Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Next week looking cloudy, fairly mild with westerlies, but at least mostly dry, could be way worse with low pressure and rain

[mushymanrob]

Often mocked as the pub run.

 

I don't ignore it but I rate other models and different GFS runs over the 18z like 0z and 12z GFS runs.

 

 

mocking a run and referring to it as 'the pub run' is daft imho.

the gfs is american, i presume its released in america, where its midday!

[knocker]

I know not why but looking at some posts and the response to them in the other thread I'm reminded of a painting by Leonardo DaVinci.

[V for Very Cold]

seems it's a lot of jam tomorrow currently - great watching but nothing within touching distance

[mushymanrob]

some contradiction on the md thread... i get the impression that looking into fi when it shows mild is ridiculous, but looking into fi when it shows cold is ok because its a sign of pattern change. the current gfs runs in fi suggest average/mild and are ignored whilst just a couple of weeks ago fi showed possible cold evolutions which were hailed as the start of something special.

of course you can pick out future events in fi... but these events cut both ways. personally i take fi with a large pinch of salt as 'events' be it a freeze or a summer heatwave, more often then not get downgraded as they enter the reliable.

 

fi is fi , its no more reliable when it shows cold then mild.

 

[Hocus Pocus]

I still see a sinking high due to the jet riding over the top of it, so after a few days of cold frosty weather we'll be looking at SW/W airflow which will bring nothing but grey skies and patchy drizzle.

[knocker]

The swear filter doors (schoolboy section) are now open for business - time to boot 'eye candy' in.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I still see a sinking high due to the jet riding over the top of it, so after a few days of cold frosty weather we'll be looking at SW/W airflow which will bring nothing but grey skies and patchy drizzle.

 

Still miles better than a normal Dec mind you, raging Atlantic, gales and rain

[Hocus Pocus]

Still miles better than a normal Dec mind you, raging Atlantic, gales and rain

Indeed it is and hopefully down the line we'll finally get some much deserved wintry weather for all of us who enjoy such conditions.

[Buxton Codge]

The  models today remind of this time last year (i.e. a quiet start to December before the jet increases followed by a wet spell of weather for Northern Europe)

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12Z ECM, looks very realistic, think it will be close to the eventual outcome, but I do, over future runs expect the Atlantic to be more dominant, Dry in Dec surely unlikely and too good to be true, this particular run still suggests mainly dry for the south

[Barry12]

12Z ECM, looks very realistic, think it will be close to the eventual outcome, but I do, over future runs expect the Atlantic to be more dominant, Dry in Dec surely unlikely and too good to be true, this particular run still suggests mainly dry for the south

 

That's what they said 4 years ago today

[I remember Atlantic 252]

That's what they said 4 years ago today

 

Sadly that was once in a lifetime event, Dec is the most Atlantic dominated month of the year, and do not expect any other weather, same for Jan really

[Barry12]

Sadly that was once in a lifetime event, Dec is the most Atlantic dominated month of the year, and do not expect any other weather, same for Jan really

 

Theres been many December and January's throughout history that haven't been Atlantic dominated though. 

Edited November 26, 2014 by Barry95

[knocker]

I'm reminded of Mark Twain

 

"The reports of and early winter were greatly exaggerated"

[Buxton Codge]

So in summary tonights models suggest a dry start to December followed by a return to wetter and milder pattern in the 2nd week. Meanwhile, the Eastern states of America can prepare for another Polar Vortex!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

So in summary tonights models suggest a dry start to December followed by a return to wetter and milder pattern in the 2nd week. Meanwhile, the Eastern states of America can prepare for another Polar Vortex!

 

likely so, for 2nd week, cannot really expect much else for Dec

[Blessed Weather]

What the heck!!! Now this just isn't fair! Some of us are sat here in the UK patiently waiting for our first snow of the winter and that totally reliable model, the GFS,     is showing snow for Morocco on the 6th Dec!!

 

How can Morocco have snow before us??!!  

[knocker]

So in summary tonights models suggest a dry start to December followed by a return to wetter and milder pattern in the 2nd week. Meanwhile, the Eastern states of America can prepare for another Polar Vortex!

 

Not sure where you got that from it's a Nor'easter.

[bobbydog]

I know not why but looking at some posts and the response to them in the other thread I'm reminded of a painting by Leonardo DaVinci.

Or the 'legendary' Van Gogh. Can no-one see that his paintings are actually rubbish....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS 00Z looks good, even a possible 'cold' spell, if that high can centre over us on Tues 2nd after the cold air from NW moves in, 18Z had drizzly, average temps in South, 00Z looks better as high is slightly further south

[mushymanrob]

Or the 'legendary' Van Gogh. Can no-one see that his paintings are actually rubbish....

 

or a picaso, a well presented jumble of nonsense.

[DAVID SNOW]

What the heck!!! Now this just isn't fair! Some of us are sat here in the UK patiently waiting for our first snow of the winter and that totally reliable model, the GFS,     is showing snow for Morocco on the 6th Dec!!

 

How can Morocco have snow before us??!!  GFS gfs-2-228 06Nov14 marked.jpg

 

Not unusual to see  snow forecast for the Atlas Mountains in December,  even from the GFS

[TonyH]

or a picaso, a well presented jumble of nonsense.

Its all about perception though surely Mushy

Not unusual to see  snow forecast for the Atlas Mountains in December,  even from the GFS

Yes how many thousands of metres high are they?

[DAVID SNOW]

Its all about perception though surely Mushy

Yes how many thousands of metres high are they?

Up to about 15,000ft I think.