Gavin Hannah

I think the mods were a little too keen to have the atlantic firing up. I noticed on the 12z run, the forecast low for midweek is now all but gone.

Deep FI showing a massive low dragging polar air down. This latest run looks absolutely fab!

The 12Z run was very interesting. We just need a few things to go our way and Europe could be plunged into the freezer! Keeping my fingers crossed.

I much preferred the GFS 0Z run towards the end but as the last few days have produced runs which see FI chop and change so much, I'm still keeping my fingers crossed for a lovely cold shot end of Nov. I had said there would be snow on the hills in Scotland this weekend, looks like I was well of the mark haha!

Bring on the cold! Some nice and interesting images in the Ensembles. P5 is my fav, albeit, its still two weeks away.

I think the MO like to sit on the fence so they can say they're forecast was neither wrong or right. TBH tho, it is pretty difficult to call it. I have a feeling that by next weekend, the models will be leaning more towards a nice cold and snowy winter. I did say there would be snow on the hills in Scotland by next weekend so I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

Always a good sign seeing plenty of new snow.

I like the guy from Morrisons. He seems a very reliable source when it comes to the snow at the end of Nov.

Aye, a "don't blame us if the SHTF again this winter" lol.

Hoping the weather pattern materializes!

Was a bit disappointed by the show on BBC2. After watching Frozen Planet I had my hopes up for a David Attenborough style narrative about whats caused the last few winters and what the chances are that we would be getting more of the same.

This is good... I take it? This is yet another LR Chart that has shown some sign of snow over Scotland. I originally thought it would be next weekend we might get some snow on the hills, this puts it at a week on Fri. (Keeping my fingers crossed)

Locally a; 7am - 0 Deg C 9am - 1-2 Deg C Frost on the ground and cars only just melted away.

Temperature at 7am locally - 0 Deg C and at 9am - 1-2Deg C Its going the right away!

It's probably just my wishful thinking lol, but I can't see it staying above average for the full month. Im hoping for at least regular ground frosts with snow on the hills in Scotland with temps around avg or hoovering below. Trouble is the long range charts chop and change so much...

Im very much a novice at reading charts but I'm going for a shift in weather anytime from 12/13 nov. Im going mostly on a hunch tho lol.

Am I right in thinking that a run of high pressure (as forecast) will help lower the temps over the UK at night and in the ground? And would this be beneficial in the long run towards a cold winter? Was just reading through the latest update from NOAA about La Nina, and while I'm only aware of the possibility of La Nina to influence our winters, I thought I'd post the link to the PDF http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf The mean forecast is for a continued strengthening to about -1.5 through Nov - Spring. Hopefully someone on here will be able to tell us if thats a good sign or not.

I will clarify lol. The 500, NH500 and snow risk all seem to point to colder air and a risk of snow over higher ground from 13th/12th onwards. (At least, thats my interpretation). I know thats a while off yet, but I have a hunch. lol.

Ok, From looking at the long range charts (as they stand) I'm going to go out on a limb and say that from Saturday 12th November.. it'll be cold weather with a risk of snow for at least 3-5 days.

Thnx LotS.

Ok, so this was posted by Lady of the storm over on the winter2011 thread. Its last years 26th Nov. Over on the charts, (all be it,a long way off) I saw this for the 19th Nov. According to the charts, Snow risk Uk wide from the 16th. (Keeping figers crossed.) The two 500's look remarkably similair....

Does anyone else have this nagging gut feeling that by the end of Nov, the weather will have kicked into full on winter mode?? Or is the last two years mega winters just giving me false hope? Although, I too remember last autumn and 09/10 autumn being on the warm side then out of nowhere, it was as if the arctic had arrived over night, which i suppose it kind of did. I just noticed, the chart I posted above for the 19th of nov (i know its a long way off) looks alot like the one from 26th Nov 10 posted by Lady of the storm further above.

Hey everyone, my first post, although I have been lurking for a while now. Not much of a forecaster, I just like to look at the charts and see what everyone else is thinking. As you can imagine, by my handle, Im looking for the cold and snow. Anyway, I know the long range charts have a very remote chance of materialisng but I thot I'd post these. Be kind folks....