trisnow
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Posts posted by trisnow
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What does the big red anamoly mean CH?
I originally thought it meant that we were down on snow cover this year compared to last? But looking at the images we look to have quite a bit more this year where the red is?
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Not sure whether I should post this as I'm not adding anything to the discussion but just would like to say, from a utter novice point of view that it can be incredibly confusing reading this thread! Obviously love reading everyone's input but I keep seeing comments about it getting colder and then comments about no sign of cold in the models so not quite sure what to believe!
Are the folk who say they can see signs of cold using data not shown in the charts? A lot of the people who say they can't see cold coming tend to back it up with evidence, (not that I understand it when they do as a novice) but I don't see it happening with folk who predict cold so are they going on more of a hunch? Or is it that the charts out in FI have that much info packed in that some people can see a slight hint of cold?
Anyway, I love reading the posts as I'm sure a lot of novices do like me who are all looking for and wanting it to get colder so please don't take this as a dig as it isn't meant that way, just looking to understand a bit more.
Thanks
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I think it's a very good idea and will be quite telling but in which ways as yet, I don't know.
But the more information we can pull together the more chance we have of spotting something relevant to predicting weather pattern in seasons.
It does seem like the snow in eurasia is increasing year on year? n'est pas?
I decided to carry on with it. Main factor being I am off work with kidney stones so have time on my hands! Spent all day up to now and got to 20th October.It is all very up and down but I guess a good thing from this is that once up to date we will be able to use it as a comparison point for each current year? Be handy for next year when it starts again.
I'm hoping that when I get to mid November that 2009, 2010 and 2011 are all up at the top.
https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/14726-snow-percentage-eurasia-sep-nov-2004-2011-oct20th/
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Whilst it may be interesting, it's going to be very difficult to spot trends with just 7 years of data. Also, before you go spending hours on this, you should try to get an idea of what factors control the spread of snow cover through Autumn. What pressure patterns, jet stream patterns, is sea ice or open water better, el nino/la nina, PDO, AO, etc, etc. Even snow cover over N.America may have an influence!?
All these things have influences on others and each other, so trying to narrow down the cause of any possible trends may be very difficult or impossible at this time.
Anyway, all I'm saying is make sure you have some kinda plan before going ahead with this, read up on some journals to see what other research has been done, could help to point you in the right direction, perhaps show you what techniques you'll need to employ or simply indicate that it's going to be way more effort than you thought!
If you enjoy doing it though, then work away regardless!
Cheers BFTV,
Yup, I freely admit I no zilch about all the factors you mentioned there. I have a feeling that if I want to try and understand it all as much as possible then your comment "simply indicate that it's going to be way more effort than you thought!" might be the deciding factor for me as to whether I should carry on!
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I can't make head nor tail of that website...
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I'm using this to plot the growth on a year by year basis.
I've already spent a fair few hours as it is time consuming but can anyone see a point in me doing this before I carry on? Could it be useful to try and spot any trends??? Could this data then be compared with other data like La Nina, and all the negative or positive NAO or QBQ stuff I see you guys talking about (which I know nothing about) to spot any trends?
Within this graph the snowcover north of Siberia and Canada is not included.
https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/14725-snow-eurasia-2004-2011/
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I'm thinking about embarking on a (big!) task to work out the percentage of snow cover from the years I have available - so from 2004 to now and to plot this data into a graph, I may not do it though as it is a time-consuming task but the reason I ask this is that there may already be something out there that has already done this? Does anyone know of anything of the sort?
If I do it, I'm thinking it should it be on a date by date basis say from September 1st to Dec 1st? So as to see if there can be anything gathered from the data before the official start of winter (1st Dec)?
Oh and also if I did, should I not include the snow cover in Canada and Greenland etc? I'm thinking just Northern Europe/Siberia etc.
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I've been a little sad and worked out the snow coverage in terms of pixels since 2004 for the 9th October to see how it stands up at this point .....
YEAR PIXELS %
2010 = 18404 - %7.02
2006 = 17555 - %6.69
2004 = 16706 - %6.37
2009 = 14558 - %5.55
2011 = 14451 - %5.51
2007 = 14405 - %5.49
2005 = 14261 - %5.44
2008 = 11393 - %4.34
After the dump of snow thought I would see where we stand now in terms of snow cover compared to when I checked on 9th October
YEAR PIXELS %
2009 = 35817 - %0.1366
2011 = 34943 - %0.1332
2006 = 32697 - %0.1247
2005 = 32167 - %0.1227
2004 = 32088 - %0.1224
2010 = 31768 - %0.1211
2007 = 29308 - %0.1118
2008 = 28750 - %0.1096
I notice people talking about a correlation between snow cover in Siberia and harsh European Winters overall but when I have worked the total out before and today, there doesn't seem to be any correlation at all?? I wouldn't know where to begin to start looking in terms of data to try and find a correlation.
Look how 2010 has slumped in the latest figures.
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I've just been looking at a few webcams where I guesstimate the new snow (shown on the first image) to be on there ain't no snow there!
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Afternoon! Indeed amazing developements today!!
Very exciting, that area must be almost the size of the Ukraine?
These images like quite different, is the lower one 2 days behind or something? It doesn't show the new snow like the first one...
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Thanks Paul and Phil...
What the fudge? I refreshed the page a few times earlier to see if it made a difference but didn't, changed nothing on my PC, came back read your replies and viewed it again and it is there!
Ah well , technology. Cheers.
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Stewart's (Glacier Point) early thoughts for the Winter, ahead of the full forecast (issued in November) can be viewed here:
Yup, interesting to watch and listen to GP, just a query, in the text above the video player - it also states that the Powerpoint presentation link can be found below the video?
I can't see it??
I checked the source code and can see that there appears to be an iframe for the Google Doc embed but it isn't showing on the page for me. Using Firefox 7 if that helps.
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Quite a sizable new chunk abd other gains today that look very tasty indeed!
Wow! Huge chunk of snow today? Bigger than the whole of the UK? That's what we like
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Been snowing all morning in Zermatt 2'050 m unexpectedly I think? Luvverly
Indeed it doesn't look that well.
Am I right in thinking after looking at a few forecasts that it looks like a fair amount of snow is due in Russia over the next week or so? Most at the weekend I think in the areas that need bumping up?
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Thanks RD, yup had a look and couldn't see a Model Discussion archive.
Maybe this is a new sub-forum this yar then?
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Sorry as this is sort of off-topic but - are there threads from around this time last year discussing the model output?
It appears there aren't any in this "Forecasting Model Discussion" forum looking further down so is there an archive somewhere?
Interested as to read all your guys comments as it all began to pan out last year.
Thanks in advance.
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yet another example of people being misquoted, above somewhere is his blog in full about the topic.
IF only folk would quote correctly rather than the bit they want to use?
Indeed, that's why I asked, I wondered if I had missed something somewhere but having read back through this thread and his blog couldn't see anything of the sort!
On the subject of Paul, does he normally dish out winter forecasts? I don't think he does, does he?
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Its strange paul hodson saying it's gona be a mild winter when only 2-3 months ago he was saying its going to be a harsh winter. So the question is. Is he just covering him self in case of a mild winter?
Where has Paul Hudson said "It is going to be a mild winter" please?
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Morning all!
I think we have finally caught up with the snowcover now, with the negatives and positive anomolies looking balaced.
Bit more to go yet but nearly there.
19/10/2009 snow cover = 0.0958%
19/10/2010 snow cover = 0.0915%
19/10/2011 snow cover = 0.0905%
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Where are you backtrack?
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2.4 here in Sheffield.
Nice and chilly. -
Sorry I have edited and clarified I don't mean people on here, but others.
The way people talk about it you'd think it was news that, shock horror, winter happens to be cold!
Ahhh sorry! and - YES it better be! I think a lot of us are getting our hopes up. I know I am, I love reading the posts on here that start to build up a picture of what we can hopefully expect.
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I'm getting pretty fed up of people saying 'oooooh it's supposed to be getting very cold at the end of the month and they (forecasters I presume) are saying it won't be long till it snows. We've got a cold spell coming'.
Well yes, it happens every year. IT'S CALLED WINTER.
Forgive me but isn't that the whole point of a weather forum? To discuss the weather regarless of whether it is a given what we know the season should bring?
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for those of you with NW Extra have a look at the set of charts issued Saturday, raw CFS issue for the 3 winter months, and also at the other CFS output if you want to wallow in cold and snow. They are both the coldest in the 7 weeks I've been running checks on this, latest will be issued on Wednesday to include my comments on the run for Saturday. Its ONE remember ONE out of 7x7 sets of charts I've looked at but it is certainly a good set of charts for the coldies and snow lovers to drool over!
That's the sort of post I want to see more often!!!
As somebody who can't really understand the charts I'm constantly looking for posts that can hint to a cold winter
I'll politely ignore this part (Its ONE remember ONE out of 7x7 sets of charts) and carry on getting my hopes up.!
Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2011/12
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Ah right IF, that would make sense. Cheers
I'll run a quick comparison between the last few years, hopefully we are at the top or near there.