garbagebags
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Posts posted by garbagebags
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It does look like a great wee spell coming. But to be fair it will be rather, if not very, short lived.
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December 11th 2011 for me I wrote it in my blog at the time,
For a few days every weather model had been showing a severe storm hitting mainly Ireland, England and Wales. It caused a lot of concern for the Met Office and the members on Net Weather. On the 11th of December the ECM done its evening run which was watched by 100's it made the storm nearly vanish, it caused a big surprised many thought it was a fluke, later the other models agreed with the ECM, I believe it's one of the ECM's finest moments.
Basically at the time all models showed a very deep low about 945mb hitting the UK giving average wind speeds over 60mph to parts of Ireland and most of England and Wales. To see some models show this just 96 hours away usually a time where they have pinned the track down then to change to nothing at all within the next 24 hours was amazing and shows anything can happen.
Not to mention "The beast from the East" last December... On of the GFS's darkest moments. Thats was 72hrs out. Then nothing...
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Don't want to be a party pooper but should individual frames way out in FI not really be posted in the ramping thread?
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00z and 06z are twins in high res.
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The negative AO and NAO is one of the things we need for a good winter in my opinion. The two epic winters of 09 and 10 each had severely negative NAO and AO months. It looks as though the start of winter / end of autumn will be quite cold now. I still don't see any signs of any blocking being set up atm but lest we not forget the Nov/Dec period of winter 2010/11. The models just now are pointing towards wintry weather next week (Currently waxing my board
) and while I'm not an expert (far from it), I still think it's possible to see the HP ridging to our NW, then migrate into a favorable position, and get "stuck" there. I.E End of Nov 2010.But arent the AO and NAO graphs produced from info taken from the model runs? They don't come before the models, they come after.
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I think "rampant zonality" is a bit harsh, sure the cold will dissapear but all the FI charts are producing anything but rampant zonality.
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Looking nice across all models this morning both for cold snap next week, and generally long range PV stuff too (technical term).
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Not true. You could see decent snowfall to low levels with the cold front pushing through on monday. Could even be heavy. I would call that more than remotely wintry.Dry with high pressure in control. No signs at all of anything remotely wintry on the 18z tonight bar a few frosts.
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Is it wrong that I prefer a NW wind to a NE wind? Where did I get that from? It's just that easterlies have never produced for me.
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* Garbage bags the ECM is not toppling- Its going exactly to plan with the ridge across to scand which will then allow the retrograde back NW as the next low moves into Scandi-
* Happy days- do you insist on posting stuff to wind people up- people we need to change your name to miserable ..........
ECM 240 shows a clasic reloading pattern for day 12- sadly most of the pessimists on here cant see further than the end of their nose.
S
Just because it topples into a good location doesnt mean it doesnt topple. Im sorry but for what we were hoping might become a greenland high, it has toppled.
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ECM toppling too now. Still a good 4 days next week
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ECM doesn't have quite as cold uppers as the GFS at T168, but a couple of degrees make little difference at this range.
Not to worry...
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I think we just have to come to terms with the fact that although it's going to be cold, even bitter. Its going to be very short lived. People say look for trends. Well the overriding trend is that this high will topple almost immediately.
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So confussed we have certain people saying cold and snow on way then others saying not. Think i will just watch out the window
Basically the signals in terms of us changing pattern are excellent. FI is consistently good.The actual cold coming next week itself has been downgraded somewhat.
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Yes, low heights over Europe essentially prevents a return to mild, but with low heights at Northern latitude we are not going to get HLB either.
Garbagebags - it's going to be a long winter for you if you agonise over each run like this - especially the GFS 06z.
Oh you don't need to tell me that. It's a nightmare. I just cant take down grading, I watch every frame as it comes out next to previous run and check every minute change in pressure and temp. Looking for changes.
...ive even been known to have a ruler up to the screen....
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Given a lobe of the polar vortex is moving through Northern Canada by day 7, then the Greenland block looks unlikely, what we need to look for is the formation of a high to our North east as the Atlantic ridge topples over a deep trough in the Med.
The GFS is far to keen to send a low forming over Canada straight towards Greenland with it seemingly not engaging the cold pool crossing the north of the country. The ECM on the other hand makes the low engage the cold unstable air, which causes it to deepen and curve more northwards up the west side of Greenland, providing a stronger ridge which collapses more slowly. The ECM I believe is handling this at least the closest to the correct solution.
Probably best someone does some MS paint job to illustrate this, my artistic talents are at best negligible
For purely selfish reasons. I have no interest in an Easterly. Last year we didn't have a single falling flake here after 7th December. And Easterlies were the reason.
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Not sure what your all so depressed about. ECWMF is chilly and so is the GFS, high pressure is sufficient to force an inversion and we'd have widespread frost from the below..
Well deep down we are all praying the high upgrades to a greenland block. Hopes of that are looking slimmer by the day. Thats why the negativity.
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I'm sorry for this negativity but that's an appalling run. What it does show is that (and lets be honest, this is the trend) We don't have a Block, and we aren't going to get a block. Sure a day or two of slightly below average temps, maybe a dusting for Scotland. But we most definitely are not blocked. Doesn't really look like that is going to change.
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06z looking better
Better ridging in the Atlantic and whilst the main low still moves east there is a shortwave developing which will run south east through the UK
Much lower heights over Greenland though. Causing things to topple very very quickly.
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The cold was most definitely present in the high res on the previous 18z, 12z, 06z, and 00z
I would have called that a trend?
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Oh dear. Is it just me but is the GFS 00z utterly dire. Refusing to build heights in North Atlantic, cold all but gone in high res
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We are going into the freezer next week.
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Pretty much a perfect conclusion there.A weird but respectful run from the 18z in my opinion, have absolutely no concern at all, arguably the worst run of the day in terms of cold some may say, but arguably no where near the worst. Cold is maintained for longer; however it is debatable as to whether it is as strong as previous runs. No cause for concern in my opinion at all
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Whats the craziest model run anyone has ever seen. As in, compared to the previous run, completely different. Have they ever been broken with crazy readings?
) and while I'm not an expert (far from it), I still think it's possible to see the HP ridging to our NW, then migrate into a favorable position, and get "stuck" there. I.E End of Nov 2010.
Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I just hope that this little low pocket that apeared on the ECM and now METO doesnt develop into something stronger. In which case we may only have cold for 1 day because although we do have a high in the Atlantic, with the greatest respect to it, it is a pretty feeble high and it would take much at all to destroy it.
Ooft. She's a cracker