Styx

A 'massive' flooding event now forecast for Victoria, including Melbourne. "We are going to have major, major, major flooding probably right around this state.." : BoM spokesman. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-30/victoria-weather-heavy-rains-floods-forecast/9209902

Stagnant heat over south-east Australia to be replaced by flooding rains from Friday. The state of Victoria may experience major flooding. In Tasmania, the falls won't be big enough to be a problem, but they are going to be welcome, especially in the east. After the rain moves off, its quite a cool start to summer for a while.

Sixth day in a row above 25c in Hobart today ( it reached 30.6c...the November average is 19c ). A seventh day will tie with the 1895 summer record. BoM is forecasting a 9 day stretch. Just a reminder that we are still officially in spring, and spring in Tasmania is normally defined by cool, changeable conditions. This uninterrupted warmth is great but very unsettling. November will finish with an maximum anomaly nearly +4c above the long-term average....nothing like that has ever happened before in any month.

BREAKING : Mt Agung, Bali erupting

...and this is what the record warm spell looks like so far, in Hobart. The next 7 days is forecast to be 31,29,25,25,28,24,22. At the end of the month, we'll be averaging round 22.4c for the month , which breaks the existing November average by almost a full degree. https://twitter.com/FFaztastic/status/932833067340783616 Anyway, hope you lot get the snow

Unprecedented out-of-summer heatwave in Tasmania with multiple days between mid 20s and very low 30s. So no extremes - just never before felt persistent warmth. A rare stagnant high over the Tasman Sea is drawing down air from north Queensland. Hobart is guaranteed 6 days in a row over 25c, even the summertime record is only 7, achieved only once, in 1895. The heat in the second half of the month is significant enough to smash the November average maximum and mean temperature records, the final figures may be a shock. This follows on from the warmest October on record here. There have never been two record warm months in a row.

14.4c here to the 15th, equal to the November 1981-2010 average. Significant increase expected over the next 10 days...

October - Hobart, Tasmania This was the warmest October in 135 years of records easily outdoing previous top ranker 1963 by 0.4 of a degree. Records were set for mean maximum and mean minimum temperature. The anomaly was +2.2c above 1981-2010 ( in brackets below ) or +2.3c above 1961-90. For Tasmania as a whole it was the second warmest October, behind 1963. Average maximum: 20.0 ( +2.7 ) Average minimum: 10.0 ( +1.7 ) Rainfall: 33mm ( average 61mm ) Rain days ( +1mm ): 8/from 16 Normally wet and windy with frequent fronts from the west, cold incursions wrapping up from the south and snow persisting in the mountains. This month, largely settled and mild to warm in a summery type pattern. Colder onshore winds from the east between the 4th-6th with low cloud, drizzle and a little rain. The wettest day was 11mm on the night of the 29th on a frontal rain band. Extremes in daily temperature for October ( records since 1882 ): Highest maximum: 31.9.....18th ( record 34.6 in 1987 ) Lowest maximum: 10.8.....4th ( record 6.0 in 1958 ) Highest minimum: 17.1.....19th ( record 20.2 in 1933 ) Lowest minimum: 5.4....31st ( record 0.0 in 1889 ) Records:

Warmest October on record here completely wiping out the three-month cold anomaly we have just had, can you believe it. The possibility of a weak La Nina developing may benefit Tasmania's eastern at some point which has been extremely dry for nearly half a year. With summer approaching the bushfire index threat is very high in susceptible areas. The Tasmanian east coast town of Swansea for example has had just 50mm total over the last 5 months.

Interesting stuff we are mimicking the situation down here almost exactly, an impressive heatwave for October just threw the month totally out of whack

I took this shot from the satellite on Tuesday, zoomed in because the cloud waves ahead of the front grabbed my attention from the main shot. I don't know if anyone knows whats going on here, just by looking at it?

+0.9c above average down here. It looks like the 3 month run of colder than normal months is coming to an end. Unfortunate.

Here's a fascinating story.. until we wait on Agungs next move. Seriously, there is too much I don't know about the first Australians and their story telling over the ages. When the bullin shrieked: Aboriginal memories of volcanic eruptions thousands of years ago http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-23/aboriginal-stories-of-volcanic-eruptions-when-bullin-shrieked/8835402

September - Hobart, Tasmania Coldest September for 14 years with a mean anomaly of -0.7c below 1981-2010 ( in brackets below ) or -0.5c below 1961-1990. It is third month in a row to be colder than the long-term and 61-90 average, making it the longest run of anomalous cold months since 2006 by those measurements. Average maximum: 15.1 ( -0.3 ) Average minimum: 5.8 ( -1.1 ) Rainfall: 46mm ( average 53mm ) Rain days ( +1mm ): 12/from 19 A wintry week in Tasmania between the 4th and 8th with significant snow to low levels in the west and north west at the start of this period, then further snow in the west and south on the 8th descending to low levels by the morning. In the Hobart area, snow settling at 400-500m on the 4th and 5th and to 200-300m into the 8th ( hill suburbs ). It is the only instance of snow on the ground in the Hobart metro area this year, all years tend to have between 1 and 3 such events, but rarely more. Further brief settled snow on the local mountain range to 900m on the 14th, near 700m on the 16th and above 1000m on the 19th. A good snow cover to near 400m into the 30th then a rapidly milder wind change. The wettest day was 10mm on the 24th together with an overnight thunderstorm. This was the same frontal system that relieved south east mainland from a day of record September heat, but it lost its moisture on its northward track. Pre-frontal cloud and winds from the north-west rather than the north saved Tasmania from an extreme heat day. Extremes in daily temperature for September ( records since 1882 ) Highest maximum: 22.3.....21st ( record 31.0 in 1987 ) Lowest maximum: 9.3.....5th ( record 6.1 in 1885 ) Highest minimum: 11.3.....24th ( record 18.0 in 1973 ) Lowest minimum: 1.0.....1st ( record -0.8 in 1897 )

Hmm Ok. Anyway, perhaps I should dedicate this mornings snowy scene from Hobart to you. We have no interest in absurd summer type heat this spring, down here. It is going to be a brisk morning at the market

Thanks for your interest, I have a lot of fun writing about the weather and looking at the statistics and records, everything can be found on the BoM website, great resource. I agree, it is entirely possible that record temperatures may have been exceeded before they had weather stations to record them! I believe I am correct in saying this, but there has been a fairly good network of weather stations since 1910 across Australia.. and newer stations have been added to the network. It is the sheer number of significant heat record events compared to cold weather events since 2000 or so that suggests a big imbalance is going on. When the Special Climate Statement comes out take a read of it to judge the significance of what has just happened. I will put up a link on here when they release it. They'll list the dozens of records that fell and mention long the sites have been operating and they'll compare it with previous September events in terms of the area involved. I always think they are fair in how they analyse it all. Whats the witch about anyway, am I meant to be seeing a secret message?!

A great natural wonder for sure and I love the idea they have 300 years of observations. I am sure people are thinking that its only a matter of time before there are two or more years in a row when the snow patches don't hold on during the warmer seasons... How small does it have to get before they say it is no longer a snow patch? What happens if the Sphinx shrinks to, say, 20cm in length by tomorrow but is then covered over by fresh snowfall on top of it for days/weeks...it would be difficult to know whether it is still there. What particular weather anomaly over the last few months/or couple of years since the big snow falls of 2015 has caused this to happen again? Heat or lack of snowfall at useful times or both?

Brisbane's highest September temperatures ( records since 1889 )....average 26 1.....38.3.....1943 2.....37.0.....2017 3.....35.1.....2008 and 1912 4.....34.9.....2003

Interesting, I will be tuning into this subject a little bit more I think, I haven't paid too much attention over the years. I remember Pinatubo in 1991, it did seem to me and others I have got to say, that the sun seemed diluted by a light haze, always persistent, the following winter/spring was terrific and cold. Something brewing in Vanuatu right now.

Queensland does it joining New South Wales and Victoria in recording its hottest September temperature today. It was 42.8c at Birdsville a 0.4c rise from the previous monthly record for the state. One other location in southern Queensland beat the old record too and another one tied with it. There were numerous other readings of 41c in the south. New South Wales beat its Saturday record ( 40.5 ) reaching 41.3 at Delta, in the north-west of the state. Another three towns exceeded 40c again which hadn't happened in September before Saturday in NSW. It now looks like the top 10 hottest September temperatures on record in New South Wales and maybe as many as 15 occurred on Saturday and today. Alice Springs was 38.2c its third highest reading for September. It's all over now for major state records. Brisbane may record its second hottest September day of 35c tomorrow but it'll be a battle between hot air drawing into the south-east of Queensland ahead of a cooler wind change progressing north and a seabreese. I have noticed in the past the seabreese often wins out when extreme heat is forecast for Brisbane city, slightly inland there is no issue that it is going to be very hot.

Mount Agung in Bali, Indonesia is showing signs of trouble. Last erupted in 1964 and caused a worldwide drop in temperature of between 0.1-0.4c. It would need to blow quite soon I would imagine if its going to be a good backup for good winter weather setups over there

It's going to go very close! The September record is 38.8c in 2003. Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting 38 on Tuesday and 37 on Wednesday then it's going to come down. The average is 29c this time of year, Alice is +2c up on the maximum average this month but -2c below on the minimum average. BoM are now forecasting the heat to make a re-entry into north-west New South Wales on Wednesday. They have forecast tops of 41 and 42c for some outback towns in that part of the state, like Bourke. NSW got their state record of 40.5c on Saturday, a big 0.9c leap from the old record, now there's a chance of adding another 2c on top of that.

Why the records fell everywhere. That's it for now!

That's it for the heat in New South Wales. A remarkable weekend and one for the history books for the month of September in Australia. Meteorologist Blair Trewin says 80% of New South Wales spatial area is likely to have had a September record maximum on Saturday. A Special Climate Statement is coming. The heat is piling into Queensland now. That state is likely to record its hottest September temperature too, on Tuesday or Wednesday, in the southern inland area. It needs to exceed 42.4c somewhere. Brisbane needs 38.3c for a record September high, a chance of that happening on Wednesday if a seabreeze doesn't cut in. I'll report back on those records if it happens, would be hard not to really. On a more comfortable note Hobart looks certain to have its third colder than average month in a row ( 61-90 comparison and long-term average )...that hasn't happened since 2006! very nice.

Six locations in New South Wales broke the September record for that state today and two others tied with the old record. The high was 40.5c at Willcania in north-west NSW, they bettered the state record by 0.9c. The Sydney Morning Herald says that 40% of all sites in New South Wales ( which in area is three times the size of the United Kingdom ) broke their September record today. If that's not a reporting error - that is something amazing. The Sydney metro had temperatures ranging from 32.2c at the main site near the harbor, but 34-37c pretty much everywhere else, the top end temperatures are records. Victoria set a new September record for that state too, a high of 37.7c at Mildura, bettering the old state record by 0.3c. It was 30.6c in Melbourne ( fourth hottest September day and 13c above average ) . ---------------------------------- Lastly Canberra.... Canberra's highest September temperatures ( records since 1939 ): 1.....30.2.....2017 2.....28.6.....1965...26th 3.....28.0.....1980 4.....26.9.....1981 5.....26.8.....1965...25th