Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Bristawl Si]

Cant see much happening in terms of cold and snow this side of mid-Dec.

The strat thread seems to have gone a bit 'flat' as well in recent days, which aint a good sign.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I feel a normal Dec developing, I feel from around Dec 10th, it will become unsettled with Atlantic air, and relentless westerlies, models seem to be trending that way

 

make most of the mostly dry 9 or so opening days of Dec, cos the rain is coming

[Barry12]

I feel a normal Dec developing, I feel from around Dec 10th, it will become unsettled with Atlantic air, and relentless westerlies, models seem to be trending that way

 

make most of the mostly dry 9 or so opening days of Dec, cos the rain is coming

 

I'm getting dejavu

[mountain shadow]

Cant see much happening in terms of cold and snow this side of mid-Dec.

The strat thread seems to have gone a bit 'flat' as well in recent days, which aint a good sign.

Echoes my thoughts. And with the PV segment unable to shift from Greenland it seems any decent cold spell is a long way off.

The Start thread quietness isthe bbiggest worry.

[knocker]

Obviously  when looking at charts from around T240 onwards the Saxo needs to be handy but I have noticed one peculiar trait of late. When said charts are showing a pretty bland outlook dissatisfaction with them intensifies and they tend to be dismissed out of hand. And yet if the same imposters indicate a forthcoming arctic blast accompanied by blizzards they are a gift from heaven and a salivation fest ensues. Must be something to do with the algorithms but not the ones pertaining to the model.

[Snowman.]

Echoes my thoughts. And with the PV segment unable to shift from Greenland it seems any decent cold spell is a long way off.

The Start thread quietness isthe bbiggest worry.

IMHO they are more likely to speak up if something bad pops and would express that.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I'm getting dejavu

 

cool, so am I with the way dec is shaping up, GFS 00Z probably the least unsettled, ECM FI is horrid, GEM FI is the worst run I have ever seen, I live at low level in the South

[kate1]

Echoes my thoughts. And with the PV segment unable to shift from Greenland it seems any decent cold spell is a long way off.

The Start thread quietness isthe bbiggest worry.

I think the Strat thread is quiet because they are awaiting a SSW - which may not happen as quickly as first anticipated - there isn't a lot to say atm.

[knocker]

Yesterday in these parts was a good example of the precarious connection between 850mb and surface temps and assuming lapse rates.. It was quite clear here until mid morning when a Sc layer around 3000ft arrived. So on the midday ascent note the cloud top about 900mb and the inversion.

Edited December 2, 2014 by knocker

[garbagebags]

Cant see much happening in terms of cold and snow this side of mid-Dec.

 

 

Really?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Really?

 

not for the south, wish I wrote for the express, because I would write 'Rain and flooding to cause misery this Xmas, thousands of homes will be flooded from mid Dec, and bucket loads of rain to fall upto new years day

[joggs]

Really? Looks like a fairly good snow event here for Sunday, at ground level

 

In the grand scheme of things im not excited about a day toppler.Its the bigger picture im on about.

[garbagebags]

In the grand scheme of things im not excited about a day toppler.Its the bigger picture im on about.

This thread is not about "what we get excited about" It's about what the models are showing. 

 

 

EDIT - I didnt move this thread. So now its not even relevant. Because this thread IS about "what we get excited about". 

Over modding much? Sigh....

Edited December 2, 2014 by garbagebags

[I remember Atlantic 252]

This thread is not about "what we get excited about" It's about what the models are showing. 

 

 

EDIT - I didnt move this thread. So now its not even relevant. Because this thread IS about "what we get excited about". 

Over modding much? Sigh....

 

Agree with that, but models are showing normal Dec weather from the 10th, howling winds and heavy rain for the south, cannot really expect much else in Dec, the first few days are unusual, not particularly cold but mainly quiet

[garbagebags]

While some snow could at lower levels cannot be ruled out, I'm not sure how you can suggest a good snow event at ground level from that chart?

Whilst 850's may support snow, other factors need to be added in. One factor would be the 0C isotherm heights- Here's the chart from the same run and the same time.

viewimage.png

Typically, some transient snow (possibly heavy for a time) 200-500m, in heavier showers/bands of precipitation, the isotherm can be dragged down to allow snow to fall at lower levels.

This experimental chart gives the sort of idea in what sort of heights/areas would see accumulations

viewimage (2).png

It's all speculative this far out of course, and I'm not an expert but it's wise not to expect a "good snow event at ground level" from the type of chart you posted.

It'll be fun watching some of those webcams on the Scottish mountains though!

Because we don't all live in dorset?? That, for me, at ground level in the middle of the Scottish central belt (a well populated, significant part of the UK), could easily mean "a good snow event". 

 

[Mapantz]

Because we don't all live in dorset?? That, for me, at ground level in the middle of the Scottish central belt (a well populated, significant part of the UK), could easily mean "a good snow event".

I didn't post all of that due to the fact I live in Dorset. I'm not sure how you came to your conclusion from my reply? but, obviously you didn't read it.

Enjoy being snowed in!

[garbagebags]

I didn't post all of that due to the fact I live in Dorset. I'm not sure how you came to your conclusion from my reply? but, obviously you didn't read it.

Enjoy being snowed in!

I did read it. I very much doubt i'll be snowed in. (conditions aren't indicative to such an event). I do however look forward to perhaps a white landscape and proper snow. (in other words a "good snow event") 

[LomondSnowstorm]

I didn't post all of that due to the fact I live in Dorset. I'm not sure how you came to your conclusion from my reply? but, obviously you didn't read it.

Enjoy being snowed in!

To be fair, you did post a chart which showed (taken at face value) lying snow for most of the central belt including Glasgow, and also for a fair bit of Ireland and NW England, and then talked about having to look at webcams of the mountains to find snow. 

You make a fair point about the 0C isotherm though, certainly it would provide a difficulty for lying snow, but the temperatures for Sunday afternoon look reasonable enough to sustain at least falling snow to low levels away from the coast:

Edited December 2, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[Mapantz]

To be fair, you did post a chart which showed (taken at face value) lying snow for most of the central belt including Glasgow, and also for a fair bit of Ireland and NW England, and then talked about having to look at webcams of the mountains to find snow. 

You make a fair point about the 0C isotherm though, certainly it would provide a difficulty for lying snow, but the temperatures for Sunday afternoon look reasonable enough to sustain at least falling snow to low levels away from the coast:

Look at height contours as well. It's not just a map of lying snow.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Look at height contours as well. It's not just a map of lying snow.

Ah, I see what you mean now, but I think the contours are the freezing level superimposed onto the snow depth map rather than the snow level - the meteociel chart for snow depth looks similar, snow clearly down to near sea level around Ayrshire:

 

Anyway, it's pretty much irrelevant at this stage since it's still 5 days out

[mushymanrob]

so what if some scottish mountains get some wet snow for a while?... unless you live there of course!

those precip prediction charts though shouldnt be taken as gospel, they are only a possible indicator and not only arent accurate but could change.

[Paul]

Just a reminder as one or two posts have been removed, this thread still needs to have some relation to the model output, and posts talking about 'winter being over' and 'no snow in x, y or z this year' aren't that..

[legritter]

If we get some good deep cold we could get some good lake effect snow with SST above normal ,I know this Can be hit and miss but atleast some of the magical stuff .I fancy a good old Ramp ,bring it on ,i,v got a new Halogen 500 watt outside lamp fitted for snow flake watching ,And my other half is going to let me peep out the corner of the curtains so long as i dont get my grubby hands messing them up .Nice to see the polar Vortex on the move and sort of soothing that theres plenty of winter to come ,   well gang     i,ll have a half .sorry forgot to say GFS SHUNTING THINGS FURTHER SOUTH A LITTLE ON CURRENT RUN .

Edited December 2, 2014 by legritter

[Barry12]

The GFS has been boring for weeks now

 

at least the ECM shows some interest in FI every now and again.

[conor123]

Pattern just looks to flat on current charts, sub -5 upper's and 4c maxes at 180hrs always end up around -1/-2 upper's and 8c maxes come the day even if the pattern doesn't change much.

Azores high far to near, typical when it fled 1000 miles south in August when we wanted it