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garbagebags

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    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Looks like the UK may see its first 850 -10 line this weekend.

    h850t850eu.png

     

    I have to say, its a bit sad to see everyone looking way into next week and beyond and getting down about it. I think there is a case of "not being able to see the woods for the trees" going on here (I too am guilty). 
    I mean, here we are, just over a week into winter and we have -10 line forecast to hit the british Isles. God, compared to last winter thats a near miracle.

    • Like 19

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    While some snow could at lower levels cannot be ruled out, I'm not sure how you can suggest a good snow event at ground level from that chart?

    Whilst 850's may support snow, other factors need to be added in. One factor would be the 0C isotherm heights- Here's the chart from the same run and the same time.

    attachicon.gifviewimage.png

    Typically, some transient snow (possibly heavy for a time) 200-500m, in heavier showers/bands of precipitation, the isotherm can be dragged down to allow snow to fall at lower levels.

    This experimental chart gives the sort of idea in what sort of heights/areas would see accumulations

    attachicon.gifviewimage (2).png

    It's all speculative this far out of course, and I'm not an expert but it's wise not to expect a "good snow event at ground level" from the type of chart you posted.

    It'll be fun watching some of those webcams on the Scottish mountains though! :)

     

    Hi, my reply was moved here - https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81281-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-2014/page-49

    Thanks,.

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    While some snow could at lower levels cannot be ruled out, I'm not sure how you can suggest a good snow event at ground level from that chart?

    Whilst 850's may support snow, other factors need to be added in. One factor would be the 0C isotherm heights- Here's the chart from the same run and the same time.

    attachicon.gifviewimage.png

    Typically, some transient snow (possibly heavy for a time) 200-500m, in heavier showers/bands of precipitation, the isotherm can be dragged down to allow snow to fall at lower levels.

    This experimental chart gives the sort of idea in what sort of heights/areas would see accumulations

    attachicon.gifviewimage (2).png

    It's all speculative this far out of course, and I'm not an expert but it's wise not to expect a "good snow event at ground level" from the type of chart you posted.

    It'll be fun watching some of those webcams on the Scottish mountains though! :)

    Because we don't all live in dorset?? That, for me, at ground level in the middle of the Scottish central belt (a well populated, significant part of the UK), could easily mean "a good snow event". 

     

    • Like 2

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by garbagebags

    In the grand scheme of things im not excited about a day toppler.Its the bigger picture im on about.

    This thread is not about "what we get excited about" It's about what the models are showing. 

     

     

    EDIT - I didnt move this thread. So now its not even relevant. Because this thread IS about "what we get excited about". 

    Over modding much? Sigh....

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by garbagebags

    Well all i see is cool zonal on pretty much all models after the next 5 days or so.The biggest bugbear is the limpet vortex near greenland.And with the pattern change(hopecasting)not showing,and tbh never was,we can only hope wave/warming will happen sooner rather than mo later!

    Frustarting times ahead for us coldies and i must say the ecm is testing at times with the over amplyfication shown on numerous times.On mobile so cant post charts.

     

    Really? Looks like a fairly good snow event here for Sunday, at ground level

     

    sdasdasd.png

    • Like 7

    Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Can someone tell me please, is the PV in general always "the enemy"? Like, would it be better if just never was there all winter (for cold and snow). Or do we need it to form but in the right places, or form and burst? how exactly does it work. Because im not sure if I want to be looking for no signs of PV or a ruined one, or do we need those dark purples but just not over greenland etc?

    Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Little change with the D10 GEFS and ECM anomalies this morning. Still running with a meridional jet south of the UK and tending above average temps/

     

    Your going to have to help me get my head rounds this one. How does the Jet dipping down below the UK in the third pic equate to the above average temps in the last pic, im confused, Surely such a JS would be pulling in cold air from the north?

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - 31/10/2014 and Beyond

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    sorry, im not being obtuse here, but why is a block ne america - western greenland good for the uk getting cold? surely thats too far west to produce a polar northerly, wouldnt it just allow low pressure to sit in the mid atlantic and thus leaving the uk in a mild southwesterly? (hopes).

     

    I believe positioning is critical. Ive seen ridges and blocks where a couple of hundred miles east and west of the ridge you've got +10's and the -10's. 

     

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