syed2878
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Posts posted by syed2878
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1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:
I'm quite bemused by the ones calling off a cold Xmas period..The signs are it will actually be pretty cold around Xmas eve too Boxing day. There is quite the cluster of cold ens for this period.
And you know what really crunches my gears? Those who not only say the output is going badly wrong and is now doomed to failure,but the ones who now reckon the met will revise there update! The model volatility is clear to see,and those nuisances around the states are the main reason..Same thing every year on here though....a few bad runs and it's Exeter to back down and give it 2 or so more weeks it will be we are running out of time,then a couple more weeks the towels will be rinsed tight and thrown at great speed right in the direction of this forum.
Teleconnections for me leave much to be desired,especially in the UK and the fact we have so many bizarre things going on with our climate in this day and age. But even so the met do mention colder conditions towards mid month as well! So Perhaps not a well rounded and formed or even coupled SPV...or perhaps even a little hint of a strat disturbance..ie...displacement or even a full on split.
So much to be decided,but the key word here is the next couple of days will not be deciding anything.
And take a tip from your truelly...if the output is freying your nerves right now and getting you down,then simply take a little break and spend it with your family and friends..it is Xmas after all..and the models will still be there when you come back!
A bad day today can become a fab day tomorrow...dont get hung up over it.
Totally agree with this excellent post. The Met office will not change their outlook just on one GFS or 1ECMWF run I’m pretty sure that they have a lot more data than we have two hand
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2 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:
Don't focus on what you could have had focus in what you've already got
. Personally, I know others may disagree but this has been my favourite Winter so far since I've joined here and the amout of negativity here is amazing because we're going to have to take from what we've got. Anyone who reads my posts know I prefer to drink from the glass that's half full rather than being negative, just my personal view. Just because we haven't seen amazing historic looking Winters in the last few Years doesn't mean we shouldn't enjoy what we've got. We've got to take the cards we've been dealt.
To be honest, this cold still hasn’t been all that it was dry for majority of us and looking at the model. I don’t think we will return to cold soon just my opinion though, others might view it differently
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3 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:
Localized zonality is definitely a valid concept
Hi Kasim can you provide us with a link regarding this so I can read to get a better understanding i’m sure lot of us would like that
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8 minutes ago, MKN said:
There has been quite a few winters over the past 20 years in Scotland where even the mountains have been pretty much void of any snow.
I don’t disagree with that, however given Scotland’s position it is true that because they being up north it’s more cold and snowy up there anyway
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53 minutes ago, jellybaby1969 said:
To generalise Scotland to be cold and snowy is absolute folly... Yes the Highlands and Mountains may well be cold and snow... but most inhabited area being major towns and cities look distinctly average
Even in the most dire winters Scotland manages to get snow and going by today’s output and the mets extended forecast. I think Scotland will be snowy. Where is England Wales will highly likely to have rain. Personally, I don’t think it’s a foly to generalise Scotland be snowy
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11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
You know things are a bit uncertain upstream to say the least when NCEP look to see what the ICON and JMA show . I’ve never seen those models mentioned before . Seems a bit desperate !
This last paragraph from them .
“An examination of the ICON and JMA models support a solution closer to the ECMWF/CMC/ECENS for fronts and pressures , so the forecast was hedged in that direction ...... more weighting towards the ECENS mean by Friday and Saturday.”
Hi Nick it is rather surprising they using the icon and Jma the thing is though if I right in saying that the jma is also used by the UK Met office quite a lot.
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2 hours ago, bluearmy said:
I’d happily take Paris ……
Hi BA does ec46 still have the blocky signal or has it lost it now?
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1 hour ago, pureasthedriven said:
Not sure what you’ve had by way of snow - not much I guess, I got very lucky down here Sunday and the snow has barely moved all week. And that was after a really cold few days prior to that. Really significant and increasingly rare ‘proper’ cold spell. Which, staying just in topic, was modelled to break down days ago. Yes, I appreciate the set-up was different.
He is right because majority of the country did it get the snow some of you may have so in that sense. This cold spell was absolute crap looking at this evenings, I’ll put it seems the mild blip we were all discussing could now become a mild spell and this evenings model I’ll put rather Dyer for cold before and during Christmas
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Just before we get properly into the 12 hour runs here is the 10 day trend from the Met snow on the forecast for Sunday, but Atlantic to make inroads for the foreseeable.
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Just before we get in to the 18h run of gfs the MJO DISCUSSIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED I MABE WRONG BUT READING THE ARTICLE IT SEEMS THE MJO COULD BE FAVOURABLE FOR NORTHEN BLOCKING. HERE IS THE ARTICLE.
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13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
It is a little odd, but nothing surprises me in here any more! The uncertainty in the models starts T96, but those who have claimed everything post T168 is not worth looking at when it suits them, are now writing off the whole of December, based on, you’ve guessed it, FI charts.
I don’t think people are righty of December on, fi once our default pattern sets in it is quite hard to shift that pattern I think the UKMO will be on its own not only that but our default pattern south westerly verifies more often than not even at that far range
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I do hope we get something this evening and tomorrow. Anyway, here is a couple of photos from this morning. It’s not much
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23 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:
My thoughts as well, for the last several days I’ve had permanent frost cover out side the front of my house, even the car had a couple of cm’s on it ( all shaded ) with temps of them days hitting 4 to 5 c
Then today I’ve had a high of just 0.4c & dew point 0.1c
and the same as you, the lot has gone….what’s that all about ???
Agree with this last few days. Had frost all day, but today is all gone. strange that
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The cover we had some of it is melting away. I wonder if we are going to get more later or is this it for us for this cold spell it was good to see falling and settling snow which was not forecasted
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Rather surprising that the BBC or the Met office app not showing snow on the app correction met app is showing snow, but the BBC still yet not showing any
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Moderate snow here by Villa Park, leaving a good covering on all services on the weather apps this was not forecasted
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Lite snow here leaving a light, dusting on all surface
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Great evening of model watching again lovely charts for called lovers they think it’s all over it isn’t quite the fat lady not even warming her voice just yet. Off topic come on England bring it home.
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Just been looking at NOAA 6-1 and 8-14 days discussions and forecasters over there going 40% of this afternoons gfs for the USA AND 60% OF ECMWF 0H RUNS I don't know what it would mean for us here though.
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 40% of Today's
operational 12z GFS centered on Day 11, and 60% of Today's 0z European Ensemble
Mean centered on Day 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above Average, 4 out of 5, due to
good agreement among the dynamical and statistical tools over Alaska and the
western CONUS, offset by some disagreements in the eastern U.S.https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html
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1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:
Interesting output regarding the cold moving forward and the current thoughts from the met mention this potential for significant snow and even freezing rain pushing up from the SW...it has the scope to be very cold at times with some milder spells further South! But remaining very cold further North!
I'm thinking we are staring down the barrel of a ding dong battle of cold to the North and milder to the Sw...with clashes of these airmasses somewhere perhaps around more central/Southern areas. This cold air further North could easily be digging back South again...hence it stays cold further North...basically its not in a hurry to be pushed back! It's dense it's stubborn...a bit like the in laws at Xmas...you may want em gone after a while but they just refuse to bow down!
This spells one the most exciting periods of weather watching coming up over the next 7-10 days we have seen for a fair few years.
I can see another shift from the main models to colder again with the icon leading way.
Vorsprung durch Technik
If I remember correctly, then the icon was the model that did quite well during the BFTE 2018 could this be another glorious moment for the icon and set the trend here?
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Just before we get into the ups and downs of the 12 hour runs, here is the Mets 10 day trend. It is an interesting watch.
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It has been great watching these models counting down the cold Synoptics I hope we don’t get an SSW this side of new yeah all the SSW can help. Sometimes it will work the other way as well breaking down the pattern we are in and bring back the Atlantic
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Perfect synoptic output for the last week or so even sometimes model agreement but it I don’t think is going to happen just like December 2021 when models were showing wintry Synoptics but fell at the last hurdle sadly always the way for the UK
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Horrifying model runs today for the next couple of weeks. I think we will be at the mercy of the Atlantic it does not look good.
Anyway, despite what the models are showing I wish all members and staf at netweather her a very happy Christmas and I hope you all enjoy your selves with family and friends on Sunday. Still all is not lost the Met office going for call mid Jan so let’s wait and see what happens.