Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[J10]

You could of course look at it another way. It's cold, wet and windy instead of mild wet and windy. Like having to choose between warm dog crap and cold white dog crap. Neither hold any appeal. When it's pouring with rain and blowing a gale as it was last night, the first thought that springs to mind is not "oh well at least the wind is coming from a different direction". More likely to be "oh great here we go again, just like last year then"

 

 

You could say cold wet and windy, but this is by no means a completely fair assessment, there has been a far better mix with some frosty, some dry sunny weather and a little wintriness for some. This is far better than last winter as most people tend to acknowledge, some people have already had more frosts than last winter.

 

You could also think that during the drier sunnier weather that things are better than last year, so things can be taken either way.

 

As for wind direction, North Westerly is considerably better down here on here on average, as we get drier and brighter weather than South Westerlies on average.

 

Things could be a lot worse early November being a case in point, if you were complaining about that period of weather I could understand it.

 

You are more than entitled to moan after all this is part of this thread title, but things can be a lot worse as well, so don't stamp on people with a different viewpoint. and to be honest your dog analogy is quite ridiculous.

Edited December 11, 2014 by J10

[MP-R]

^^ Agreed J10, one could say that the first ten days of this month have been varied if on a rather boring scale. 

 

Fingers crossed for a colder final third to the month. If what I have read over the last month or two still comes into fruition then it was always going to be the latter part of December that would see any proper cold. Like I've said before, we've done pretty well so far out of a generally Atlantic flow. In some ways it reminds me of the first half of December 2011.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

^^ Agreed J10, one could say that the first ten days of this month have been varied if on a rather boring scale. 

 

Fingers crossed for a colder final third to the month. If what I have read over the last month or two still comes into fruition then it was always going to be the latter part of December that would see any proper cold. Like I've said before, of the first half of we've done pretty well so far out of a generally Atlantic flow. In some ways it reminds me December 2011.

 

eh? im certain low levels in the south not seen a flake? i have had 5 minute sleet shower

[MP-R]

eh? im certain low levels in the south not seen a flake? i have had 5 minute sleet shower

 

I'm talking about wintry weather in general, which is more than just snow...

[Hocus Pocus]

Fascinating post by Ian F and not just because of the possible cold spell towards months end. Highly informative into how the MetO anaylise the model output and what they take into account and what they dismiss when trying to put some meat on the bones so to speak.

[Eugene]

^^ Agreed J10, one could say that the first ten days of this month have been varied if on a rather boring scale. 

 

Fingers crossed for a colder final third to the month. If what I have read over the last month or two still comes into fruition then it was always going to be the latter part of December that would see any proper cold. Like I've said before, we've done pretty well so far out of a generally Atlantic flow. In some ways it reminds me of the first half of December 2011.

 

Yes we have but that is all set to change starting next week, atlantic zonal spells aren't reliable enough to rely on cold, I would much rather have a HP cell slap bang over us lasting for weeks on end giving reliable cold, its going to be a nightmare planning anything over Christmas now not knowing what the temp will be day to day or the weather conditions.

[knocker]

Looking at the evolution of the GFS P next week is quite fascinating. There are four major players (at least).

 

Low pressure to the NW and N. The Azores HP in mid Atlantic who really is a naughty fella. A split jet leaving N. America combining in the eastern Atlantic and the low pressure systems spawning off the south east seaboard of the US under the southern arm of the jet and nipping NE and joining the flow betwixt the low pressure to the north and the Azores HP.

 

My intuition tells me that this will probably bring some very unsettled weather to the UK but will not produce the frost in these parts to put the final touches to the Brussel Sprouts in time for Xmas. Sort of nipping ( I like it) between the cooler NW flow and warmer (not mild) westerly.

 

Unfortunately a bit early in the run for any 'weak signals'.

 

Sorry. Needs to read backwards.

 

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Edited December 11, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Without doubt the sprouts are going to be struggling. Good example of the 'nipping' referred too above. The northern line is temporarily closed due too 'signal' problems.

Edited December 11, 2014 by knocker

[Bluebreezer54]

A few of you have asked today about rationale for the (tail-end of) UKMO latest 30-day outlook. There is, of course, a dedicated thread elsewhere for this but I'll just confirm that GloSea5 output remains the rationale behind the wording of the outlook towards end Dec-New Year, with some interesting/intriguing signals into that period. That's all I can share at present.

 

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[DAVID SNOW]

Without doubt the sprouts are going to be struggling. Good example of the 'nipping' referred too above. The northern line is temporarily closed due too 'signal' problems.

 

Very witty Knocks.I'm warming to you style, or is it the time of year?

[BM4PM]

I couldn't help but think of the theme tune too jaws when clicking through the ecm tonight.o well always tomorrow.

[Biggin]

They have used the GloSea5 model for the wording of there outlook

Their

[Bluebreezer54]

They have used the GloSea5 model for the wording of there outlook

 

Gloaea5 has high resolution in the strat and is currently projecting some HLB onto the new year. Probably as a result of forecast events in the strat during week 2.

 

Thanks for explaining that clearly.

[lindy2222]

Thanks for explaining that clearly.

What he means is the New Year Hogmany will get colder ..

[knocker]

I have to say the tickets for the Portreath beach barbecue on Xmas day are going like mild hot cakes.

 

Michael Ventrice â€@MJVentrice 

Ridge-Bridge signature in 11-15d period mean 500 height anomalies... set up does not favor big cold in US yet though pic.twitter.com/oD4FeEzR6h

Edited December 11, 2014 by knocker

[Bristawl Si]

Same weather as last year, now.

Hope it's not a repeat of last year.

[snowangel32]

Dissapointed with this mornings charts especially after last nights pub run gave us hope, i still think there are many twists and turns left to play out.

[shetland islands]

Apart from some snow over high ground this past week, it has generally been disappointing. No sign of anything substantial for the next two weeks at least. My friend who works with the weather in the military has said there has been no talk of a freezing cold winter by the UKMO in terms of their contingency planning. He said that latest discussions are that it will be mild/ average and unsettled from now into the new year.

[Timmytour]

This morning's runs can be pretty much binned because...........I don't really like them!

[snowangel32]

Apart from some snow over high ground this past week, it has generally been disappointing. No sign of anything substantial for the next two weeks at least. My friend who works with the weather in the military has said there has been no talk of a freezing cold winter by the UKMO in terms of their contingency planning. He said that latest discussions are that it will be mild/ average and unsettled from now into the new year.

Thats not what fergie said last nite and also the gfs was hinting an easterly last nite the models are so up and down at the moment any outcome is possible in a few days we will know hopefully.

This morning's runs can be pretty much binned because...........I don't really like them!

Yh agree it seems a pattern that the morning runs are a horror show then it gets better lol. God knows why

[knocker]

Classic example of PM and TM split.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

 

[knocker]

The search for the 'signal' is reaching fever pitch but it's proving elusive.

Charts weatherbell

 

[seaside 60]

It doesn't matter if you like cold or mild in the winter.

When you wake up to rain and it still being dark at 8am, its so depressing.

[Carl46Wrexham]

How many more days before we can consign this month to the bin?

Nearly halfway through and for the majority of us it's been pretty poor fare. The models frankly don't give much scope for optimism for the foreseeable future either unless you are up a Scottish mountain.

Have only had 1 air frost so far (3rd Dec) and not so much as a single "wintry" shower...plenty of rain and rain showers though. Not experienced anything yet to convince me that it's "better than last winter". Better than last winter in my book would be either cold snowy weather or mild and dry weather. It's neither though, it's cold wet garbage. Sorry, just calling it as im seeing it.

[snow freak]

it's always ...lets see what the next 12 days bring.  well i can guarantee we will get rain and mild thats for sure.  i think i am going to give up on the search for cold and snow (or anything remotely interesting winterwise) in this country.  Just leads you up the garden path and disappoints.  very boring weather.