Ruzzi

If it doesn't deviate too much from that then I'll be happy. Higher parts of the central belt could do quite well by Friday morning, especially Harthill, Shotts, Salsburgh etc but sitting here at 188 ASL, I'll been checking the lamppost often.

And equally if you're going to write off a full month on the 4th.... Don't base it on a day 10 chart of one ECM run which is what you based your point on. Day 10 ECM charts aren't exactly renowned for being on the money either. January is not written off, irrespective of what any output is showing.... Its the 4th!!

Yeah I'm still pinning my hopes on a Sudden Tropospheric Warming.

You just completely contradicted your argument.... January is out the window cause the background drivers don't support it?.... But then say that the background drivers were favourable last month, and it didn't lead to what was possible/expected..... Surely that in itself is enough to sit back and think that on the 1st of the month, anything is possible, irrespective of what the background drivers show. Also I note you mentioned as part of your back-up that no SSW is expected in January.... even if there was, it most likely wouldn't effect the weather in January unless if was already underway given the potential lag times, albeit there can be a quick trop response but it really would need to be getting underway about now so whether a SSW was or was not forecast for January, it really would be unlikely to have much bearing on our January weather unless you're thinking about SSW precursor patterns as part of your argument? Or a SSW happening right now with a short lag to affect the latter stages of january? I genuinely am interested to know what background drivers you are referring to for your January outlook. Not trying to be snide, I'm just curious?

Maybe more of a subjective issue with regards to last year's SSW delivering or not because I ended up with this: 47cm of level snow and drifts a plenty... In terms of this year, the strat is not my strongest subject but with there being a complete disconnect between the strat and trop, I'm really not sure how a SSW would affect things. With the uncoupled trop and strat set to continue then I think there's plenty of options going forward however with the strength of the strat at present, what we really don't want is a solid coupling if there is not to be a SSW. I genuinely have no idea what would play out if we were to get a SSW while there remains a disconnect between the 2.

I don't want to labour this point otherwise I'll have a Mod fist shaped mark planted on my dish... But I don't think anyone is disputing the figures for CET for the months that are there, and the winter CET following a particular September CET, the point is that no direct correlation or explanation can be made between solely the September temperature and the following winter. Anyway big overnight runs coming up why not eh

No.... No it most certainly isn't. Winters of the 1700's, yes maybe so but a 5 day cold spell with temps close to freezing across the country..... That most certainly is and will be for anyone on this forum, a possibility during any winter

I could have maybe understood if it were down to particular teleconnections or, even if someone had mentioned reduced snow cover in the northern hemisphere, QBO phase, enso state..... But come on, becuase the UK had a warm September? 2 months before winter starts? Sorry but I'm not entertaining that, a warm September could have been caused by so many different synoptic evolutions. A simple factor of temperature in September cannot have a bearing on the following full winter.

Please tell me that this is tongue-in-cheek? ?

Sorry I wasn't directly quoting you, the 2 week reference was not taken from anything you said, it was mentioned elsewhere. I don't however agree that the weather is certain, or even fairly certain out to 2 weeks. There were points not so long ago where it seemed "fairly certain" that we were facing a cold foreseeable and it changed very quickly. And whilst I understand your point about about the ensembles showing the same pattern, just delayed by time... It's just simply not true! Especially when you're basing it on an 850's temperature basis. An ensemble could show a very similar temperature 850's wise as another ensemble member, but have a completely different synoptic pressure pattern to each other both in our locale and hemispherically.... So if you then add in the fact that by day 5/6 that there is a developing scatter, there can only be uncertainty from that point forwards. For example, if you take all the ensembles at day 6 as a starting point, and run them for the 8 days from there (which takes you up to the end of the 2 week period that you're stating is fairly certain in terms of outcome) .... There is absolutely no way that they will be showing the same general evolutions only delayed by time. There is nothing simple about weather or indeed predicting weather as I'm sure we're all aware, but one thing that is absolutely certain is that when ensembles show scatter, especially as much as they are showing just now, you cannot be certain of a course of weather type or indeed how the following couple of weeks will play out.

Absolutely, it is not an outlier whatsoever! Sometimes I feel like people latch onto terminology and spout it out at random times for literally no reason at all. I think the conclusion that can be drawn from that particular run is that there is huge uncertainty beyond the 3rd of January. There's such a large spread across all the ensembles from the 3rd onwards that there is no clear specific direction of travel that can be drawn.... Which we already knew prior to the run anyway ?? The op goes from bottom of the pack, to top of the pack at various stages, huge scatter = more time and runs required, especially given that the deviation starts from day 5/6, in times of such model uncertainty, it's always going to be FI at that point anyway. Watching brief would be the order of the day, see how the next couple of days develop, looking for recurring themes and patterns and as the divergence point of today's runs draw closer over the next couple of days, it'll hopefully show the direction of travel moving into the early stages of January. And, finally... Looking mild for the next couple of weeks it ain't!! That's not to say it won't transpire like that, but taking an overview of all the models, and the many uncertainties at this point, there is no consistent signal for mild weather through-out, the next few days yes absolutely, but from day 5/6 onwards, there's no solid indication of a continuing mild theme.... Scatter = uncertainty Plenty of options on the table, cold and mild! Let's see how we fair over the next couple of days but enough to keep the interest for sure!

New thread to start the next chase then?

UKV pepping up the North Sea activity.... We're not talking beast style convective heaven, but still good to see some showers appearing and drifting inland a little at parts on Xmas night and into boxing day. Having said all that..... The way the models are, I'm still not confident on what's going to happen on Xmas yet with the constant changes and adjustments. I really can't help but get the feeling that the southward corrections are going continue right up to the day its happening. Seen it so many times where the front was initially shown in Scotland only for it to miss the South altogether come the day. The southward corrections obviously have ramifications for us as well. Curious to see if we land a bit of snow tomorrow before it turns to rain aswell

Fair enough so on that basis then as of today we hit the 3 week mark, with 10 weeks left til the end of February however with the greatest respect, people aren't here because they're only interested in stats and how they panned out culminating on the 28th of February and nothing afterwards.... If its shows a foot of snow on the 2nd of March, it'll make no difference to people whether it's within the so called defined winter months. My point was that there is scope for wintry weather or snow or cold spells etc for another 14 weeks or so, and trying to write that off on the 21st of decemeber and only referring to 2 factors as a basis is a frustratingly inaccurate read.

I know you dont want to be considered as just a 'random person on the Internet' and I see the work you put into your pages and posts on here etc.... But please don't start banging that drum online, you don't want 85% of people in the Peak left thinking the whole winter is over now P.S....today is the first... Yes the FIRST day of meteorological winter. I know you only quoted Jan/Feb (however March can deliver the goods aswell)... But there's 10 weeks!!! til the end of February, plus the whole of March to come. That's nearly 2 and a half months, plus March on top. Winter is not over just because it may not snow on Xmas day and referring to only 2 factors in order to put the rest of winter to bed is beyond me. Especially when it's 2 factors that can change quickly.... We're not talking about long term slow moving factors that you mentioned like LA nina, or QBO or solar cycle etc.. Honestly it's the 21st of December!!!! ?

You're still in the southern half of the mainland by a fair distance, so no probably not quite. About 250/270 miles between York and Brighton on the south coast, and about 440/450 between York and Thurso on the North Coast

Awww go on thennnn, geez the GFS

Last chance saloon for what?

Well I hope you're right about the last chart because that gave me the best 24 hour snow event I've experienced.... I lived near Shotts at the time and woke up in the morning to drifts covering vans, snow to ridiculous depths and I could even walk up the drifts onto the roofs of the bungalows, truly unreal event. I have however had better overall periods: 2009-2010 where we had about 30 days of snow on the ground, breaking up ice 4 inches thick on the road outside the house which was under a blanket of compacted snow, the Ice was literally like lifting slabs! Snow depths reaching a couple of feet at times. November - December 2010: snowed every day for 7 days in a row whereby the level snow depth in the garden hit waist height and then a 2 day break before the infamous stalling front from the North on the 6th decemeber, cheery bye transport minister and hello M8 Arctic carpark. March 2013 (don't recall the exact date).... An overnight period of perfect convection left over a foot of level snow and drifts but yet when I had left work in Bellshill to head home at 4am, there was barely a covering... Drove up to Newhouse and under the rail bridge towards Newmains and it was like I had drove into a different country such a localised event from memory. Red warning period 2018: never been so excited watching charts waiting for that to hit, the 3 or 4 day period was ridiculous! Insane charts!! And then February 2021.... Monumental 2 days here in Caldercruix, level snow hitting a foot and a half and drifts a fair bit higher. To go from nothing to the scenes that were here in the space of 2 days was unbelievable!: Ps those tiny little black spots in the snow are the top of the 3 foot rubber bollards to mark the edge of the road Okay so I got carried away but nice to reminisce before a potentially good spell materialising....

Well after being the party popper, the GFS has abruptly fell into line on the 12z this afternoon, spouting this out for Xmas day itself ECM this morning looks awesome too and UKMO probably slightly worse but not by much. I can't deny that I'm not starting to get a little excited.... Please don't collapse

Its not belittling or patronising.... It was clearly light hearted humour!!!!!! !!!

So which is it? I think given today's outputs it would tend to suggest that we are no closer to any certainty in any particular direction. All options still on the table. Can't help but think the spike in EAMT will throw a spanner In the works soon. Still too many factors involved at present to be confident of a particular outcome. Loving the viewing at present and the wealth of knowledge in the forum makes for great reading!

Can I ask what makes you think that is the most likely option 3 weeks down the line? I'll disregard the fact that you said just an hour or two ago that you don't do any long range stuff and you were only describing what the models showed within 10 day range. The long range MetO forecast changes.... Like the weather, funnily enough. It literally flips just as quickly as any new signal gets picked up and holds for a few days. If a new signal was to be picked up say in 3 days time and it was maintained for a few days, their long range wording would change. I find it more reactive, than proactive if I'm honest. Anyway, I know MetO forecast chat is not to be dwelled upon in this thread. I'm just curious as to your thinking that the high establishing and migrating East in around 3 weeks time is the most likely option? My incline is that 3 weeks is far too far out to weigh up what is the most likely option at this stage. Model volatility has been very prominent of late and the MJO forecast, strat disconnect, LA nina, E-QBO and recently hinted warming in the strat would throw more unreliability in the medium to long range likliehoods that I'm finding it hard to contemplate anything beyond the 5-10 day range at most. As cliche as it is, it seems very much up in the air for the time being but exciting to keep an overview of all the same.

It's getting its act together here now

Its an interesting read for sure however as he states himself, it has huge model bias towards a weak polar vortex as the forecast time period increases. Any model with model bias will always present its issues, such as the GFS having a bias to blow up low pressure systems etc but if you have a model bias of something as significant as lowering the strength of the polar vortex as time increases, then I can't fathom how a model forecasting a time period so far in advance, on its face value, could ever be taken seriously. What his article explains is potentially how it could be used as something more useful, but on its face value, that far in advance, its almost useless.... I say almost, because even a broken clock is right twice a day