday http://www.express.c...sizzling-Sunday HELL WINTER OVER AT LAST AS SUNDAY SET TO BE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR http://www.dailystar...ay-of-the-year/

Fine in south Rain to north Issued: 0530hrs Wednesday 10th April 2013 Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling Dry and warm in southern Europe, but rain to the north Wednesday Wind and rain affecting the north of Spain. Fair for the south of Spain and Portugal with sunny spells. Bright for the Balearics, but some rain over the north of Italy. Southern Italy should be bright with sunny spells. More sunshine and fine weather to come in Greece and Turkey. Cloud and rain in western and southern France, some of it heavy at times. Sunny spells for northern France and Germany. Eastern and northern Germany will be cloudy and damp with sunny spells. Cloud and rain through Portland. Some bright spells and dry weather in Austria, Hungary and Switzerland. Cloud and rain affecting Denmark. Southern Norway will have cloud and some rain too. A fair day across the rest of Norway and Sweden with good spells of sunshine. More sunshine through Finland and dry too. Cloud and some spots of rain for northern Norway and Sweden. Thursday Some showers affecting northern and western parts of Spain and Portugal. Dry and fair across eastern and southern Spain. A fine morning in the Balearics and Italy. Warm through Greece and Turkey with lots of sunshine and warm weather here. More sunshine and dry in Bulgaria and Romania. Cloud and rain, some of it heavy through France. Windy with heavy showers across the Low Countries, while more heavy rain affecting Germany and western parts of Poland. A warmer and brighter day through Austria, Hungary and Switzerland. Cloud and rain as well as strong winds through Denmark and southern Norway as well as southern Sweden. Outbreaks of rain in the Baltic States. A few showers in Finland. Much of Norway and Sweden will b dry and bright with sunny spells. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=204&FILE=eus&DAY=20130410

Much milder Rain at times Much milder than recently, but some rain http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20130410

You do realize that the May bank holiday is May 6th? that chart above has nothing what so ever to do with the May bank holiday Anyway back to the here and now and the models continue to promote a mild or even warm weekend deepening on where you live FI from ECM shows the high continues to stay put and given its position we'd see lots of warm sunny weather GFS at deepest FI also has the high firmly in place but that would bring easterly winds

The ECM Debilt is only going one way now finally and thats up

Temp To Hit 20C As Spring Comes Spring will bloom next week as the cold snap that is winter's last blast moves away, according to forecasters. Temperatures will reach up to 20C in parts of the south and east and will get up to double figures in across all of Britain after one of the coldest recorded Marches in history. People in the north of England and Scotland may have felt as if the cold spell would never end however as many parts spent another day covered in snow. Temperatures in northern areas continued at an unseasonably low of between 4C (39.2F) and 7C (44.6F) throughout the day and into tomorrow. But forecasters have revealed there is much better weather on the way for the whole country, with temperatures after Sunday expected to leap. Billy Payne, a forecaster for the Press Association, said: "Cold easterly winds have continued to cause snow in the north of England and Scotland, with a quite brisk wind coming from Scandinavia still affecting large parts of the country. http://news.sky.com/...as-spring-comes

t192 see's the high ridging up from the south and it will quickly re-introduce the warmer air t216 see's warmer air taking over once more

t168 see's the lows tracking across Scotland and cooler air moving back in from the west Where as GFS prefers to keep us warmer with south westerly winds

ECM once again places the low in a better place at t120 keeping it further west than GFS does Compared to GFS ECM = Bank! There will be a breeze for the UK but it will be a warm one and not a nagging cold easterly

Just had a look at the latest NAO and that most of its members are above the black 0 line that indicates that pressure over Greenland and Iceland is likely to stay low allowing high pressure to stay over the UK

Heatwave to hit Britain sending temperatures soaring after months of icy hell http://www.mirror.co...0#ixzz2PzAASCgo Temperatures to soar next week http://uk.news.yahoo...11.html#2Bhhcry

We remain on track to hit the first 20c of 2013 this coming weekend Before we get there it looks like a band of rain will cross the country on Saturday and behind it will be the warm air Into next week and we develop a north south split with a huge area of high pressure across most of Europe edging into the UK only Scotland is left with lower pressure Temperatures will be mild for just about all a far cry from what we've suffered so far this year UKMO and GFS at t144 So remaining chilly till Friday in the north milder in the south from tomorrow as we import warmer winds then its all change for all this weekend with a wet Saturday followed by a warm and for many in the east and south dry Sunday where the cloud does break or thin it would feel very pleasant with temperatures upto 21c more than possible

Now well into day 16 with out rainfall it does look like rain is coming on Thursday but I don't think it will have much effect as the ground is so dry now At the end of February the regions biggest Reservoir Kielder was 92.2% not sure what its current status is By Sunday we could see temperatures into the teens for the region going by the latest data

The past year seems to have been one of locked patterns first it was months of wet weather from April till October with just 2 noticeable settled periods 1 at the end of May and 1 when the Olympics were on. Then we went into an early cold period with snow in October This year we've had winds from an easterly direction of some sort for around 8 weeks with just the odd milder spell Now we appear to be entering a settled spell according to ECM and GFS with high pressure setting up residence across Europe and drifting to the UK setting up a north west south east split once the low passes through this weekend

UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Apr 2013 to Wednesday 8 May 2013: Current indications suggest conditions during the latter part of April and early May being fairly typical for the time of year. This would leave temperatures often nearer average, though given colder than average seas, coastal areas may be quite chilly whenever sea breezes occur, whereas inland it become warm at times. Meanwhile, during any settled spells the risk of overnight ground frost is, perhaps, slightly greater than average. Unsettled, changeable conditions probably still affecting some northern and western parts early in this forecast period. Otherwise, in the absence of any strong signals for trends in precipitation for late April into early May, nearer average rainfall amounts are considered most likely. Updated: 1242 on Tue 9 Apr 2013 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html