garbagebags
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Posts posted by garbagebags
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t144 and the block is 10mb higher than on the 0z run. so far liking this
run a lot.
True but it's quite a bit further east which will mean it will be harder for the cold to reach us (or in reality, simply not reach as far west)
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6z? On phone usually starts rolling out by now.
Coming out fine on desktop, at +132 now. Showing slightly higher heights to the north thus far.
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Can I ask, I see quite a lot of people showing the GEM model over the past few days. Whereas only a month ago it was ECM, GFS and MET that people looked at. Has the GEM become a lot better recently or is it just showing what people want to see? Serious question.
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We've gone yellow east of Greenland, I repeat we've gone yellow east of Greenland......
Can anyone help me, What is the thick black line between yellow and green called? And why is it relevant (i.e. bolded in this way)
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Hmm shortwave out in the Atlantic picking up a bit of gusto this run. Be lovely if it went SE to Europe, but my theory is it will bounce of the block like the 06z. Being more powerfull this run it might take some of the juice out the block this time though. Ahhhh speculation.
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Nobody utter a word of this to anyone ive made the mistake by mouthing off to my kids "theres snow on the way " only to be left with egg on my face....exciting times atm..shussssh
Already told everyone at work and my friends and will tell my wife when I get home. We all do it!!
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Good old Joe laminate floori seems very bullish about the cold and snow.
Really?? Well that's a first...
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12z can't come round quick enough
. I'm expecting (guessing) for it to be a medium ground between the 00z and the 06z. Slightly higher pressures both to the north and the south than the 06z. Who knows though. One things for sure. We are in "that model watching" zone again hold onto your hats. -
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Nearly every post on this page already talking about the end of a cold spell/snap that only reared it's head today! You have to laugh.
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It really is a weird run to call either "better" or "worse". The Heights to the north aren't as good, but then theres more low to the south of europe which is better. I think the only thing we can say is that its "different" with a similar outcome.
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In terms of pressure and JS I would say it's on par with the 00z, maybe actually slightly better "long term". In terms of the T850's and the cold actually arriving, no 2 ways about it, it's a massive downgrade.Perhaps reality will be some sort of middle ground.
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Easterlies always raises the most excitement on here. My excitement is a bit more "meh" as I personally have to say that an Easterly pretty much never produces snow for me here (Glasgow). But It's certainly a welcome break from storm after storm.
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Well without a doubt the GFS brings out the first "proper" winter charts since early Dec anyway.
Big question now is will it upgrade or will it downgrade? Place your bets please! -
Mmmm, ice day.
On high ground. First thing in the morning. Yes.
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Then we're into low re FI so may as well stop viewing.
Don't agree. FI is particularly useful at these times when looking for an overall pattern shift.
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So. Many. Lows...
Wouldn't be surprised if these merge to make yet another monster storm. -
With regards to the stratosphere-
Its totally the wrong thing to do to remove links/ images to the strat from this thread- As people are learning all the time & images will help that process & well as introduce people to thought of including it in their thought processes-
Its very straight forward- we have 3 threads already live.
All there needs be is-
General model discussion- which includes the usual links/banter/ stratosphere anything goes type posts
Indepth model thread
Indepth Stratosphere thread.
Job done.
S
PS cra**y 06z Ensembles- nothing like the ECM- 11/12/18 are the only ones of slight interest.
Lets hope the GFS is as useless as it was on the last eastwerly set up which was Feb last year....
Why would strat posts be removed from this thread? It is the stratospheric model the exact same as any other model. It is a model and this is the model thread. It would be like saying you can post ECM but not GFS.
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Well as far as the strat model goes. Doesn't come much better than that.
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While recent runs have suggested that there is now more to be optimistic than there was a few days ago in terms of getting the pattern most would like to see, I would agree there is nothing consistent showing for a real pattern change and the form horse still appears to be a continuation of the current vigorous Atlantic regime, although slightly less vigorous than recent days, hopefully this will change in the next few days.
I disagree. The pattern is looking to change in FI. To what, it's not sure, how, it's not sure but higher pressures to the north and lower to the south seem to be the key movement. The "form horse" is definitely not continuing vigorous Atlantic.
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But it might be cold at the surface?
It sure might feel cold.....If your on holiday from Dubai!
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If you ask me, the models (all of them) have been underestimating the eastward track of HP systems (hence our constant downgrade to northerlies). Because of this, I don't forsee this Euro high lasting as long as it's currently modeled to. Now that might be straw clutching but I would put a £10 on it.
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This is a Bartlett high, giving us mild air.
This is a Scandi High giving us cold air.
Just making that clear.
Because there sure as damned seems to be a lot of confusion in here tonight... -
A lot of brave faces in here at the moment and my hat goes off to you.If I am being honest? I haven't seen such a poor run of winter charts in quite a few years. Particularly if you go by the 850's. Looking mild or "warm" for pretty much everywhere for the whole GFS and ECM runs, including FI. If that kept going we could see an exceptionally +ve Dec CET and that's not an exaggeration.Having said that. Am I too bothered? Nope, the weather can entirely flip on its head in the space of 10 days, models completely turning around. So, the hope lives on.
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The scottish ski resorts have never really been a viable or reliable skiing destination anyway. Yes they have periods of good snow but there is no way i would pre book my skiing holiday there months in advance. Just too unreliable to say the least.
You mean to say you don't like skiing down ice and rocks?
Nah in all seriousness, I see your point. They are great if you live in Scotland and can go when conditions are good. But no way would I go unless they were great conditions.
. I'm expecting (guessing) for it to be a medium ground between the 00z and the 06z. Slightly higher pressures both to the north and the south than the 06z. Who knows though. One things for sure. We are in "that model watching" zone again hold onto your hats. 
Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Very good point. However summer rainfall isn't a very good example because they were isolated thunderstorms which is a completely different beast and impossible to predict where they will spring up exactly. Fronts are much more predictable.