[Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2]

I'm going to throw this out there and you guys can advise me as to whether this is possible or not?

I would imagine that the best set-up for snow would be an intense almost "tropical storm" type Low coming from the NNE sort of Svalbard direction racing down towards us over the Norwegian sea and picking up more and more moisture and just slamming into the UK and stalling. If the UK was already cold then surely that would have the potential to dump feet and feet of snow. Is this ever possible?

[Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2]

Here's one for you all;

Do you prefer frontal snowfall or frequent heavy snow showers?

Frontal snowfall followed by frequent heavy snow showers of course

But If I had to pick one of the two I would say the heavy showers. Yeah the frontal is more impressive but the showers are more unpredictable which builds excitement

[Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2]

Was not a good cold winter last year by any standards if you ask me

[Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2]

You can almost guarantee 1-2 decent snow events even in the mildest of all winters - lets not panic and just enjoy the ride - seriously.

We got NOTHING last year (Glasgow)

[Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2]

I don't usually look at any long range forecasts or trends regarding the winter period so I can't comment on what the models were saying for last winter but whatever poor signals the models were showing last year did not stop Europe having one of its coldest periods for a very long time at the end of Jan/first part of February, the UK were so close to properly receiving that cold air but unfortunately, the edge of the blocking was over the UK and I do feel if things worked out a tad better then peoples impressions of last winter would be all so different.

I don't understand why random cold CFS charts are being posted for and being taken seriously, at the end of the day, its down what the models show before 72 hours that matters but as per ever, it will be interesting and nail biting chasing down any potential cold set ups!

I completely agree, last winter WAS another very very harsh one for "Europe" the UK just missed it by a hairs bredth.

[Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2]

I've been off for a day and it seems there is panic around here for some unknown reason lol.

The signals for this winter are good...!

We are in a much better position than we were last autumn. I think all of us were grasping at straws last year.

Any coldies like me, looking at charts for mid winter this far out, will be driven to the point of insanity as they constantly chop and change.

Don't do it lol!!!!

[Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2]

MET Office "APPEAR" to be going for a cold winter. http://www.metoffice...ts-temp-OND.pdf

We expect that the current weak El Niño conditions in the

tropical Pacific will start to disappear by the end of this year,

and they are not expected to influence European and UK

weather significantly during the forecast period. Arctic sea ice

is at its lowest recorded extent, and whilst this could play

some part in determining weather over the UK over the next

few months, as yet there is no clear predictive association.

Sea surface temperatures in the northwest Atlantic are higher

than normal and this favours a tendency towards colder,

atmospheric blocking weather patterns over northwestern

Europe.

The consensus from computer model simulations is for

surface pressure to be higher than average to the north of

the UK during the three-month period, especially in October.

This is consistent with the anomalous sea surface

temperature pattern. Such a pressure distribution favours

weaker than average westerlies or spells of easterly winds,

increasing the risk of colder than average conditions through

the period.

[Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2]

Err both charts produced some decent wintry weather for Scotland lol

Really? I live in Scotland as was wearing only a Tshirt on that day in December last year. I remember it well, record warmth. Didnt have a single flake where we are in Scotland all winter.

EDIT: Nope Im sorry, I was thinking of Dec 26th, im just going to shut up now, made enough of a fool of myself.

[Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2]

Like BFTP said, you could be talking about December 16th or possibly December 11th, 2009. The first day the high pressure asserted itself and moved to our north and became established. Charts Below:

As a snow lover, these charts are decidedly grim viewing Literally "worst case scenario" lol

[Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2]

I'm only an amateur snow enthusiast (just made this term up lol) and I find it very hard to believe it is possible to predict what Winter will be like from 2-3 months away.

I think its possible nowaday that they can say what is MORE LIKELY to happen, i.e. cold or mild. But your right, that cant out and out predict it for sure.

[Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2]

that's very true - and interesting. Would like to experience something like myself- can't see it.

i'll slightly re-phrase my question in the light of that - when was the last time a normal small scale low moved from west to east along the channel? (in winter)

I really don't know why but I want to say December 11th 2011. Can someone verify this for me? Just seems to be in my head.

[Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2]

when was the last time there was a proper channel low?! surely we're due one aren't we?

last weekend!? No?

[Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2]

Sea Ice finally growing today.

[Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2]

i agree with jh i'm a bit young to remenbor 63 and 47 i don't think this country just wouldn't able to coap with it. A dusting of snow brings the country to a stanstill.

Im just not sure it does.

We don't half moan like it does, we don't half act like it does. But I don't think it actually does bring it to a standstill. People now just love to complain because they cant get their CLK down to Starbucks for a Caramel Machiato. First world problems. People didn't whine about things like that in the 60's.

[Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2]

This may sound a bit obvious but...

Surely if the birds are flying south earlier than usual this would indicate an EARLY winter rather than a harsh winter?

I mean....why would they give a damn about heading south early if its going to be harsh November-March? They would be long gone by then anyway...

[Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2]

I can't say I would wish for a 62/63 or 47. But... If someone said to me... Well it's that or same as last year I'm sorry but I would go for the cold and snow. Yes it would be difficult but at least it would be interesting. Us bits shine brightest in times of difficulty and maybe it's just what this country needs? I digress. But anything would be better than mild and perpetual rain.

[Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2]

Part of me thinks that would be amazing, the other part of me thinks, lawd I hope not, I'd be bankrupt. The prospect of 3 months intense cold and deep snow doesn't provide a lot of joy when you're a self-employed gardener.

I guess wishing never changed anything though, what will be will be, we'll just have to deal with it, mild or cold.

How dare you. Wishing gave Gepeto a REAL BOY!!!

[Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2]

I spend quite a bit of time in Norway and I asked in conversation whether they spend a lot of time worried about the weather or if it was going to snow badly in winter. They all said "they never check" why? Because hey don't need to. They all use winter tyres and never ever get stuck. It's just not a problem over there. Honestly the caos on the roads in the UK is 99% down to wrong tyre choice. I understand it is difficult for some people to afford two sets of tyres but I can also guarantee we wouldn't have any disruption if everyone did.

[Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2]

I know not everyone agrethe but I think the problem with transport now is simply 2 fold.

There is a lot more of it than 62/63!its oh so easy to gridlock an entire road very quickly if one car gets stuck.

And 2 is tyres. 95% of people driving around on the wrong tyres for the conditions. people will say ahh but they didn't have winter tyres in the 60's...Well actually they kind of did! That had much heavier vehicles on much narrower tyres, with much tread than some of today's tyres. 3 years ago I had a hot hatch with big low profile summer tyres on and it wouldn't even move in the slightest of snow. No car from the 60's would have had that problem. And like I said earlier, it only takes one idiot to get stuck to quickly gridlock and entire road.

[Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2]

I think in some ways we would cope better (more reliable heating, water and utilities) and in some ways we would cope worse (transport)

[Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2]

Hi guys,

I'm relatively new here so I will introduce myself again.

I have no meteorological training or experience I'm afraid. I am aware of the basics of the weather (pressures, NAO, AO, troughs, blocking etc etc) but on a very very amateur scale.

I won't try and hide it... I have a cold bias! Not that I will be making any predictions (that would be obtuse) but I do hope it's cold and snowy.

At this early stage all I am really doing is watching he snow and ice cover charts in the northern hemisphere.

What I would like to do is start having a look at the stratosphere temperature charts but I can't find them. Does anyone have a link to these charts? Do they even exist?

I have to keep myself grounded being a snow lover and like I said at this very early stage I think looking into anything else would be pointless.

Kind regards,

[The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread]

Hi, I'm new here. You might have seen me on the DM forum. I have no real knowledge of meteorology so wont insult you with a "forecast" but I hope its another 62/63.