Earth Wind and Snow
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Posts posted by Earth Wind and Snow
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I think it looks likely that if we are to see any now next week it is more likely to come from a cold north-westerly rather than an easterly with northern and western areas especially high ground most prone - while GFS and ECM FI show the block receding eastwards somewhat, they do not show typical south-west to northeast zonality but rather lows diving down on a north-west to south-east axis - John Holmes anomoly charts would also back this up - I would love a screaming easterly next week but being realistic no model, met office etc. are on that page.
it is what happens after mid next week that will determine our weather for late Jan / early Feb - hopefully those south-east diving lows will trigger a rise of pressure to the west which would allow the block to the north-east become a bigger player as we enter the last third of winter proper and possibly our first proper cold spell. Tentative signs in some outputs for this to happen. Some encouraging signs also such as the pacific ridge coming more in to play and events high up in the stat could also aid us going forward.
This winter has really been a waiting game for us all searching for proper cold / possible snow - hopefully that wait is nearly over. maybe the GFS 18z will pull a rabbit out of the hat
EWS
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18z looked good up to t144 but by t168 its all over - which is the time frame when ECM gets interesting
A move in the right direction by GFS - however it may be right in that this could be another 'close but no cigar' situation rather than what the ECM offers
A very interesting week of model watching and more twists and turns to come over the next few days I am sure
Roll on the 0z
night night
EWS
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The UK Met Mentioned yesterday or the day before (cant remember) that there could be a slack temporary flow from the east late next week before the Atlantic likely moves in - this was before any models showed this as a possibility to my eyes - the JMA and ECM tonight would seem to back up that prognosis. Ian F also stated today that things could go one of several directions after next week such is the uncertainty so I think we will continue to see the models throw up different possible scenarios over the next number of days
Anyone writing off winter cold at this early stage of January should rethink - lots of weather to get through in Jan, never mind Feb and March - add in the possibility of a sudden SW in late Jan and anything can happen
EWS
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The ECM mean charts seem to be broadly following the operational tonight
http://wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html
http://wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html
In the meantime while nothing majorly wintry this coming week - there should be plenty of frost about early in the week and again after midweek in slack airflow
EWS
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Ok big shift in the GEFS 12z around the 192-216 period. Around 16 members showing some sort of easterly at 216.
GEFS 12z mean 204 -
GEFS 6z mean same timeframe -
gens-21-1-228.png big difference.A more positive shift towards a colder pattern again so far this afternoon
Noticed that too - many of the members build a mid atlantic ridge with low pressure systems digging down over the Bristish Isles and further in to Europe resulting in an easterly flow of sorts in many cases - that is 16 members as you point out that show much potential
This saga is going to run and run - looking forward to ECM tonight to see if that edges the way of the GEFS suites
Edit: After 216 most members go on to flatten the pattern although a few hint at height rises towards Greenland - all a long way off though
EWS
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I think this will show some modification by tomorrow.
Purely using my old bible the 500mb anomaly charts I make this comment on my huge file of these things tonight after looking carefully at the latest NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 output this evening.
Noaa
6-10 shows the most marked troughing over uk for some time coupled with +ve heights predicted larger than before off eastern seaboard and also, as last issue, extending towards +ve areas off east Greenland and east over sea towards n Norway where ridge effect also in evidence
On this basis, and previous charts I would suggest cold spell will occur; this includes the chart showing the Atlantic still quite mobile but at a lower latitude in the uk area than previously.
Need 8-14 to see if it is v short or somewhat longer?
8-14 shows fairly marked +ve area off eastern seaboard (prob touch higher than last couple of issues), wly flow over n of uk but n of west in south into trough over europe, about 15+ east. Some signs of ridging n of this but only slight as is +ve signal
Would still suggest to me cold not less than this, actual weather=?, maybe surface features in mobile atlantic going s of uk but not sure of this, takes us out to last week of January. Unsure of what follows?
remember this is an assessment of what the 500mb flow pattern is likely to be, NOT the surface but the comment about cold does refer to the surface weather.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php
Thanks John - always look forward to your professional input - interesting times ahead for sure
EWS
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ECMWF ensembles are relatively positive.
Lots of potential for a return to colder synoptics.
The Day 7 Ensemble mean could be a lot worse..
We would all gladly have taken that chart as a 7 day mean only a few days ago..........lots more chopping and changing to come
Chins up folks
EWS
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One thing i must say ( and not be a negative nelly ) but there is a large consensus in the ENS for it to turn milder after the 5-7 day window with almost no runs having the temps below zero after this spell.
Obviously very far out but not what you would like to see.
Very true Matty - however as Ian Ferguson stated earlier, the models are poor at modeling the breakdown of these blocking spells (assuming it happens) and often are too quick in modeling the breakdown - lets get the cold easterly in place first and then see what happens
EWS
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yes nick its that close,,50/50,
as alluded to by Ian Ferguson earlier - the UK Met do not know which way this is going to go so everything is up for grabs. Funnily enough it was about this time last year that Ian used the famous phrase Shannon Entropy when models were similarly undecided. Lets hope we get a repeat of what followed from late Jan through to March in 2014. The mobile regime last year was not as severe as now in relation to storms etc. however that does not mean that if a cold spell is to follow that this cannot also be more severe than what happened last year
More twists and turns to come over the next number of days methinks
EWS
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From a coldies perspective the models are dire again today - however if the models this time last week were to be believed, we should all be shivering in a bitterly cold northerly this weekend with severe frosts and in places snowfall - the models could look completely different again in a few days time. No need to panic 7 days in to winter..........
EWS
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This looks good to me...
Yes I thought the operational would be a rogue run base on most of the other output tonight - however those ECM ensembles keeps us interested - at least until tomorows' runs, especially as UKMO also shows signs of amplification.
Hopefully things will improve following some dire output over the last few days - I can live with mild mush for now in the hope things set up favorably for a cold shot by Crimbo
EWS
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I am sorry just a quick question to Jh why can't we read the thoughts of GP on here what has happened to him? Thanks Paul.
He put up a post a few days ago saying he has is taking up a new position in a large multinational long range weather forecasting company............ there is a thread in the weather discussion section called 'This is the end'
EWS
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Best of luck in your new post Stewart............you will be hugely missed by all on Net weather for your vast.knowledge and forecasting skill.........always awaited your Winter forecast with baited breath.......thanks for the memories
EWS
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Locally this winter for me wasn't as good as 2010 or 1995 for laying snow. However, days of falling snow is high enough to be up there with some of the better ones and recent events memorable enough to be put swiftly in the stories to tell bank.
After the memorable Nov and Dec 2010 spell - The only snow I saw at my location between Jan 2011 and mid Jan 2013 was a 5 minute shower on a westerly in Dec 2011 and did no see a flake of snow in the whole of 2012
Since mid Jan 2013 I have seen falling snow almost every week with 5 days of lying snow (although these always more or less melted by late morning or afternoon) plus other dustings - even this week I have seen falling snow every day since last Sunday and awoke to a light covering the last two mornings - I have probably seen more falling snow in the past two months than I saw fall in Nov / Dec 2010 episode - however being late in the season and without one exceptionally heavy fall it has not hung around whereas the 2010 falls while sporadic hung around for weeks on end
Still an amazing spell - I thought yesterday that after today, we would not see any more snowfall until next winter, however looking at todays charts, I would not be surprised if some places saw further snowfall in some shape or from as we go in to April
EWS
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Light covering of snow here again this morning with grass and rooftops etc. all white - with flurries still blowing in the wind - wasn't expecting this as sky was clear and radar did not suggest anything for here when going to bed at 11am last night - obviously a few heavy snow showers arrived during the night
crazy weather considering Monday is 01st April
EWS
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Had a light covering here this morning after a few heavy snow showers last night and again up to about 10am this morning - showers were lighter and less frequent after that with good sunshine at times this afternoon
Some flurries still blowing in the wind here now - but I think one these showers die out overnight and in the morning we may finally say adieu to snow again until next winter as latest models show a cold dry spell ahead with risk of rain sleet in south-west before a gradual warm up in early April
It has been an exciting last few months - I have seen numerous days of falling snow since mid January ranging from flurries to heavy showers with some lying snow experienced on 5 of those days plus a few dustings - certainly beats the 5 minute snow shower (Dec 2011) I saw in the previous 2 years between Jan 2011 and mid Jan 2013
Roll on summer and barbeques now and then back to snow chasing again next November
EWS
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Temperature stayed at + 2.0 degrees all day here with light snow flurries here within the last few hours - anyone getting something more substantial in Ireland tonight?
Should be some proper snow showers around by midweek and possibly another frontal snow event by Friday / Sat - this time possibly for the south
Amazing weather for the last week of March
EWS
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I know some of you are tired of this cold after a long winter and people such as gardners, farmers etc. have a tough time in these conditions - however we cannot do anything about it and in truth I am fascinated by these current synoptics especially for so late in March.............some exceptional snowfall in places yesterday and today, snow showers likely in eastern parts of Britain and Ireland next week and a possibility of another frontal snow event next weekend...............throw in severe frost, ice, windchill.................this is really a 1 in 50 year event I would imagine and all this on the back of an already cold and snowy March to date
Even more amazing that this time last year we were lying out in our gardens and on the beaches soaking up the sun in a heatwave
EWS
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Best of luck to all you up North - hope you get your snow and loads of it....................
Maybe a chance of something further south later in the weekend and early next week
EWS
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Snowfall in North Dublin on St. Patrick's Day
Glad you have seen snow Matty - looks cool................hopefully more to come over next few days
Dry and sunny here in south Kilkenny
EWS
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Great stuff - keep the reports coming
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What a difference a year makes
projected conditions 12 months later as per ECM with snow risk in many areas
Hopefully a decent summer to follow this year......................
EWS
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Glad to see you folks in the north-east have seen snow this morning - the forecast was for rain / hail showers - just goes to show anything is possible over the next week or so - if anything as we get closer to next week the chances of snowfall for some parts are increasing based on latest models especially for northern and eastern areas............no March heat wave this year by a long shot........
EWS
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Yes and ECM has also been bullish the last few days with UKMO coming on board today so worth keeping an eye on over next few days. If charts still showing this by Friday it looks like a good chance it could be winters last hurrah before hopefully a decent spring and summer
EWS
Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Some interesting charts tonight
Ironically for all the good charts showing easterly promise - the coldest uppers for U.K. or Ireland currently modeled are on the ECM + 240 chart............ from a westerly