Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Hocus Pocus]

Time for a moan - yet again we've got people revelling in zonal charts at day 16 / 384 hours. I don't know why they bother other than for a wind up. Another poster on the blocked list.

I wouldn't worry the same said posters have been posting these charts since the middle of November and I'm still waiting.

[TonyH]

Time for a moan - yet again we've got people revelling in zonal charts at day 16 / 384 hours. I don't know why they bother other than for a wind up. Another poster on the blocked list.

Just looked but its not at all obvious to me that anyone has been doing this

[Paul]

Just looked but its not at all obvious to me that anyone has been doing this

 

I agree, we're more than happy to deal with issues if people are deliberately trolling discussions, so anyone seeing that please report it. But just because someone isn't just talking about the potential for cold, it doesn't make them a troll at all - not everyone has to have the same focus

[mushymanrob]

Time for a moan - yet again we've got people revelling in zonal charts at day 16 / 384 hours. I don't know why they bother other than for a wind up. Another poster on the blocked list.

 

.... thought this forum was for weather, thats all types of weather, IF the charts show zonal and IF they like zonal...whats the problem? why should this be seen as a wind up?... the most inaccurate posts come from those posting from a bias pov, which at this time of the year is from 'coldies'. are these possible cold evolution posts a wind up? no...its part of what happens. people will look for their prefered weather types (unfortunately, id sooner see unbiased posts).

[knocker]

I wouldn't worry the same said posters have been posting these charts since the middle of November and I'm still waiting.

 

For Godot?

[Hocus Pocus]

For Godot?

May as well be as the Atlantic mild westerlies will still be way out in La La land, much as any deep cold but I haven't ramped or sought attention by posting said charts.

[Harps]

.... thought this forum was for weather, thats all types of weather, IF the charts show zonal and IF they like zonal...whats the problem? why should this be seen as a wind up?... the most inaccurate posts come from those posting from a bias pov, which at this time of the year is from 'coldies'. are these possible cold evolution posts a wind up? no...its part of what happens. people will look for their prefered weather types (unfortunately, id sooner see unbiased posts).

Well said, this is a great forum in most ways but I find it very hostile at this time of year towards anyone putting forward a different viewpoint to cold and snow. Personally, having grown up in north western Ireland winter was more about storms than snow and I've always liked seeing nature at its wildest, to mention a storm positively in the model threads though I'd be dismissed as a 'troll'and instantly shot down

[knocker]

May as well be as the Atlantic mild westerlies will still be way out in La La land, much as any deep cold but I haven't ramped or sought attention by posting said charts.

 

Well since you are accusing people it would be courteous to say to whom you refer so that they can respond.

[Paul]

We need to drop this now, there's no point getting into a slanging match about un-named posts/posters. If anyone has an issue with a post then they can/should report it - the team will look at it, and since there are a number of us we can come to a hopefully balanced view and go from there. 

 

If you think a member is out to cause trouble but don't have a post in front of you, you can even report them from their profile. And of course there's always the option to drop a member of the team a pm with any concerns you may have.

 

If someone isn't breaking rules in your opinion, but you still don't enjoy their posts, you can block them:

https://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=usercp&tab=core&area=ignoredusers

 

So beyond that, there really should be no need for this type of thing to be covered in this or any other thread. For the avoidance of doubt though, this thread is for model related moans, banter and ramps, not member related.

[Bristawl Si]

Well the model runs seem to be doing their best to verify that Meto contingency winter forecast that was released the other week.

[Captain Shortwave]

Time for a moan - yet again we've got people revelling in zonal charts at day 16 / 384 hours. I don't know why they bother other than for a wind up. Another poster on the blocked list.

Don't need to revel. The Atlantic westerlies break through tomorrow giving the usual mix to polar maritime and tropical maritime flows as troughs and ridges move from west to east across the UK. Pretty average but at this time of year the cooler spells can give wintry conditions, even at lower levels at times.

[TwisterGirl81]

I don't see what's so terrible about the long range ensembles. If you look at the NAEFS height anomaly for +144, around 'peak vortex', you can see a negative anomaly right across the pole, strongest at Greenland and in the Northwestern Pacific:

 

By the end of the run you can see heights over the US starting to transfer northeast towards the mid Atlantic and Western Greenland with basically neutral height anomalies over the pole and the trough to the northwest sinking gradually further south:

This looks broadly in line with expectations of an increasingly -AO as we go into the second half of December with a mean trough over the UK. Of course, at the surface level this pattern could still look similar, at least at first, to what we had last winter, but with the Russian high exerting more influence again and hints of another warming and wave 1 activity in the upper strat., combined with the MJO *potentially* getting into phase 7, I wouldn't necessarily write off the rest of December for more significant cold for all of us (although with an ice warning out tomorrow and a snow warning on Sunday/Monday for Scotland I don't think there's much wrong with the current pattern at all ).

 

 

Because you live in Scotland where it struggles to even be warm in the summer at times and where snow is always most likely, Scotland always gets snow every year, you don't need to be clairvoyant or a great weather forecaster to predict that lol

[Frosty.]

Models are only disappointing if you expected a severe Siberian icy blast. Living on our temperate little island we don't get many of those but after the generally warm autumn, a spell of cold zonal weather is just what the doctor ordered..dull, uninspiring, disappointing, run of the mill it ain't..that was October and November in a nutshell. :-)

[Peejayem]

The swear filter is positively screaming for 'last year' to be added. And just to add that it doesn't appear to be foolproof, buildings blocks slipped through recently.

Any chance of adding 'seasonal' in there?

[Snowboard Tennyson IOW]

It is very interesting watching the daily posts ranging from excitement at potential of cold arriving,then within 24hrs the posts swing back to disappointment when the models throw in a milder or slack set of runs! Human behaviour I will stick to some of the detailed posts that predict cold I have read and enjoyed, and keep my fingers crossed that we are just turning a corner.. Mid December onwards is going to be pivotal. Some of the runs are suggesting the Azores high pushing east and looks to cover a huge part of Europe including the Uk, temps to my untrained eye look seasonal with a westerly flow?? Could anyone explain what the set up would deliver.

[Mapantz]

I've seen absolutely, completely and totally zero sign of the 'inevitable zonal' train touted around by certain members. Some would consider that 'quite extraordinary'.

I think it's a bit farfetched to say members have been mentioning a zonal train.

This was posted by Ian F earlier in the week.

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81934-model-output-discussion-the-start-of-winter/?p=3078596

with confidence good for more zonal set-up into the following week

Zonal conditions would be the jet moving more from west to east, and that's what IS being touted.

Edited December 4, 2014 by Mapantz

[Frosty.]

This upcoming cold zonal spell looks more potent than anything we had last winter, quite a lot of potential this time around and not just for the Scottish mountain resorts..I'm really looking forward to this wintry rollercoaster ride in the run up to Christmas..the future is looking bright for coldies..perhaps even white..:-)

[Paul_1978]

It was my post this morning that sparked some of the debate earlier. Apologies to all, I guess my frustrations got the better of me, and which is why I headed to the Moan thread.

Anyway, happy model watching to all, whatever your weather preference!

Edited December 4, 2014 by Paul

[Lauren]

Maybe I just don't 'get it', but I really don't see why people get so worked up over what a chart is saying for over a fortnights time, by the time it actually gets here it will probably have completely changed as usual.

[mushymanrob]

Maybe I just don't 'get it', but I really don't see why people get so worked up over what a chart is saying for over a fortnights time, by the time it actually gets here it will probably have completely changed as usual.

Neither do i..... I wont elaborate though

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12Z GFS looking a bit better in FI, less wet, still feel as though GFS 12Z is underplaying the Atlantic, Zonal it is likely until end of Dec

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Think ECM will be nearer than GFS for friday 12th, finally what looks to be an accurate ECMWF FI

[Paul_1978]

Maybe I just don't 'get it', but I really don't see why people get so worked up over what a chart is saying for over a fortnights time, by the time it actually gets here it will probably have completely changed as usual.

It's hard to explain but most coldies "get it". Anyway, that's my last word on the matter.

[Bristawl Si]

These latest charts are showing nothing more than an average Winter set up for the UK.

Snow likely on higher ground in the North and maybe to lower levels at times, with the South cold and wet.

Standard winter set up

[Bradowl]

These latest charts are showing nothing more than an average Winter set up for the UK.

Snow likely on higher ground in the North and maybe to lower levels at times, with the South cold and wet.

Standard winter set up

 

Any charts shown for beyond a fortnight are unlikely to be accurate. 

 

Anything could could happen in Jan and Feb. 

 

Like other posters have said, over next week it looks as though we'll see the weather switching from rather chilly conditions to brief mild on a number of occasions.  

Edited December 4, 2014 by Bradowl