Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

garbagebags

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    300

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by garbagebags

    Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The models continue to suggest a notable cool down as we move into the second half of November - a theme for a number of days now.

     

    It does now seem heights will build sufficiently over the mid atlantic stopping the flow of the atlantic on its westerly trajectory by the weekend.

     

    Not surprised to see ECM showing the very cold uppers - there is a mass of very cold arctic air lurking to our north but its far from certain just how cold things may get.

     

    I've been saying for weeks that the raging PV since start October has been a good thing. Now at least we have decent cold to unleash. 

    Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Don't understand why people get so obsessed with snow in November, it's EXCEPTIONALLY rare to get extended very cold/cold weather in November. People expect too much forgetting that November is a AUTUMN month, just because a few years ago we had a very cold end to November does not mean the same will happen every other year.

    Looking at the models for the first time in a while as I've been exceptionally busy, but the building blocks look pretty good for winter to me. Looking at the GFS & ECM it looks as though the PV is being disrupted and doesn't look like it's setting up shop in southern Greenland which can only be a food thing long term, also with the NAO turning negative around the 2/3 of this month things look good for a nice chilly December(you know, the first month of winter) until then there's looks to be a few tasters at the cold within a decent timeframe. Normal November weather really, PM short lived bursts for the North with Drier more mild weather in the south, just ordinary late autumn really. Cheer up chumps!

     

    We aren't obsessed with snow in November. We are obsessed with snow! Nobody cares what month it is except you. Who cares how rare it is? We are watching the models and excited because they are showing encouraging signs. It would be the same if we lived in Dubai and it was July. It doesn't matter what month it is one jot.

    • Like 6

    Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by garbagebags

    The chances of that chart verifying, given it's 15 days away, is slim to say the least. For all we know we could be having a strong North-Easterly flow by then Posted Image

    I agree. To get upset at FI is even more bonkers than getting excited by it. People should stick to +192hrs or less. 
    (sometimes I actually wish they would bin the FI part of the run. It's really not very helpful.)

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I think this is where the IMBY-ism's are starting to apply. I can understand the excitement of some of the potential in the models .. if you live further North.

     

    I see nothing exciting from my geographical point of view, just standard colder Autumn weather. The latest model outputs as the days have ticked by, do show a slight watering down compared to what was on offer last week. (I would post charts of comparisons but i can't from a TV) Posted Image

     

    At this time of year, yes of course people and georaphically split. People in Aviemore have a good shout with getting snow. People in Cornwall have no chance. So IMBY's are magnified towards the end of Autumn. Try and not think about whether you will get snow or not, and just be happy for the pattern change. Thats why people are excited. Not because of where the -5 line lies. 

    • Like 3
×
×
  • Create New...