garbagebags
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Posts posted by garbagebags
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This chart, IF it were to verify has 14c written all over it for Moray and parts of E Scotland on Monday. Not inconceivable that somewhere like Aboyne could see a 20c swing in temps between dawn on Fri and dawn on Mon.....as I said the other day, from the sublime to the ridiculous!
Is it too late for the term "Indian summer?" Im genuinely curious?
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I'm crossing my fingers for a raging easterly by Xmas, wouldn't it be great. And as stated the models are starting to warm to the idea, very encouraging update from fergie. So maybe just maybe this failed northerly might just turn into something much more potent and pleasing to the uk in general. Hopefully a nice countrywide event around the festive period.
I don't see how this is a failed northerly? Sure i'ts downgraded but its still a stonking northerly bringing -10! uppers over a lot of the country and even -12 uppers over scotland. There could well be blizzards and heavy snow drifting in the north. How is this a "failed northerly"?
Definitely a Northerly. And a biting one at that.
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Well the fact is ECM does show a slack SE flow and if that 240 chart were to verify we would have fairly decent chances of getting some cold uppers over in a couple of days or so.
But that said, yes it is FI and no it does not show a stonking Easterly and yes the support is tenuous and no nobody should get carried away and yes we have seen many Easterlies fail and no the UKMO is not yet on board and yes I am going to keep going on like this but no not really...
Let's just enjoy the ride and try to keep expectations in check - that's what you're really saying.
Precisely. I just think that, at this stage, this easterly chat would be better suited to the ramping thread as the chance of it coming of are....well.....
Of course I don't run this site and that is only my opinion but if a "newbie" was to stumble across this page they very well could assume that this easterly is happening the way some people are going on.
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I'm yet to see this Easterly that everyone else seems to be seeing??
After Sat all I see is a high pressure over the UK and average to above average temps. Even that stretches to the end of FI.Maybe we best stick to the facts here, and not set-ups that aren't even shown, yet alone in the reliable.
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Well lets hope that if one does materialise it actually backs up far enough West to deliver for the whole UK and not just the usual suspects. I'm still looking forward to this so called non event this weekend, there's still an outside chance of some snow on Thursday evening and Friday morning for NW England, with a cold weekend to boot with sub zero temps at night and temp crawling just above during the day.
Agreed. There is still a lot to cement. I mean, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that it could upgrade every run from now and be an actual stonker of a Northerly, for many many days. Blanketing the country in snow. Alas, people seem to prefer talking about easterlies that aren't even being shown in the deepest realms of FI.
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S'pose we're all trying to see as far ahead as possible to suss out the next trend/weather possibility - like chess - once something has been settled/nearly settled - the challenge is over!
Just strange because the coming Northerly is far from "set" It could upgrade, downgrade, last, not last, it could even go the way of "that ECM" and dissapear. Would just be nice to have more model chat with "weather that's likely" rather than "weather that's liked".
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....because they can?! The northerly for most is going to be pretty much non-eventful for most by the looks of it, so what happens after could be more exciting........Who knows? (i think i heard that recently!)
Well I've just looked and I don't see an easterly, not even in FI. Maybe, just maybe, the slightest hints of it heading possibly that way maybe, in the very last frame of FI...Hardly even worth talking about. I just always see the same. People obsessed with easterlies / FI and not about the next "real" event.
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This entire page, all talk about a potential easterly out in FI. And nothing on the mid term - very cold northerly,Why do people do this?
-the previous page
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Ive got a feeling this evenings ECM will be make or break. It will either push the high east (in which case i expect more downgrades from all the models in the days to come). Or it will hold fast. Meaning there is all to play for.
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Forgetting to mention Polar lows are probably the rarest phenomenon in British weather, I like your enthusiasm but the chances of this happening is 1 in a million.
1 in a million would mean a polar low once every 11 thousand winters? (assuming every day in winter is 1 chance).
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So many people, always going on about wishing for a scandi high. You do realise its not nearly cold enough to get any fun and games from a scandi yet?The only event that would be productive at this stage in the game would be a northerly or derivative thereof. An easterly would simply not be cold right now. The East isn't cold enough.
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Next weekends "cold snap" looking good...
via Imgflip GIF Maker
Anyone up for a BBQ?? -
Is there a model thread where people dont only talk about FI ? Seems the only thing people here look at. Might just as well head over to maddens page. Lets have some chat about the reasonable charts?
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18z looks mighty flat
Seems to be showing a very brief cold brought on only by the low, rather than any Atlantic ridging. Hope the ridging increases but the GFS has seemingly been overcooking Atlantic highs so far this season. Only to dowgrade them later.I see heavy rain followed by freezing temps. Much like the other week.
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Yes but not just any event, potentially a blizzard event dumping feet of snow. Hardly something to just dismiss offhand.Yes absolutely this is still some time away, but nothing to suggest that this is anymore than a 36-42 hour event.
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I think we really need to be looking towards next weekend for any kind of cold. People talking about "cold snap" next week. But to be honest the -5 line is hardly even making scotland. I don't consider that a cold snap at all.
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I don't buy the 06z. I wish I did but I don't. I mean that low at +114 shooting across the Atlantic, where has that suddenly come from?? I bet that has dissapeared in the 12z.
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Out in FI but this is a punishingly cold and snowy chart.
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Something I found a bit interesting here.
This is the model output for the GFS 8 days ago for Wednesday.
And this is it today
Now sure, it's not identical, but it does have the same features in the same places, all be it downgraded. Bear in mind that first chart was out in FI when I saved it a week back Sunday.Fluke or actual prediction?
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How would a low pressure system (storm) heading towards Greenland help blocking? Surely low pressure is the last thing you want in the Atlantic, southern Greenland?
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The fax charts are not identical to the UKMO runs. Senior forecasters take the UKMO chart along with any other data the feel is relevant to make the fax charts. They are the only "human" generated charts and are widely seen as "the best". 100's of marinas and thousands of sailors around the UK are sent the fax charts daily to use as reliable weather forecasting. People wouldnt risk their lives on the whim of the gfs or ecm.I don't put much faith in the fax's 99.9% of the time they are identical to the UKMO raw output and chop and change with every run. Btw A few Meto folks were tweeting earlier that they didn't buy the UKMO as it was more extreme than any other model and too far west with the front on weds
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Forgive me if this is the wrong place to post but I see a lot of excitement in the models of a potential future Scandi high and Easterly (Even more excitement for that than a greenland high) But am I not right in thinking that an easterly, at this time of year, with the continent the temperature it is, would this do nothing for us in terms of cold and snow? I would think you wouldn't see any snow below mountain tops as the uppers would struggle to get below 0. Surely a Northerly (at this stage) would be much better?
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It's unfortunate but one can definitely sense the air of despondency that has undoubtedly descended on the forum tonight. We talk of lowering ones expectations so as to avoid disappointment when charts fail to deliver but with the memories of Dec 09/Jan 10 and Nov /Dec 10 still etched on our minds it's nigh on impossible.
It would seem we need to stop viewing the models through rose tinted glasses and be open if indeed not accepting the fact we're unlikely to witness such an historic weather event again, for that's exactly what it was, HISTORIC with the exception of '47 and '62/63 of course
Problem is, (well for me anyway). I am pretty sure I'm veiwing the models neutrally. But when for the best part of a week its saying next week will be a freezer. All models agreeing, all runs agreeing. Then suddenly BANG, 4 massive downgrades in a row. It's difficult not to get disappointed. Nothing to do with rose tinted glasses. The models said what they said and then massively downgraded.
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ican honestly say the ukmo model is really building a good rep as over the year and months its really been very spot on and not just because of the cold output really starting to enjoy watching the ukmo model and the fact it only goes out to t144 just makes it that little bit more less stressfull.
I do agree though the ukmo makes it look very simplistic but the gfs is a rather stress realated model.
but then although the ecm this morning shows a thing of beauty for coldies it does look far more messy than the gfs and that's saying something.
But thats what makes the GFS so much fun and (deep down) everyones favourite model. Imagine how boring it would be on here with only a steady, level headed, models going to 120 or 144. Nah not for me.
I love the drunkard, slightly mentally unhinged but sometime brilliant Nostradamous character that is, the GFS.
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Seems to be showing a very brief cold brought on only by the low, rather than any Atlantic ridging. Hope the ridging increases but the GFS has seemingly been overcooking Atlantic highs so far this season. Only to dowgrade them later.
Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by garbagebags
What would qualify for an Indian summer? Mid to High teens? I remember a couple of years ago it was 16 degrees on Boxing day. That was weird. (If anyone could find me that chart I would be very happy, I remember it was very blowy too)
This must have been it -