Summer Sun

The North Sea is waking up with plenty of rain showers heading inland

Ice warning issued for East Sussex, Greater London, Kent, Surrey and West Sussex early tomorrow with the potential for heavy snow showers giving 1-3 cm, mainly over the north Downs and on grassy surfaces. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Weatherdesk_Enquiries#?date=2024-01-08&id=2d0cd9c0-a0c2-4590-bb62-80efcdc6fa2a

For all the talk of the cold spell, the temperatures the beeb are showing for the week ahead are at best only just below average

Thursday 11 Jan - Saturday 20 Jan High pressure will remain in charge at first, whilst sitting to the north or northwest of the UK. Many areas will often be dry if rather cloudy, however occasional light rain or drizzle is likely, especially on some east-facing hills. The best of any sunshine in sheltered western and perhaps southern areas and still rather chilly for most. Towards mid-month, the high will likely decline or reorientate itself to the west or northwest of the UK, potentially allowing colder air with snow showers to filter south across the UK and/or for frontal systems to approach from the southwest. The latter scenario would also bring the potential for significant snow and also perhaps some heavy rain to parts of the south. Either way a more unsettled outlook towards mid-month looks probable. Sunday 21 Jan - Sunday 4 Feb Through this period, compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures, ice and snow. Whilst colder weather is more likely to dominate, there is also the possibility of further frontal systems at least encroaching from the west or southwest, bringing the potential for more widespread snow to parts of the UK as they butt up against any cold air in place. These would also increase the likelihood of wetter conditions redeveloping, at least in the south, where occasional milder interludes are also most likely. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

8.2c to the 5th 4.4c above the 61 to 90 average 3.8c above the 81 to 10 average

BBC Monthly Outlook Summary Colder than average through most of January Saturday 6 January to – Sunday 14 January Colder than normal with fog and ice risks Monday 15 January to – Sunday 21 January Sharp frosts, fog and some wintry showers Monday 22 January to – Monday 29 January Possibly less cold for a while Further ahead We will see in the next update whether or not the long-range models come into better agreement, and if the overall cold theme remains most likely. https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Wednesday 10 Jan - Friday 19 Jan High pressure will remain in charge through the first part of this period, whilst sitting to the north or northwest of the UK. This means a fair amount of dry weather for the majority of the country, with variable cloud and some sunny spells. Still the chance of a few showers, perhaps wintry at first, feeding into some eastern coasts. Still on the cold side too, though perhaps less so than the preceding couple of days, with reduced wind chill in the south. Into the following week, as the high is forecast to build further to the west, there is an increasing likelihood of northerly winds developing, introducing colder air once more. With this comes the risk of snow showers, especially around windward coasts along with overnight frost and ice. Saturday 20 Jan - Saturday 3 Feb Through this period, compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder conditions along with the associated impacts from low temperatures, ice and snow. Whilst colder weather is more likely to dominate, there is also the possibility of frontal systems at least encroaching from the west or southwest, bringing the potential for more widespread snow to parts of the UK as they butt up against cold air in place. These would also increase the likelihood of wetter conditions, at least in the south, at least compared to the preceding week or two. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

8.2c to the 4th 4.4c above the 61 to 90 average 3.9c above the 81 to 10 average

Enontekiö Airport has recorded a low of -43.7c, making it the coldest day in Finland this century.

Tuesday 9 Jan - Thursday 18 Jan Next week will begin mostly dry with variable amounts of cloud and some sunny spells. The sunniest weather is likely to be in the north and west. Elsewhere, probably mostly cloudy with a cold easterly breeze developing in the south. By the middle of next week, the wind should ease and, with high pressure in charge, there should be a good deal of dry weather. Cloud amounts will continue to be quite variable, but all areas should see some sunshine at times. Much colder than recently, with frost probably becoming quite widespread and some freezing fog patches are possible in places. Beyond next week, conditions are likely to remain cold, with an increasing chance of some snow showers, developing particularly in the north. Friday 19 Jan - Friday 2 Feb Compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder than average conditions during this period. Currently the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low, but still the risk of impacts from cold, including ice and snow is greater than normal. It is likely to be drier than recent weeks, but what does fall is more likely to be of a wintry nature. While there is a chance of brief, unsettled spells, which would bring milder air for a time, it would likely also be accompanied by a period of sleet or snow. However, when, or even if, this would happen is very uncertain, and overall the main theme will be much more in the way of settled conditions through this period. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

8.2c to the 3rd 4.4c above the 61 to 90 average 3.9c above the 81 to 10 average

Swedish snow chaos leaves 1,000 vehicles trapped on main E22 road Swedish snow chaos leaves 1,000 vehicles trapped on main E22 road WWW.BBC.CO.UK The army is called in to help drivers in southern Sweden amid a big freeze across the Nordic countries.

Finland has had its coldest January temperature since 2006 with Enontekiö Airport dropping to -42.5c

Monday 8 Jan - Wednesday 17 Jan Next week will begin mostly dry with variable amounts of cloud and some sunny spells. The sunniest weather is likely to be in the north and west, although here some overnight fog patches are possible. Elsewhere, probably mostly cloudy with a cold easterly breeze developing in the south. By the middle of next week, the wind should ease and, with high pressure in charge, there should be a good deal of dry weather. Cloud amounts will continue to be quite variable, but all areas should see some sunshine at times. Much colder than recently, with frost probably becoming quite widespread and some freezing fog patches are possible in places. Beyond next week, conditions are likely to remain cold, with an increasing chance of some wintry showers, particularly in the north. Thursday 18 Jan - Thursday 1 Feb Compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder than average conditions during this period. Currently the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low, but still the risk of impacts from cold, including ice and snow is greater than normal. It is likely to be drier than recent weeks, but what does fall is more likely to be of a wintry nature. While there is a chance of brief, unsettled spells, which would bring milder air for a time, it would likely also be accompanied by a period of sleet or snow. However, when, or even if, this would happen is very uncertain, and overall the main theme will be much more in the way of settled conditions through this period. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

Yellow cold weather alert issued for all of England from the 6th to 9th, with the probability the cold spell will last into the following week.

The Kvikkjokk-Årrenjarka temp was equal to 1918

BBC Monthly Outlook Summary A colder spell expected but longevity is uncertain Wednesday 3 January to – Sunday 7 January Starting unsettled but turning drier and colder Monday 8 January to – Sunday 14 January Colder than average. Less settled later Monday 15 January to – Sunday 28 January Cold for a while longer. Possibly milder later Further ahead When the next update rolls around, we will see if models have any better agreement on the evolution of weather patterns throughout mid-January. Will we still be forecasting colder-than-average weather, and how soon might it turn milder? https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

What could possibly go wrong

Kvikkjokk-Årrenjarka in Sweden has equalled its lowest recorded January temperature with -43.0C it is also the lowest January country temperature since 1999 when Karesuando dropped to -49.0C

Sunday 7 Jan - Tuesday 16 Jan Into Sunday and the new week broadly settled conditions quite widely across the country, with colder conditions and some frosty nights (perhaps becoming widespread and severe in time). Initially there are still likely to be some showers, especially around windward coasts in the east, but in general most areas start to see longer, more settled spells develop. Occasional unsettled spells are still possible later in the period, but these generally much more regionalised, and infrequent than of late. As temperatures fall, the chance of any precipitation falling as sleet and snow increases, particularly over high ground and especially over northern parts of the UK, but not exclusively so by any means. As well as frost and ice by night, some freezing fog is likely to develop as well. Wednesday 17 Jan - Wednesday 31 Jan Compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder than average conditions during this period. Currently the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low, but still the risk of impacts from cold, including ice and snow is greater than normal. It is likely to be drier than recent weeks, but what does fall is more likely to be of a wintry nature. While there is a chance of brief, unsettled spells, which would bring milder air for a time, it would likely also be accompanied by a period of sleet or snow. However, when, or even if, this would happen is very uncertain, and overall the main theme will be much more in the way of settled conditions through this period. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

7.0c to the 1st 3.2c above the 61 to 90 average 2.6c above the 81 to 10 average

Sweden has recorded its first -40c of the season this morning, with Nikkaluokta dropping to -40.5c