Earth Wind and Snow

March 13, 2013

Snow on St Paddys Day??? Unheard of! Normally there's a few eejits out in t shirts and shorts that day! ( might still be, even with the snow!)

There was heavy snowfall on Paddy's Day in 1979 with some parades cancelled - in fact the synoptic set up was very similar to the predicted pattern for later this week / early next week. My own view in that the coldest air won't arrive until Monday when snow would be a big possibility if current charts verify although I wouldn't rule out some wintry type showers on Paddy's Day with hail and sleet in the mix with outside chance of some snow.....

EWS

March 12, 2013

Snow is a much less efficient reflector of radar energy than liquid drops therefore it won't show up well on radar. Yesterday's snow was very dry so although it looked like a whiteout to an observer on the ground it wasn't showing on the radar. The graupel was mostly what showed up as it is a snowflake with a layer of rime surrounding it.. If you look at actual liquid equivalent totals for what fell most places barely scraped 1 mm, with just 2 mm at Johnstown Castle where the bulk of the snow fell.

A big thanks for that S C - you learn something new everyday as they say

I made several attempts to go to bed last night as there was nothing showing o the 'radar' close to me - each time I looked out the door it was chucking it down with big large flakes.............really tired today from lamp post watching last night..................

EWS

March 12, 2013

That's brilliant to hear EWS! I drove over the Glenshane this morning and it was snowing away even though there was nothing on the radar.

Thanks Ronan - yes I noticed this in Jan 2010 too - it snowed all day on the 10th with a deep covering but everytime I checked the rader it showed there was no snow in my area..................just goes to show if you want to know what the weather is going to do - look out the window

There has been a slow thaw here since mid morning but snow and ice still laying in shaded areas.

From experience going back to the eighties we always do well in these east / north-easterly set ups once the breeze is not too light, however yesterdays showers were very light and short lived and I had resigned mself by yesterday evening that we were not going to get much this time round..........then at 6.15pm it started snowing and basically didn't stop until 8.30am this morning with some really heavy periods of snow mixed in with occasional lighter spells when it appeared it was stopping before the next heavy fall.............after months of model watching and dissapointments, it ws these unexpected ones that makes it all worth while........

EWS

March 12, 2013

Epic snowfall last night - heavy stream of snow showers fro 6.15pm yesterday evening that kept going through the night with blizzard conditions at times in temperature of - 2.0 degrees - still snowing here as I type with everything covered in a white blanket - a good 10 cm's. The odd thing is that a lot of the time the Met Eireann radar showed nothing overhead while it was chucking it down............

I expect a slow thaw from late morning onwards as the - 10 uppers leave our area..............the best March snowfall I have seen and almost on a par with Nov 2010

EWS

March 11, 2013

Well after a dissapointing day in which we had only light snow showers - we have had a stunning evening here in south Kilkenny with heavy snow chucking it down from 6.15pm in white out conditions - obviously a streamer passing over my area that just keeps coming - a good 5-6 cm's here now with everything covered in a white blanket in temperature of - 2.0 degrees - totally unexpected after the pathetic showers we had all day - have been out with the kids all evening enjoying it - best snowfall here since nov / dec 2010

EWS

March 11, 2013

light snow blowing around with the last hour - starting to get heavier now...............night night folks.............hope tomorrow is a white one where ever you are.........

EWS

March 10, 2013

A rare positive set up for for Cork City, could this be our shot!?

Watcher, I think this should be your signature?

Hopefully you will get the goods Born From the void - I think Cork did well in the Jan 2010 easterly

EWS

March 10, 2013

ME Orange Alert

National Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE

Snow-ice Warning for Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Meath, Donegal, Mayo, Cork, Kerry, Tipperary and Waterford

Scattered snow showers this evening, tonight and on Monday will give accumulations of between 3 and 8 cm. Snow will lie at lower levels as well as on high ground. Amounts will be highest in coastal counties of Leinster. Fresh to strong, gusty northeast winds will make for blizzard conditions in places during snow showers. A widespread sharp or severe frost tonight, lingering in many areas tomorrow.

Issued:10 March 2013 12:00

Valid:10 March 2013 18:00 to 11 March 2013 18:00

Up to last night Met Eireann were forecasting scattered wintry showers for this period with some snow possible on high ground - quite an upgrade there then and in fairness ties in with the modeled charts............glad to see my county included in the warning and from experience we usually do well in this type of set up, however best of luck to all snow lovers that we all get a covering of the white stuff over the next few days

EWS

March 8, 2013

Plenty to be excited about depending on location. For the far north it's obviously not great allbeit still very cold. It's those windward coasts that are going to get snow - how much remains to be seen.

I am excited now - all models have upgraded the potential today and the east and south are definately in with a shout of some heavy snow in my opinion.........I am following the weather since the bitter winters of the early to mid eighties got me excited and believe me the synoptics being modeleld from Sunday night through to Tuesday are the best I have seen in many years even allowing for the time of year - with bitter cold upper air and gale force unstable easterlies................based on current output, the potential is there for frequent snow showers and possibly continuous snow for up 24-36 hours in some areas and day time temps on monday could struggle to get above freezing in a gale or strong gale force easterly..............high potential for a snow day on Monday with little or no thawing unless the modeled charts are downgraded...........expected with a slow recovery in temperatures during Tuesday....................not bad for mid March

all IMHO of course

EWS

March 6, 2013

Models are certainly looking good for very cold conditions and snow showers from sunday night through monday.......

Eastern areas most at risk of possibly the wintriest spell this winter and spring EWS

February 22, 2013

End of March 1952. I think there was an ice day in the south with heavy snow as well.

Cheers CC

Yes that was the one

February 22, 2013

Just some thoughts on the "late snow" issue:

http://www.wetterzen...00120080322.gif

This was Easter Sunday 2008 and it dropped two inches of snow on lowland East London. Yes, it didn't last but even the January 20th fall this year (the second biggest since 2005, eclipsed only by 1 Feb 2009) was gone within 72 hours in my location

http://www.wetterzen...00119780317.gif

Another classic March snowfall - the Cheltenham Gold Cup was postponed that day following six inches of snow.

http://www.wetterzen...00120080407.gif

Here's one from April in the classic cold spring of 2008 - this brought a transient snowfall to London - inch or so in East London.

The synoptics are all similar - N or NE'ly winds from an LP in the southern North Sea drawing down air from Scandinavia. A straight N'ly has too much modification for the south of England.

I also remember an April snowfall in the early 1970s from my childhood but I'm not certain when.

I remember Steve murr posted charts of a screaming March easterly from the early 1950's which was exceptionally cold and snowy - can't remember which year but snow lay around longer than a few hours by all accounts.................shows it is possible

EWS

February 20, 2013

Met Eireann now calling this upcoming event as a significant col spell!

Well based on ECM charts etc the upper air even over Ireland is going to be very cold so day time maxes for a few days not much above 0 with very low minima - what a pity there is not heavy snow showers also in the mix as the whole set up is just a little too south for us by just 100 odd miles - however GFS has been showing some snow showers in eastern areas on Saturday for a few runs now so something to keep an eye on - these if they occur not likely to amount to much with pressure rather high. What I have noticed is that models are pushing the set up slightly further north today and if this continues maybe a few more snow showers will be in the mix come the weekend

EWS

February 15, 2013

There is now broad consistency within the full Operational model suite, ECM ensemble suite & I guess the MOGREPS ensembles-

Rather than comment on whats infront of us I though I would highlight the 4 key things to look for when homing in on a potent Easterly.

Here taken from the 06z- I believe the 06z represents the general super ensemble mean of the all the models.

1) The core of the low heights & Unstable air, this will also be the lowest temps of the upper air cold pool. These upper air cold pools rarely reach the UK & are often stalled or swerved away into france-

They are driven by the Upper level high & will only reach the UK if squeezed west by the Upper & high-

**IF** this makes it to the UK it will 100% bring a period of snow on its northern flank- & the convection will fire further North.

This happens on the 06z ( but was stronger on the 00z GFS) - very close similarities with Dec 26 2005 & Feb 1 2009-

here is where it lands on the 06z.

http://modeles.meteo...gfs-0-186.png?6

Whats also important is the track of this low- the further East & its influence will be low over the UK, my favoured track again for reference is:

Norway, Southern Finland, North Germany- where it may remain in situ for a day- then westwards again- after being squeezed.

2) The upper high that moves North out of the UK must gain the correct latitude, it will eventually be sheared & elongated East- which is good, but for people that still desire snow & live in places like Yorkshire then the highs lattitude is everything!

Whats more critical as well is the western end of the block - being 'lifted' to the right lattitude- we dont want the western end saggy - like the UKMO

http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?15-06

This will modify the initial CAA from europe.

3) Iberian Energy, People often overlook this in favour of the eyeline always on the Scandi high- however the energy moving North out of Iberia is whats supporting the high-

The best & most prolific Easterlies come with the sqeeze of isobars across europe to the UK are a result of the polar cell force moving south V the energy within the ferrell cell moving North-

that way the high is 'stuck' it cant sink.

Heres 3 classics-

http://modeles.meteo...52-3-29-0-0.png

http://modeles.meteo...87-1-12-0-0.png

http://modeles.meteo...991-2-7-0-0.png

This is usually the weakest of all features modelled, & also one that invariably is our stumbling block- notably because the energy isnt always deep enough to compensate the force moving south out the pole-

4)Southern Atlantic energy- Often ABSENT in recent winters & being replaced by the ever present Azorews high ridging North to kill the convection.- This seems to be well placed this time around-

Again, to build & sustain a decent easterly the track across Europe we need 'forcing' moving the cold west, then another area of energy across the Brest peninsula.

What will happen is the energy will drive north, but stop somewhere in this location due to the force of the high-

In recent winters the scandi high has had LOW heights positioned on the western end of Norway-

http://modeles.meteo...012-2-3-0-0.png shown here-

Which impedes the blocking-

this is so crucial that this region is blocked as the ridge will normally extend out towards iceland- as a result the southern energy can slide south under the block, where as no blocking the energy will recurve north over the UK = end of cold.

This is the GFS energy plot at 174

http://modeles.meteo...gfs-5-162.png?6

notice the energy approaching the UK from the SW & then being sheared away east again.

So in summary-

The pattern longwave is nailed- Upper high over scandi & low heights into europe-

What we need is consistency of the 4 key features of a snowy easterly to varify.

1) Upper high in the right lattitude

2) Iberian Energy

3) Southern jet energy

4) Upper air cold pool moving west to the UK & a westerly track of the low.

I hope this insight has helped some viewers.-

This is also why the UKMO are tentative around forecasting cold & snow from the east, because without a CLEAR signal of all these coming together at day 6/7 then its pointless.

Even at day 5 the track of the low can vary quite a bit- so UKMO sitting on the fence is the right choice.

regards

S

What a brilliant analysis Steve - it is a pleasure to visit this forum to view brilliant posts like this thanks from the likes of SM, GP, Chino, TEITS, John Holmes etc. - keep up the good work all

EWS

February 14, 2013

Well yesterday the models showed some easterly promise and this continues today with most models showing it getting quite chilly by Monday and then colder still by midweek with some wintry showers developing as highlighted on RTE weather at 7pm - it is after this that things could get more interesting however I will wait until Sunday to get too excited - if models are still showing cold easterlies by midweek at that point I will sit up and take notice

For those who think easterlies cannot deliver for their neck of the woods - there have been many times in the past when easterlies have brought more widespread snowfalls than to just eastern areas - I had decent snow last week off a north-westerly and I live in the south-east - lets see where we stand come Sunday

Finally for those who think it is now too late for proper snow - I will not be willing in Spring just yet............plenty of time for snow to fall up to early April - but especially up to mid March when it can still pack a punch............just ask those who lived through a blizzard in late Feb 1947 and saw it last on the ground up to mid March......... it has happened before and will happen again............

EWS

February 13, 2013

Another posible cold easterly showing now on UKMO and ECM - how many is that this winter and most have little or nothing to show for it

The only proper snow I saw this winter was last week..........on a westerly wind

I hope that after so many dissapointments we can have at least one or two days of proper snow before winter is out...................however I must stress the word hope...................

EWS

February 7, 2013

Good charts from ECM this morning regarding potential for snow in parts of Ireland from late Sunday through to Tuesday morning with the east probably most at risk with a stronger easterly / northeasterly flow showing compared to yesterdays output..................potential for further upgrades or downgrades over coming days - met Eireann also mention heavy wintry showers many of sleet or snow on Monday

Will be interesting model watching again over next few days

EWS

February 5, 2013

Since when did Ireland or the far West do well out of an Easterly ian? rarely thats when, meto 144 is the chart of the Winter.

Actually we in Ireland (especailly the east) have done very well out of easterlies in the past as long as they advect westwards enough - the eaterly in Jan gone did not..................many others have

EWS

February 5, 2013

_{Lovely covering of snow here this morning and we had further heavy snow showers up until 10am - sun has been out now for past hour or more and snow is slowly melting - was nice while it lasted...............lets hope that the weekend brings another chance for more snow as the}ECM_andUKMO_{charts suggest}

_EWS

February 4, 2013

Had a heavy snow shower here for about 30 minutes - has left a light covering which is now freezing - another shower now approaching on the radar.........gonna be hard to get myself away from the lamp post tonight

January 31, 2013

So, as I mused over on the MOD thread a couple of days ago, the key thing with our future weather and potential for proper cold, is the movement of the low pressure system currently modeled (about 120 hours) at the southern tip of Greenland. If that moves up the west coast of Greenland, or the vast majority of it splits up the west side, then we are in a game on scenario, as this will allow height rises to our north, and also drag the PV more Westerly towards west Canada.

The 06 GFS just hinted at this occurring, so I will watch the 12z runs with great interest indeed!

Yeah I noticed that too - the first time GFS has hinted at this and within T120 so well worth seeing if other models latch on to this later - either way I feel that next Monday night / Tuesday morning has the potential to give favoured spots a good covering of snow based on current charts - the north-west obviously being best placed for this but winds are expected to be quite strong so showers could get carried well inland..............keep watching for updates to see if this can become a longer spell or if it will be a brief toppler...........could go either way I feel

EWS

January 31, 2013

Slow motion shot from last night

Excellent stuff - we had sereral bright flashes of lightening and loud thunder for about 20 minutes around 12.30am this morning at my location

Beautiful bright sunny if rather breezy day here today though

EWS

January 29, 2013

As I stated this morning the archives must be littered with the carcasses of northerly toppler charts!

Looking from a very much half-glass full perspective though, IF the synoptic evolution fell favourably for us in the UK, we could well see a cold and wintry spell develop as we head toward day 10 or so of February.

Having endured the long run of winters of the late 90's/early 00's, like quite a few members on here, I was beginning to think that I would never see charts showing high latitude blocking again, until along came Feb.2005.

I joined the forum in Jan.2005 and the winter to that point had been mostly mild and mundane, then forecast charts started to show some tentative ridging towards Greenland, with a couple of failed northerlys under our belt, we homed in on the 19th/20th Feb.and forecast charts, which for all the world to most members looked indeed like another toppler.

http://www.wetterzen...00120050219.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00120050220.gif

But as we now know, this soon evolved into this.

http://www.wetterzen...00120050221.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00120050222.gif

... so on and so on...

Now this is of course a very rose tinted view, as we head into the last month of winter but I still think this is a possible scenario, as of course is the possibility of nothing more than a succession of brief northerly topplers/n.w outbreaks.

Who knows if we arrived at this point - http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2161.gif

Its not a million miles away from this - http://www.wetterzen...00120050220.gif

And who knows winter could finish with a flourish and the charts from mid-Feb 2013 could join all those charts posted from favourite wintry spells of the past, that we often see appear in these threads.

A fascinating period of model watching coming up and very much a spell that could make this winter or indeed consign it to the Room 101 of dashed winter hopes for the members of Net Weather.

Regards,

Tom

Top Post - great minds think alike Tom I was actually looking at the ECM rolling out earlir and 2005 immediately came to mind - I even went back in to the archives to see how that easterly of 8 years ago came about..............the charts are not a million miles as you say from what is being currently modeled.............of course it could also go the way of the many failed topplers

looking forward to the next few days model watching to see how this pans out

EWS

January 28, 2013

If you think gfs fi is good, look at what the CMA has done by the 6th, anyone for a 1060 Greenland high and raging northerly?

Yes looks nice and in a nearer timeframe than GFS

January 28, 2013

Slowly, slowly - for the last few days the charts are getting slightly more wintry with each set...........ECM is better tonight than last night, same with GFS and the GEFS ensembles and even in the shorter range UKMO / FAX.

That's good enough for me.

I will leave you with this lovely chart - heres hoping for further upgrades tomorrow

EWS

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