Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

syed2878

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,929

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by syed2878

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

     blizzard81  I know the ECM and what is showing today is 2 lot of peoples liking. However, this winter has not covered its self in glory. Although it’s good continuity from last night, I have noticed with ECM it for this winter. Always manages to blow up at the last minute T90 6T 120. So anything the ETM showing on today’s runs, I would take it with a huge peach of salt The GFS has a habit of blowing up Atlantic laws however, this winter, I think it performed quite well.

    • Like 3

    Midlands regional discussion - Winter 23/24

    in Midlands Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I was hoping against hope that we would see some snow today, but it’s not meant to be here now it’s raining. 😣😠😞😖😡🤬😬😒What a crappy winter this has been with all the positive background signals this winter, so far has been a total bust I know we have a few more weeks, but I have now called it full-time on this winter. I was hoping against hope that we would see some snow today, but it’s not meant

    • Like 4

    Model banter and emotions

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Disappointing model I put today it’s always day 10 with ECM that been the story of this winter, so much positive signals, but to many failures as for next weeks wintry output from the ECMI would take it with a huge pinch of salt. Just a side note. Matt has cancelled the yellow warning for this area on Thursday. 😣😠😖😡🤬😒😒😞😬😬

    Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    "Background signals" haven't failed, though. They only take you so far and micro details are important, shorter range changes are important. There have been several rounds of strat warming and it seems the most recent one "reflected" if you like, this helped to draw the Canadian PV eastwards towards Siberia which flattened out what previously should have been a more promising pattern for cold. 

    Things change, forecasts evolve. Anyone expecting snow outside their front door or cold in a small area such as the UK purely based on teleconnections doesn't understand them, or is placing far too much emphasis on their ability to predict the micro pattern. Broadscale pattern they've done incredibly well this winter. 

    Unfortunately, short-term prospects that simply cannot be forecasted at range (such as the SSW) can disrupt and change expectations. That doesn't make the teleconnections/background drivers useless.

    The background drivers (GSDM, MJO etc) should be used as diagnostics of possible broadscale patterns and to provide context to NWP modelling, they cannot be used to say "London will see snow in 2 weeks". Forecasts constantly evolve and unfortunately on this occasion, unforecastable consequences have disrupted expectations. It's not about being right or wrong, it's about analysing the situation based on the evidence you have available and forming a conclusion, when the evidence changes or shifts so must too the formed conclusion, that's just the nature of this game.

     In a way, the background signals and telly connections did fail for somewhere like the UK. They are pretty much useless if I may say 

    • Like 9

    Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Catacol said:

    And so the cold snap ends. Snap rather than a spell - 9/10 for the depth and quality of the cold (I loved the frost free dry cold and then the intense frost that broke the fuel flap on my car!) and I daresay 9/10 for many in Scotland or parts of the NW who love snow. The NW probably viewed a scandy trough dropping in with a sense of "been here before" - and then low and behold the trough developed a curious westerly and many parts cashed in. The wonderful variability of the weather. But the overall 9/10 has to lose 3 points for the shorter than expected duration, and then a further point for the failed channel runner and anything for the south. Those in the east (like me) would probably knock a further 1 off for the absence of any north sea activity. Lands as a sort of 4 or 5/10 for me.

    We have been unlucky with events in the strat this season, no doubt about that. First the SSW that failed at the start of the month that could have done much to cement a cold month (and was probably a key factor in suggestions from the MetO) and then a second warming that split the vortex but has turned into a reflection type of warming, where wave forcing bounces off the strat back towards the trop and helps reinforce default westerlies. Laid out nicely in Amy Butler's recent blog. And frankly a frustration....but one we have to live with. Coincides with IO MJO phases and the lagged impacts the elastic band of AAM being at the wrong end of the "ping" have ensured. Hey presto - cold out very fast, violently mobile atlantic arrives. The weather may be chaotic, but it is also broadly predictable once drivers lock in.

    And that broad predictability is what lends significant wintry optimism going forward. First of all, the ebb and flow of momentum that is the GWO.

    image.thumb.png.a50efb81548c98def8f795813af62175.png

    Look at the patterns here. Note that prior to our December snap and again prior to our January snap we saw a rising orbit take hold. This graphical representation of global windflows gives a strong indication as to whether the atmosphere is predisposed to encourage blocking, and to see the next orbit kick in we need a rising momentum profile.

    And here it is. This has been sluggish - I thought the gun had been fired a few days ago...but it appears now that 16 Jan was the moment we hit the starting button. Frictional torque distinctly positive

    image.thumb.png.44feba635126a7c7712edcde26855225.png

    Mountain torque generally positive also

    image.thumb.png.edabd883168b1fdb702800ec8c8a106c.png

    and this produces the awaited beginning of the next surge in momentum illustrated by a positive tendency now in play

    image.thumb.png.7324f51874f8c7b6a3d269336c8b2685.png

    This will accelerate, not least because the MJO is coming back to where snow lovers want it - phases 6/7/8/1 broadly speaking

    image.thumb.png.48ecff26f92205aaf15caee6e4ecfcc1.png

    So. We watch and wait with anticipation given GLAAM has remained positive overall and we are in a back loaded Nino context. The atlantic will fizz for the 5 days or so I have flagged before as the likely window, and then we will gradually see the effects of the forcings listed above impact on NWP. There are signs already, as expected catching the eye around 26/27/28 Jan. Note ridging towards Scandy on the EPS for the end of the week

    image.thumb.png.49e113db40eab5ecc25c40d447b62503.png

    quite pronounced by the end of the weekend

    image.thumb.png.1e97be03d79a707085ba8ceaf64b9da2.png

    Someone earlier said there was little sign of such developments, and used GEFS 850s as the tool to evidence it. Worst possible source of evidence for extended forecasting possible. Don't get swayed by such stuff.

    Disappointing to see the intense cold depart so soon, frustrating that the strat has refused to play ball so far, but winter a long way from done and the mild I suspect will be an interlude rather than a pattern starter. I still see February as blocked and have faith in the recent Glosea, JMA, CMC and other long range models that see a -AO overall. Plenty of time still to roll those dice again and get lucky.

     

     

     I would rather have mild and sunny than the cold spel we had. Models some of them really going for the weekend storm.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    57 minutes ago, Nick123 said:

    For the north the cold spell is just beginning. Maybe be only 3-5 days but there's a chance of snow. Not trying to rub it in but this forum would have you believe there is no cold spell at all which isn't true!

     You’re right of course, there is a cold spell for the usual parts of the UK majority no and as for the Telekon connections well less said the better it is models today look horrendous to say the least Atlantic barrelling through cold and dry for majority of us not what we were expecting 😒😒😩😣😖😠😠😡🤬

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    55 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

    Gong to be some right pants pulled down here unfortunately if this does turn out to be standard January weather from mid month. That’s not a dig or anything like that as all the teleconnectiins etc pointed towards that. More so points to the fact that nearly all most understood drivers were lining up in a positive way and the technical guys feeling comfortable yet “maybe” the blinking wheels are still falling off .

     Excellent Post, the cold spell now looking like the wheels are falling off. This is why I never pay too much attention to tell connections. Fairplay to those who do use Telekon connections, but I don’t think they can be used as a forecasting tool for the UK. I must say disappointing ECM for the last day or two.

    • Like 1
    • Insightful 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Duane S. said:

    Despite concerted and at times desperate efforts to drag down the mood on here, everything looks as expected this morning for a decent cold spell for us.

    All within the envelope. Unfortunately, at this early stage, the outer edges of said envelope will never be a wintery nirvana. This has forever been the case for the UK and a cold spell, notwithstanding AGW has likely slightly widened that envelope over the past 30 years.

    There is a fine line between excellent pragmatism (i.e. Nick Sussex, Blue Army) and oh look at me I told you (several-dozen-bleeding-times-a-day…) it wouldn’t be -20 uppers and a 3 month long cold spell (glossing over the fact that nobody had actually said anything remotely like that). I exaggerate of course, but I’m sure most get my point…

    Of course the Azores high is a massive driver. If you look back at my first post of the winter, back in early November I went to pains to point out that I felt the story of this winter will be a very ’active’ displaced Azores high. This has good and bad consequences. For a start a Euro high ought to be less of a concern. Retrogression likelihood to be a lot higher than usual but yes 🙄 that brings about the potential of a negative NAO with it. I’ll take that risk thanks.

    There is no hard fast way to guarantee winter weather to our balmy shores, there will always be jeopardy involved.  Thats why 95% of people,like myself, visit this forum every winter. It’s as much about the chase and the enjoyment (and otherwise 🫣) of it all along the way. Most on here are long enough in the tooth to know things will likely go wrong, to a degree or another, thanks. Ignoring a user is all well and good but it doesn’t stop them being the centre of attention and thus part of half of the thread posts quoting them. 

    Again. There will be no kudos for pointing out what could go wrong every time there is a cold spell chase. Anyone could just as easily copy and paste that every time as well. And guess what? They will end up being correct most of the time 👏 But that, I thought?, isn’t why the vast majority of us come on this forum every winter. 

     

     A very good Post. If you look at all the runs so far, it does fit in with what Exeter is thinking The text actually does state that the will be mild runs or intervals short lived and more cold with wintry hazards.

    • Like 3
×
×
  • Create New...