Styx

A nice snow treat for Western Australia! According to the BOM, light snow will settle on the Stirling Ranges ( 1095m ) about twice a year. It is 500km/310miles south of Perth. I think it's the only mountain range in WA that ever gets any. Seems to be a bit of a sport for the snow starved folk in the west to head up there whenever it is forecast. More snow possible this afternoon and tonight as another cold front crosses south-west Western Australia.

June - Hobart, Tasmania Exceptionally dry and mild. This was the second-driest June in 136 years of records and the fourth warmest for average maximum temperature. Nights were relatively cooler dragging back the mean anomaly, but that still came in at +1.1c above the 1981-10 average ( in brackets below ). The anomaly for the 1961-90 period rounds out to +1.1c. Average maximum: 13.9 ( +1.5 ) Average minimum: 5.9 ( +0.6 ) Rainfall: 7mm ( average 53mm ) Rain days ( +1mm ): 3/from 5 The 1st-17th was dry. This 17 day dry spell is a new winter record. An uninterrupted belt of high across southern Australia left Tasmania in a predominantly mild west-north west airstream, drying out completely once it crossed the island to reach the eastern side. A weak front on the morning of the 18th brought 0.2mm. Follow up rain bearing fronts on the 21st, 23rd and 29th brought 1-3mm but only a shower or two in the colder air which followed behind. Light snow cover on the mountain to 400-500m on the morning of the 24th and 30th. Extremes in daily temperature for June ( records since 1882 ): Highest maximum: 17.5......20th ( record 20.6 in 1906 ) Lowest maximum: 10.1.......30th ( record 4.3 in 1985 ) Highest minimum: 10.2......12th ( record 15.0 in 2016 ) Lowest minimum: 0.6......22nd ( record -2.8 in 1972 ) ------------------------------------- Special presentation

The standout low temperature last night was -8.7c in Canberra. That was the third coldest July temperature recorded in the capital. In Tasmania, the low was -9.7c in the Great Lake region which is in the central part of the island. Hobart city had 1c, it is becoming increasingly rare to hit a zero ( it has only happened three times this century ), I suspect a rapid increase in sea surface temperature off the east coast could be mostly responsible for that. That also poses problems for snow events which have always been marginal. It won't be as cold tonight. ------------------------- Canberra's lowest July temperatures on record ( records since 1939 ) 1......-10.0......11th 1971 2......-8.9........13th 1971 3......-8.7........ 1st 2017 4......-8.6.........3rd 1971 5......-8.4.........12th 1971

This map looks quite remarkable. I don't know how this June stacked up in comparison to historically dry starts to winter on the raw numbers yet, but it will be interesting to find out when those figures are released tomorrow. Meantime temperatures are forecast to plummet across southern and south eastern Australia tonight. It follows cold dry air in the wake of a cold front last night that didn't produce much in the way of showers or elevated snow. The first -10c of the season is possible in Tasmania and Hobart city may get close to rare freeze. Melbourne will too which is really rare for them. And Canberra is heading for a -7c!

The unusually dry start to winter in southern Australia is now breaking records, notably for consecutive days without rain for a winter season, and low or zero rainfall up to this date in June. A stubborn belt of high pressure stretches from the Indian Ocean out to the Tasman Sea. This time of year is normally associated with Southern Ocean fronts bringing showers or rain to Australia's south. Hobart has just notched up its 17th consecutive rain free day which is a winter record, the old record is 16 recorded only twice, in records dating back to 1893. We might even reach the giddy number of 20 which would be astonishing, matching historically long dry spells, the vast majority which have been recorded in summer! I can not believe what the temperature is doing either. With no cold fronts cutting through and winds persistently from the west or milder north west, the average is sky high. We are nearing an average maximum for June of 15c, almost 1 degree higher than the previous record, and 2.5C up on the recent 30 year average. On the mainland, the mean maximum is moving up now, but is closer to the average, but minima is generally below or well below under calm, high pressure skies. There looks like a breakdown is on the cards soon, frontal activity bringing more seasonal wintry type changes. Hopefully some snow for the mountains. Up until then we have a bit of history in the making.

Alice Springs currently has a June average minimum of -0.8c to the 9th, the running average by the 16th will be close to -1.0c...a full 6 degrees colder than average for June for central Australia.

Dominant high pressure in charge across most of a Australia for quite some time now with no major change in the medium term. Widespread below average temperatures at night away from the coast, and daytime temperatures seem to be a bit below normal too. Maybe we'll finish up with a dry, colder than average month to start winter nationally, but too early to tell right now. Tasmania is a bit milder being on the bottom flank of the high so nothing too cold here, more like late autumn weather really, cool and calm. This weekend is the traditional opening of the ski season on the mainland, some of the main resorts have opened already catering for minor activities, like snow play, sledding and some piste runs. The snow guns have done most of the work, churning it out in the cold and frosty conditions. There was about 20cm of natural snow cover at the end of May at high range, but that's all. There are no snow bearing fronts on the horizon, they would be wanting something to show up by the end of the month I think.

May - Hobart, Tasmania Autumn ends quietly with temperatures coming down to near average. The monthly anomaly was -0.2c under the 1981-2010 years, making this the first cooler than average month since November. Compared to the 1961-1990 years, it was +0.2c up. Average minimum: 7.6 ( -- ) Average maximum: 14.7 ( -0.4 ) Rainfall: 28mm ( average 47mm ) Rain days (+1mm): 8/from 14 Mainly mild to begin with, but colder on the 2nd and 7th behind fronts that were largely rain free with only a follow up shower or two, but a dusting of snow on the mountain above 1000m at night and at first during the day. From the 8th-21st high pressure dominated at Tasmania latitude, but weak fronts and low pressure troughs extending south often made it cloudy but settled. Short periods of drizzle or showers, mainly in onshore easterly winds. High pressure consolidated to the east after this, bringing mild air from the continent. A more zonal westerly pattern developed towards the end of the month, with progressively colder air feeding in from the south. The 30th was reasonably cold and cloudy with occasional showers behind the most active front of the month, with snow settling near 900m throughout the day. Extremes in daily temperature for May ( records since 1882 ): Highest maximum: 20.7.....22nd ( record 25.7 in 1997 ) Lowest maximum: 9.0.....30th ( record 6.1 in 1921 ) Highest minimum: 12.2.....23rd ( record 16.2 in 2005 ) Lowest minimum: 4.1.....31st ( record -1.6 in 1902 ) -------------------------------------- Despite our coolish end to autumn, it was another historically warm season

Autumn charts. Now time for winter... Mean anomaly ( 1961-90 ): March: +1.7 Third warmest on record April: +0.1 May: +0.7

An unusually think fog settled over Brisbane this morning. These pictures are courtesy of Channel 9 In Tasmania autumn is ending dry, settled and cool. March was exceptionally warm and April was very mild, so at least the temperature anomaly is coming down. The thing I am noticing is the lack of snow this autumn. A dusting of snow has covered the mountains to about the 1000m level for a few hours on just three separate days. That's about as bad as it gets. So no action from the Southern Ocean injecting sub Antarctic air over us...yet.

April - Hobart, Tasmania After a very warm start to autumn temperatures backed off in April but it was still a very mild month. The anomaly was +0.9c compared to the 1981-2010 period ( in brackets below ) or +0.8c above the 1961-90 period. The March anomaly was a massive +1.8c. We have not had a cooler than average month here since November. Average maximum: 19.2 ( +1.4 ) Average minimum: 9.8 ( +0.4 ) Rainfall: 22mm ( average 51mm ) Rain days (+1mm): 5/from 9 April followed the pattern of March. The first three weeks averaged warm and dry, with strong high pressure over southern Australia, mainly centered to the east of Tasmania. On the 9th, a low pressure system formed over Bass Strait on a front moving in from the west. Onshore winds with moisture from the low brought 8mm, the wettest day of the month. The final week saw a more typical westerly stream with embedded fronts at 36-48hr intervals bringing 2-4mm each time, mostly on the frontal rain band itself. On the 26th, cold air behind the first decent front of the season. Temperatures dropped to single figures during the afternoon, followed by the coldest night of the year, and the first settled snow of the year on the mountain by the next morning - a dusting to near 900m, but this melted away quickly after sunrise. Extremes in daily temperature for April ( records since 1882 ): Highest maximum: 25.5.....6th ( record 31.0 in 2014 ) Lowest maximum: 12.6.....26th ( record 7.7 in 1967 ) Highest minimum: 15.2.....9th ( record 18.6 in 1959 ) Lowest minimum: 3.3......27th ( record 0.7 in 1888 )

What an incredible cold weather record for Darwin. tropicbreeze I found that background explanation really interesting. The official Tuesday maximum was 21.9c which beats the previous April record by 2.7c. The Darwin weather site has been reporting since 1941. Darwin has only had two colder days, but in the winter ( or the tropical dry season ). They were 21.1c and 21.8c in July 1968. And taking a look at the steamy tropical season alone which is now winding down, the previous record low maximum was 24.0c in December 1954. Lowest daily maximum in April for Darwin ( records since 1941 ): 1......21.9......2017 2......24.6......1954 3......24.8......1998 4......25.2......1956 5......25.4......1959 and 1948 ------------------------------------------------ Darwin became the third of Australia's 8 major cities to break a cold weather record this year. I am not sure whether that has happened before. In February, Perth recorded it's coldest day for that month and Canberra it's coldest February temperature.

Substantially cold too. Darwin had a maximum of 21.5c today, the monthly average is 32c and it doesn't deviate much from that day to day. At 7:30pm this evening it is 19c. The April record low maximum is 24.6c in 1954 so it seems highly likely that another rare cold weather record will be set at 9am tomorrow, when the temperature day ends.

March - Hobart, Tasmania A warm start to autumn which follows on from a moderately warm summer. This was the third warmest March on record. The mean temperature anomaly was 1.8c above the 1981-2010 period ( listed in brackets below ). Compared to the 1961-90 period the mean anomaly is the same. Recent Marchs here have been exceptionally warm: Average maximum: 22.4 ( + 2.1 ) Average minimum: 12.9 ( +1.5 ) Rainfall: 37mm ( average 45mm ) Rain days ( +1mm ): 8/from11 For the first 20 days of the month high pressure dominated to the east. On days when the city had cooler seabreezes or a wind change following weak fronts, it was almost persistently warm away from the coast and in the central north. A notable interruption to the pattern occurred on the 11/12th, as a small low formed over eastern Victoria, extending a trough down Tasmania's east coast. 10mm fell in the city over a 36 hour period. The major weather break occurred between the 21st-23rd as a low pressure trough extended down Australia's east coast. Forming a low over waters to Tasmania's north east, there were two to three days of onshore easterly winds bringing showery drizzle at times, cool sea air and hill fog. Clearing to mild to warm and mainly dry for the rest of the month, then a more significant front late on the 29th paving the way for much cooler but drier air to follow. Extremes in daily temperature for March ( records since 1883 ): Highest maximum: 32.1....14th ( record 37.3 in 2008 ) Lowest maximum: 15.8....22nd ( record 8.9 in 1925 ) Highest minimum: 20.7....16th ( record 21.1 in 1906 ) Lowest minimum: 5.7....31st ( record 1.8 in 1926 )

Fresh from the BOM, third warmest March on record for Australia

News coming in this morning that police fear multiple people may have drowned in flood waters in north east NSW, as ex-tropical cyclone Debbie causes major flooding and evacuations in south-east Queensland, into north-east NSW. 24 hour rainfall totals exceeding 300mm.

The sun will be up shortly so helicopters will be up in the sky doing the first aerial shots. Emergency vehicles will be out doing the first check up on residences and an initial property damage assessment. Luckily the eye came in south of Bowen, it would have been worse if came in there.

Latest map issued at 2am AEST: Updates every hour: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml Good morning everyone. I have gotten up early this morning to see the latest developments. In the last 18 hours or so everything has shifted south. Severe cyclone Debbie is heading for the town of Bowen ( population 10,000 ), with the deeper red circle graphic indicating the potential for very destructive winds, which extends south to the resort island of Hamilton Island ( population 1000 + 600 tourists ) and Airlie Beach ( population 8,000 ). The 12 noon landfall is 1am British time Tuesday. According to the BOM this will be a high end category 4. The town of Bowen in particular will get a real battering. I don't have anything more useful to say because every media outlet including social media is all over it. Debbie is being compared to Yasi but there is not much mention of Marcia, which was a category 5 cyclone crossing just south of the above locations in February 2015. 350 homes were destroyed by her and the damage bill was something like $800 million. It would be expected that most residents who live in structurally vulnerable homes are out of there now or have gone to local shelter.

Get Out Now screams the front page of Queensland's major daily newspaper this morning. With 24 hours to go and few updated tracking maps later, hardly anything has changed from the BOM perspective...intense cyclone Debbie with wind speeds of 230km/143miles ph is heading straight for the town of Ayr.

No one is talking about the existential threat to the coral reef along that stretch of coastline; already in a weakened state following another mass bleaching event. Huge swells will surely make much more of it vulnerable. A mid Tuesday morning landfall happens to coincide with a high tide...notable storm surge possible. The latest cyclone track map from the BOM ( released 1.5 hours ago ) spares Townsville from a potential destructive event. BOM is updating every 3 hours. Other weather models are not as kind, showing Debbie making landfall closer to Townsville. I see that the town of Ayr has a population of near 10,000 with some fairly basic standard homes. If the outlook stays the same the situation looks dire for property damage/losses.

An intensifying cyclone is approaching Queensland - due to make landfall near Townsville ( pop 175,000 ) on Tuesday morning. Only two other cyclones have crossed the coast this season in remote areas, at category 1/2.

A very warm start to autumn across central and southern Australia. Up to the 19th Hobart is registering an anomaly of +3.0C which is well above the monthly March record. Temperatures are due to fall close to the long-term average over the reliable forecast period so the final figure will be close. We have had 3 days over 30C this month more than the entire summer period.

February - Hobart, Tasmania A very dry end to summer with a close to average temperature for the month. There was no temperature anomaly compared to the 1981-2010 figures ( listed below ), but it was +0.4C warmer than the 1961-90 period. Average maximum: 22.9 ( +0.8 ) Average minimum: 11.8 ( -0.8 ). Rainfall: 10mm ( average 39mm ) Rain days ( +1mm ): 4/from 7 This was the driest February since 2003 but it fell short of a historical top ten ranking. February is traditionally the driest month of the year but this year was much drier than normal with an absence of late summer rain bearing systems ( upper low pressure troughs extending south from the continent, cut off lows over the Tasman Sea, or storms on fronts moving in from the west ). These events are fairly irregular. This was an unusual month for not having a 30 degree day, but there were several warm and pleasant days which fell 2 or 3 degrees short. Extremes in daily temperature for February ( records since 1882 ): Highest maximum: 28.1.....22nd ( record 40.1 in 1899 ) Lowest maximum: 17.2.....13th ( record 9.6 in 1964 ) Highest minimum: 16.6.....9th ( record 24.7 in 1912 ) Lowest minimum: 8.5.....25th ( record 3.4 in 1980 ) ---------------------------------------------------------------- This summer will be remembered for an absence of hot days. The highest temperature of 31.3C was the lowest for any summer since 1977/78, and only two days exceeded 30C, the lowest number of days since the summer of 2001/02 when there was a rare one. Nevertheless, this was a warmer summer than average with an anomaly of +0.7C above the 1981-2010 numbers, or +1.0C above the 1961-90 numbers. The mean minimum was 12.5C and the mean maximum was 22.6C. There was more sunshine than average. Summer rainfall was 127mm ( 90% of the long-term average )

A selection of maps from the BOM reviewing the summer. The cool and tropical summer in the west ( wettest on record in Western Australia ) wasn't enough to balance out the heat in New South Wales ( hottest summer on record ) and Queensland ( second hottest ). It is the biggest east-west split in conditions I have seen for a very long time which almost makes looking at the national averages slightly meaningless this time around Summer temperature anomaly ( 1961-90 ) Dec.....+0.7 Jan.....+0.8 Feb.....+0.3

Is there a good chance now that the upcoming summer will break the annual record low based on whats been happening over the last few months? Or is it impossible this far out to determine roughly what that low point will be?