garbagebags
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Posts posted by garbagebags
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I think GP is being very bullish because the tropospheric signals are so strong. I suspect that he is right in his thoughts for the general pattern but that it will be delayed until we have gathered enough wave amplitude to knock out the developing vortex completely. We see the FI model output consistently suggesting that the polar vortex is wobbling, but like a weeble it is not quite falling over. And if we don't have enough repeated wave feedback then it could be a case of so close and yet so far for early winter. We have the boxer on the ropes, it would appear.
For those too young to remember ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weeble )
Thats a great Analogy mate. Thanks.
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I would like to make a statement and then people can tell me if its right or wrong.
I'm thinking this winter will be anything from "normal" to "very cold"
My feelings are that everything is in place (sea temps, snow cover etc etc) However the Strat and solar activity aint quite playing ball.
So I recon, if solar activity jumps and the strat stays cold we will see a "normal" winter, whereas If sun spots dissapear and the strat goes SSW then we could see a very cold winter. Or depending on the sun and strat, anywhere in between.
Does this make any real sense?
I know most say sun spots have a lag time but looking at previous years it doesn't really seem like they do (also any solar flares only take 7 hours to reach us) maybe people say there is a lag time to ramp cold when there is increased solar activity?
Im still learning so would love to know if any of this makes sense because thats kind of the way I see this winter panning out in my head.
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Forgive me if I'm wrong here, but aren't the NAO/AO 'forecasts' merely derivations of the model-run?
I honestly have no idea, I kind of guessed that they were separate as aren't they more likely "trends" of a likely change in the PV rather than a data induced model of where things will be?
No idea though.
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Models are keen for "something" towards the end of the month but have no idea what. I think this will be 90% down to the NAO/AO forecast and not that they are actually "seeing" anything yet?
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Who on earth is GP !?
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Please use charts to make your viewpoint? and can you also explain why its appalling? cheers
Need I say any more?
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The 00z this morning make appalling viewing
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Most people say it will be a 62/63
No, no I don't think they are.
"Most" people are saying it might be a colder to slightly colder than average winter.
62/63 was Exceptionally and record breaking cold.
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BLOCK anyone?
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As I understand it - by the stretching of the vortex.
(Remember I am no physicist)
HI gb , Have you read the first post?
Easterly propagating (phase) large Rossby planetary waves lifted by large mountain ranges or land/ocean differential heating propagate into the stratosphere given the right conditions (long wavelength (wave number 1 or 2) and weak westerly flow). They interact with the PV and dissipate create warming.
I gave it a shot I hope I got it right. Please correct me.
Stephane
Ok so nothing a layman like me can understand then lol!
Is there some easy graph I can keep a watch on to see if the strat suddenly warms?
thanks guys
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Can anyone tell me what causes the polar strat to suddenly and "randomly" warm? Is there something we can be watching that is a trigger for the warming of the strat?
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Am I right in thinking everything is in place for a -NAO/AO and blocked cold winter EXCEPT the strat temperatures?
And could someone tell me, what causes the Strat to suddenly warm?
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That is all.
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it seems some people are never happy. we've got good long range indicators suggesting potential for a decent winter, which could involve some good dumpings of snow for many (could and potential being important words to note...) yet some are apparently going to be disappointed if we dont get a 62/63 style winter!! rein it in a bit! just some snow would be nice!
I agree,
I want cold and snow as much as the next snow lover but I do NOT want a 62/63 style winter. People don't realise just how brutal that winter was, it was not enjoyable. It can be cold and snowy all winter without being as damn harsh as 62/63. That would just cause untold problems for everyone. Id happily take 3 months of snow and -1 rather than days of -15 such as 62/63.
Be very careful what you wish for!
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I'm going with you vogan. I think the NAO will flip pos through November and neg halfway through Dec.
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Snow reflects sunlight yes, but it's also a fantastic insulator, so doesn't tend to get as cold as bare ground. So although it helps in getting temps down, it doesnt help to the degree you might think.
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my god, thats a frightning model. Even as a cold lover, that is extreeeeeme
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I think we need to keep a close eye on the 18th October onwards, the GFS has been hinting at a cold snap around then, the latest CFS seems to have picked up on the same signal!
cold snap then? Its a cold snap now! de-iced the car this morning
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Correct me if I am wrong but doesn't low sea ice mean, warmer Arctic air rising, therefore warmer Strat, therefore more chance of -NAO -AO and harsh UK winters?
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The Scots must have been pretty brassed off that day - heavy rain & strong winds whilst the English were basking under the warm sun!
Bish
Oh we are used to it
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All this expertise is fascinating! I would be very grateful if you told me, whats the "best setup or system" for snow to the Glasgow area?
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All very interesting, but I thought this thread was supposed to be looking forward to Winter 12/13, not looking back at snowfall events in 11/12.
Only by looking at the past can we make sense of the future
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I think you are meaning a polar low.
thanks, I don't really know what I'm on about lol. New to all this, But as an uneducated guess, I would have assumed that a hurricane type low pressure event but thats come from the north Pole and slammed into us would be the most extreme? Plenty cold and full of moisture
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An intense system like that would probably have a fairly large warm sector associated with it so snowfall would probably be limited to higher ground and transient snowfall across lower levels.
Even if it came from all the way up there?
Winter 2012/13 - Chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I would say that question lies with if the Strat is willing to play ball or not, it looks like its the deciding factor between colder interludes and real locked down cold.