Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[mushymanrob]

I might have missed something, but have noticed that Steve Murr doesn't post very much on the Models forum recently. I do miss his posting, any idea whats happening?

 

with all due respect to sm... there are loads more knowlegable people making great and unbiased posts in the md thread. unbiased posts are the ones more likely to become reality, cold biased (or heat in summer) arent and are nothing more quite often then hopecasting.

 

In the reliable time frame it's cold and wintry, any 'mild' is well into FI. Seems pretty desperate to me. Fergy also confirmed there would be no mild in the 10-15 days time frame

 

give it a rest mate you are always going on and on about mild! i think youre a secret mildy! we all know theres nothing mild in the reliable and the chances of anything mild anytime soon are pretty thin, we dont need you to tell us - its like an obsession!

 

Unfortunately no lessons are being learnt and it's the silly season again.

There are some quality posts in the model thread but unfortunately they are too often lost in the mass of dross. Too often I see posts by mods, admin etc saying "Some posts have been removed, edited etc, model discussion only etc"

I'm not sure why it's bad on this site, I post on UKWW and TWO there are no issues. The proof is the fact that there is a moaning, ramping model thread to try and counter it.

Not sure how many people are put off trying to read or post in the model thread, I know I am. I seldom visit or post in it now.

The mods/admin must be fed up trying to supervise that thread.

 

... this is a public forum, open to people with all depths of interest and knowlege, there is an 'in depth' thread where you can post more considered views, why not post there?

 

mods/admin dont have to... its their choice, and (as an ex mod on other sites) it might be troublesome at times, but that goes with the teritory.

[MR EXTREMES]

As I suggest last night by a professional forecaster the odds were always in favour of heights to our South !

With out low pressure cutting into Europe this was always going to be the form horse although the Azores heights that's been stuck there for days helps with a little wintry weather in the near term it destroys any hope long term.

I think it's a case of so near but so far.

The more worrying factor is the steady decline in the warming of the strat.

Sometimes the weather just don't want to play ball.

I do feel the pain of fellow coldies but the clear indications across the outputs do show a close but no cigar.

So the best thing is make the most of the wintry stuff in the near term.

Perhaps jan can deliver.

And tamara did not suspect anything sustained in December anyway it's always been called in jan although the post on Twitter by Matt Hugo suggest mid jan for warming in the strat so I fear everyone is already starting to fear the worst.

But it's all a learning curve it's not like the 80s when you could look out the window in winter and expect at some point it's going to be snowy weather wise things have changed dramatically in the decade since!.

I also think the excitement of a few winters in 08 09/10 and 11/12 have left us with high expectations,

but the true fact is that since the spotless sun days back then solar activity is much higher since.

[Weather-history]

... this is a public forum, open to people with all depths of interest and knowlege, there is an 'in depth' thread where you can post more considered views, why not post there?.

I'm not much of an expert, so I can not add value to such a thread.

[MR EXTREMES]

All I can say is a lot of confidence from top posters is possibly starting to turn into another horror winter.

[Hocus Pocus]

Oh dear the there seems quite a lot of despair over on the MOD thread, I don't know why really as these sort of set ups always bring swings and roundabouts. Nothing is settled beyond 7 days yet and could go one way or the other, some in the low lying parts of Scotland are already reporting snow so just because your back yard hasn't seen any it's not the end of the world.

Edited December 7, 2014 by Hocus Pocus

[cyclonic happiness]

I'm not much of an expert, so I can not add value to such a thread.

I think it's lovely to see all the emotion and enthusiasm within the forum. I've been here a long time too and have been though all the ups and downs (phantom easterlies) but I absolutely love getting wrapped up in all the ramping and high expectations, it's better to go to bed on a high note after the 18z and then sleep all night dreaming of blizzards.

 

Ofc you can add value to the thread, it's just a reflection of human nature all the one liner posts, but they are all adding to the 'feeling' of the season, even if nothing happens.

 

The only thing I dislike is when sometimes you are made to feel like you should have a degree in meteorology just to be able to post in the MO thread, that needs weeding out more than the enthusiastic folk imo.

[Bristawl Si]

My take this morn is that ALL the models are a bit naff at predicting past 6/7 days, except the Meto's Mogreps and Glos something.

Ian's little updates always seem to ring true a week or two down the line.

Anyway, despite the technical 'synoptics' being different from last year, and Yes we've had frosts, still looks like a watered down version of last year to me, over next couple of weeks. i.e. the weather.

[Weather-history]

Anyway, despite the technical 'synoptics' being different from last year, and Yes we've had frosts, still looks like a watered down version of last year to me, over next couple of weeks. i.e. the weather.

Can you have a watered down version of wetness? Wouldn't it be a drier version? In any case, it looks a typical unsettled winter weather pattern.

It's funny how an extreme event or season is then latched onto and then compared against.

Edited December 7, 2014 by Weather-history

[JOPRO]

So winters over after one set of morning runs?? Que normal round of told you So etc etc. I always thought we should be treating day 10 out put with caution??

[Mr Frost]

Time for a ramp!

Winter has arrived here - heavy snow showers blowing through every half an hour.

Massive flakes! Only settling on the grass at present.

Nothing better than a December snowfall in all its seasonal glory!

Only downside is you guys down south are not joining in - still plenty of Winter to go for that.

[stainesbloke]

We are only 7 days into winter proper and I've already seen more frosts and low temperatures than in the whole of last winter, which was just awful. Of course it is frustrating watching modelled cold disappear but it's early days. Snow in Dec isn't the norm for much of the UK so plenty of time to be optimistic.

[Gord]

I always use December 2012 as a reminder that things can change. The period around Christmas was very wet and stormy, the models were being awful at teasing us with cold weather. I always remember that as a very tricky month to negotiate on these forums. It really was looking bleak at times. Then of course the rest of the winter did deliver the goods. Things will change. Last year was exceptional. It's not unusual to have one winter month dominated by westerlies but all three was really odd. So there's nothing to worry about yet. Plus we've had a few beautiful frosty mornings so far.

Don't let last winter cloud judgements over this winter. We all agree that a 62/63 is rare, so surely a 13/14 is also quite rare?

[sparky1972]

well after getting a little excited over earlier predictions for a bit of a colder shot, things have gone a bit pear shaped, at least for here, temps this week forcast to be between 9 and 6c, no night time frosts, still very early days though, fingers crossed us coldies get the deep cold and snow we all dream of.

[mcweather]

Thanks for this Barry   You are however wrong on both counts you suggest :

 

1) I have explained in extended detail, as much as I am able, the progress of the patterns thus far from autumn (see first posts back in October in OPI thread and then continued on this MOD thread thereafter last month and into this). Many of these posts have had copied entries to illustrate continuity of thought so that progress can be checked and thereby form a very transparent check for accuracy. But most importantly of all (as far as I am concerned) for learning when mistakes are made - as they most certainly will be in a science as complicated and unpredictable when it comes to evaluating weather and weather patterns..........................................................

A superb and detailed post Tamara, not to say a great riposte to those who seem to throw their toys out of the pram because the charts don't show what they want to see..................... yet.

 

Yourself and other very experienced and knowledgable posters ( as opposed to chart  commentators) have always pointed out that this winter was likely to be a slow burner which was unlikely to see a pattern change until mid to late December at the earliest. So why any one would want to comment that it hasn't happened yet or they cannot see it in the model output is as you say somewhat bewildering.

 

45 years of weather watching in the British winter has taught me one thing and that is that the watch word in the search for cold and snow from Northern Blocking is patience.  Unfortunately we now live in a society governed by instant gratification where most things can be accessed at the touch of a button. The weather,  thank heavens is not one of those things that we can have at the touch of a button which is what makes it so interesting.

Edited December 7, 2014 by mcweather

[Hotspur62]

Fantastic post from Tamara earlier just pointing out that "Patience" is really the key word as we move from embryonic stages of winter. With my basic understanding of reading the different models we are in a period of traditional type British weather with Northern hillier areas best placed to turn white although it is possible this may extend Southwards later next week. After that, we may turn a little milder with winds more of a Westerly element as opposed to NW element but this is no way a dead cert and it is equally possible that we will continue in the regime we are currently in. Like others have said before I cannot see any signs of Northern Blocking in the near future and my 40 odd years of weather pattern watching tells me that it will be very near the turn of the year before things may get more interesting for a UK cold spell which would have this place in meltdown

 

In the meantime good luck to those who see some of the white stuff this week  and lets hope it is the started to the main course which will commence at the end of the year  

[Barry12]

What was the key word last winter? oh yeah it was patience.. LOL

[mushymanrob]

What was the key word last winter? oh yeah it was patience.. LOL

You have a very valid point there barry, you might have to be patient for another winter or two! Lol

[Hocus Pocus]

You have a very valid point there barry, you might have to be patient for another winter or two! Lol

You do know that's a call to arms for some on here mushy.

[Yarmy]

Have to keep a beady eye on this as serious consideration may have to be given to starting a new thread entitled, "Have you turned your air conditioning on yet".

The last one of these long range toasty anomaly charts posted ended up being the coldest day here in 20 months (it was for Nov 22nd or 23rd as I recall). Keep em coming :-)

Need to see a bit more amplification of this kind...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/0/06/Spinal_Tap_-_Up_to_Eleven.jpg

...before I get excited. Early days.

[Polar Maritime]

I've deleted some posts, Back to Model based banter/moans/ramps please. 

Edited December 7, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Eugene]

Pattern looking all too familiar with westerlies dominating, we've been lucky so far with PM dominating but it won't be long until our luck runs out and mild atlantic airmasses start pushing over us.

[Iceaxecrampon]

7th of December failed to deliver as promised according to the models in Cumbria ppn totals but heres hoping for the rest of the week.

 

 

Eventful journey up over Shap on the M6 to Keswick 320asl sleety near Hardendale - nice short walk up Castlehead then back through Dunmail

to  Windermere on the A591 visiting relatives. Hail and sleety mix when leaving about 4pm.

 

 

Slight dusting on the Newlands fells  - Dodds and Helvellyn more so - looked tempting

 

Ian

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Man With Beard]

So 7 days into winter, where are we so far?

1. Snow already falling in Scotland

2. Snow cannot be ruled out for 90% of us in the next 7 days

3. My car scraper is actually being used, unlike last winter when I think I used it once in November

4. Strat posters who I consider level headed are almost ramping about likely developments 10hpa to 1hpa

5. My winter forecast has already failed dramatically

As for those confidently predicting a return to zonality, aren't they the ones who'd confidently predicted High Pressure over the UK for now just 7 days ago??

[sparky1972]

well after hearing that this week was supposed to be turning a little colder, the met office forecast for here at least is it to turn milder, but hey, i have had to de-ice the car twice this winter already, which is more than last winter, lol.

[Hocus Pocus]

Interesting post by Ian F *potential* pattern change come later in the month. I wonder how mank likes this post will get.