Snow and storms
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was expecting it to have started here, but nothing much yet, just a damp ground. Looks as though the latest gfs has moved it slightly east and downgraded the wind strength, because the isobars don't look as tight.
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I believe also its being underated, the huge differences in temperature in sea and air colliding together with the awesome force of the jet stream make things go bang in a big way, I wouldn't be to suprised to see something not to far of the 1987 event. After all this is probably the most unpredictable storm in years in terms of intensity and exact path.
on a side note, does anyone think the rain will be ahead of schedule? the Met site has it hitting our shores at 4am roughly, but looking at the satellite imagery, the very thick cloud cover seems to be covering us quickly.
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yes, that looks like the beginning, I find this link Bink posted earlier very useful for watching the bestie come to life http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html
This could be a biggen
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This low could prove to be very interesting, we have some models saying its going to be a severe weather event, some dismissing it and a whole bunch sitting in the middle.
My views are that the low will break away from Nadine and rapidly bomb because of the contrast between the warm sea/air over bay of biscay and the cold laying over the northern half of the UK. The only question will be how strong the jet is
at the time the low builds.
There is also a lot of power tied up within Nadine. From looking at history, the Bay of Biscay is notorious for producing the fiercest Lows that hit the UK with the most unpredictability. I cannot see this being a tame low system but we will have to wait and see.
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I remember another bestie from the bay of biscay
*cough* 1987.It has a history of throwing very unpredictable lows at us.
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Just drove back down M23 from Croydon and there was one of the biggest cells I have seen in a long time, huge towering black mass, brief intense rain/hail but we missed the best of it.
Still looked incredible from a distance, reminded me of an American sky.
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Yea at least somethings coming this way, thought we might miss it all but looks as though it has been divided into two main lumps.
I still think the lump heading out towards north sea looks more impressive but im not complaining!
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Sky going dark here now, not exceptionally dark though, just started with small burst of moderate rain, wind gradually picking up
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rain started heavy here but not torrential. Wind picked up to a low rumble maybe 30mph gusts
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This storm has been another complete let down, not only has it gone over france, it looks pathetic on the radars with no definition or center, im off to bed soon, have got better things to be doing than watching this dull event
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This hasn't really developed a classic low at all yet, there is no circulating cloud, I was expecting this to happen suddenly in explosive cyclogenisis by the time it was in the channel
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On the south east coast here, will be up for quite a few hours tracking this storm in case it does change course. It is a fascinating storm to follow which ever way it ends up.
Current conditions are continuous heavy rain and small gusts maybe 15mph at tops. One half of me wants this to suddenly track north and the other half of me wants it to stay over France. (sorry french people)
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Have you noticed the pressure number of the storm at +24 hours on the fax chart , 987 just as it is in Bay of Biscay. This storm has an ominous feeling :o
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I am still convinced this is going to be another 1987 storm, you just never see a storm tracking that far south when the jet stream is where it is. I am sure it will exit the jet stream earlier giving it more power just as the great storm did. I shall prepare myself for the worst!
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Saw good flash and small rumble at about 11:30 sounded like it was just off the coast here. Wind picked up here, maybe gusting 30-35mph and rain becoming heavy. Off to bed for some well needed sleep after being kept up all night by last nights storm.
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Very gusty here still 65-75mph at a guess defiantly picked up from earlier and still hammering down of course
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Best storm so far I have seen in this house and I have been in here for 3 years. Blowing quite nicely I would guestimate 65mph gusts? My conservatory is not liking this weather though, I would estimate a 100mm puddle in it by the morning.
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Very quiet calm weather here all day, as I was heading home from work out in the country side I couldn't see a thing, the cloud cover is so thick that there was no light on horizon or moon light. Just started to rain hard and a small breeze picking up. Looking forward to tonight 70mph+ gusts along here. Wish I had a wind measurey thingy.
As for Friday, does anyone get an odd de javu feeling this has got great storm of 1987 written all over it? A unusually ferocious storm was forecast end of last week, it has now vanished from some models and downgraded from others, no one has much idea of where it's going, maybe some where around the Bay of Biscay? before it unpredictably deepens and heads north over south east england and off into North sea maybe? If we look back to that storm I wonder if it could of been predicted even with the advances in equipment and forecasts.
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The south of the country rarely ever sees these kind of wind speeds and is a much more populated area, The trees have not been battered by these kind of winds for a long time and neither have our structures. I think if you took the same wind speed to hit north and south the south would come off a lot worse. We are not called southern softies for no reason
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Oh crap... :blink: I thought Hastings would escape the brunt of these storms, I love storms but I still want a house standing at christmas! They are both off the beaufort scale which suggests over 80mph?
I am on the highest point of Hastings at a guess roughly 800m above sea level. Will be carrying my camera for some tornado hunting for the first storm.
On a side note, does anyone else think that storms sound more ferocious at night? if so, is this just because everything else is quieter, is it my imagination or is there actually a technical reason for this? i.e the temperature is usually lower.
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It looks as though next week will go down in history as one to remember. So the convective charts are just showing the possibility of bad thunderstorms/lightning and even tornados?
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It is the 18z for Friday that looks most damaging, those isobars looks even tighter than thursdays storm
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will these storms next week be another example of explosive cyclogenisis?
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I believe the squall is due to hit south east coast at around 8:30 or 9pm judging by met office rainfall forecast.
On a side note could anyone please explain the technical reasons for the squall becoming so defined and producing extra strong winds?
*cough* 1987.
Child Of Nadine (Karin) - Severe Weather Discussion
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Thats a good question, one I would like to know also. Can anyone tell me a good place to follow the pressure of Nadines brat?