Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[SE Blizzards]

To all cold/snow weather fans,

 

MERRY CHRISTMAS

 

 

Love from...

 

The CFS.

Edited December 1, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[Frosty.]

Well guys it's winter now..yipeee and the cfs is perfik as pop Larkin would say..night gang :- )

[SnowObsessor90]

To be honest the current output as is as bad as I've seen, perhaps that trip to Lapland I was thinking about isn't completely out of the question.

[Captain Shortwave]

 

The slider low modelled over a week ago to enter the Med in now in place. The flow over the SE Uk has backed to the NE. It is still mild at present but upwind over the near continent snow grains are starting to be reported with temperature close to zero. This colder air although likely to be somewhat modified by its passage across the southern N sea and also by turbulent mixing with warmer layers above is still likely to be alot colder than anything experienced so far this autumn.

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

 

 

Copied from the model discussion thread as my reply felt more like ranting than anything useful

Not very much to celebrate, this flow will struggle to even come in below average (6-9C predicted all week).Grey skies a drizzle I don't think is satisfactory to anyone. 

Edited December 1, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[snowblizzard]

How can so much positivity about the favourable NH pattern (for cold lovers) a few days ago turn into so much negativity now?

[mushymanrob]

How can so much positivity about the favourable NH pattern (for cold lovers) a few days ago turn into so much negativity now?

 

because people get their hopes up when something vaguely resembling what they would like to see is hinted at in fi... as ever, fi is fi and doesnt always varify, its not always the start of a new pattern emerging. we have already had promises or expectations dashed because too much hope was mixed in the predictions, the early northern blocking early last month for one. the more recent eastern blocking which followed on and sometimes threatened easterlies.

we have just had a remarkably mild end to november when some fi predictions had a significant pattern change to cold weeks ago. what we are looking at in reality is pretty normal, average, december weather .

[TwisterGirl81]

I'm sorry but is anyone else bored already of these grey boring chilly days, i'd rather have last years winter back if this is how the rest of the winter will be, when true cold and snow (for all) is only reserved for the typical north and mountains.

 

Before anyone says that storms can kill, so can the blizzards, ice and snow you hope for as well.

 

Still it's only the beginning of the winter but snow and southwest england don't go together unless you live on the moors, it's just always not cold enough by like a couple degrees.

 

Fingers crossed we get some storms and snow this year

[MPG]

I think its funny how December has already been written off for cold by many here including the experts. But that's ok......'we' were never expecting any cold shot until early Jan or the very end of December so we shouldn't be expecting anything to show on the models yet (and that hinges on the strat?!!!)

 

That writes off 1 full month, I don't count March, because the sun is warmer and low level lying snow can easily disappear. So if you believe what most people are saying, we only have 8 weeks of winter left! Starting Jan 1st.

Edited December 1, 2014 by MPG

[Ali1977]

Zonel train for next week isn't great, hopefully it resets the weather clock and give us chance of something later in Dec rather than clinging on to hope day after day. This is the time when coldies need to take a break from model watching as I think it could be painful viewing for a few weeks. Even the express isn't forecasting a big freeze so must be bad. 

[mushymanrob]

I think its funny how December has already been written off for cold by many here including the experts. But that's ok......'we' were never expecting any cold shot until early Jan or the very end of December so we shouldn't be expecting anything to show on the models yet (and that hinges on the strat?!!!)

 

That writes off 1 full month, I don't count March, because the sun is warmer and low level lying snow can easily disappear. So if you believe what most people are saying, we only have 8 weeks of winter left! Starting Jan 1st.

 

ive not seen any 'expert' write off the whole of december, just that theres no sign of deep cold in the next 10 days or so. the data could well tell us something very different within a few days, and theres no reason why there shouldnt be a cold spell this month.

on the other hand theres nothing to say that we wont get another winter without deep cold. the facts are that no one knows what we will be getting in two weeks, and by then something might be on the cards.

if theres no sign of something cold by late jan, then id suggest time would be short for something cold to evolve and would be unlikely to happen.... but even that was proven wrong in 2013!

[Shunter]

because people get their hopes up when something vaguely resembling what they would like to see is hinted at in fi... as ever, fi is fi and doesnt always varify, its not always the start of a new pattern emerging. we have already had promises or expectations dashed because too much hope was mixed in the predictions, the early northern blocking early last month for one. the more recent eastern blocking which followed on and sometimes threatened easterlies.

we have just had a remarkably mild end to november when some fi predictions had a significant pattern change to cold weeks ago. what we are looking at in reality is pretty normal, average, december weather .

 

Exactly my sentiment too,  so despite the optimism of OPI, SAI , +PNA, -AO and a potential early season SSW we end up with.........BAU ! 

Looks like the experts may have to rewrite some of the composites, cos mother nature dont follow song sheets.   

[mushymanrob]

lovin this gloom! it can stay like this until mid february for me!

ironically for the first day of winter...i have primroses starting to flower...

[MPG]

ive not seen any 'expert' write off the whole of december, just that theres no sign of deep cold in the next 10 days or so. the data could well tell us something very different within a few days, and theres no reason why there shouldnt be a cold spell this month.

on the other hand theres nothing to say that we wont get another winter without deep cold. the facts are that no one knows what we will be getting in two weeks, and by then something might be on the cards.

if theres no sign of something cold by late jan, then id suggest time would be short for something cold to evolve and would be unlikely to happen.... but even that was proven wrong in 2013!

 

 

Exactly my sentiment too,  so despite the optimism of OPI, SAI , +PNA, -AO and a potential early season SSW we end up with.........BAU ! 

Looks like the experts may have to rewrite some of the composites, cos mother nature dont follow song sheets.   

Great comments.

 

This winter is very interesting with regards to LRF's and other data. As you say Shunter, the OPI, SAI etc are pushing for cold, the LRF's are going for above average, especially the METO. Will be very interesting come March, and will make next years predicted winter a potential nightmare to forecast.

Edited December 1, 2014 by MPG

[alexisj9]

Been following the models and I think they are giving good hints for later in the year, however I think it's freezing right now down here in Kent, Brrrrr.

[knocker]

Well the latest METO 16-30 day makes cozy reading

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75951-met-office-16-to-30-day-outlook/page-38#entry3078619

Edited December 1, 2014 by knocker

[MPG]

Well the latest METO 16-30 day makes cozy reading

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75951-met-office-16-to-30-day-outlook/page-38#entry3078619

Sounds good (from what I can figure out) for the south west, not too much in the way of rain.

[Froze were the Days]

Dire miserable dull dreary drizzly weather here for the next week - yuk! at least for the moment it is relatively dry underfoot compared to the complete rot of last month - past that looks fairly zonal so I suppose that's almost the first 1/6th of winter written off already?

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

It certainly doesn't look as optimistic as a few days ago with signs of more bartlett type patterns emerging on the GFS which can be hard to shift! Now that the SSW may not occur has dealt a hammer blow to hopes for a snowy January!

[jtay]

Dire miserable dull dreary drizzly weather here for the next week - yuk! at least for the moment it is relatively dry underfoot compared to the complete rot of last month - past that looks fairly zonal so I suppose that's almost the first 1/6th of winter written off already?

 

Yep, so that leaves the final 5/6ths with all to play for.

[Summer Sun]

It certainly doesn't look as optimistic as a few days ago with signs of more bartlett type patterns emerging on the GFS which can be hard to shift! Now that the SSW may not occur has dealt a hammer blow to hopes for a snowy January!

 

Sorry but with 4 weeks and 3 days till January anything can happen, changes can happen when least expected at times no one knows for certain what the second half of this month will bring....

Edited December 1, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Mokidugway]

Think I'll wait till end of February before writing of winter ,any thing can happen yet ....

Edited December 1, 2014 by Mokidugway

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

The silence on the Model thread says it all, not much enthusiasm over the GFS 12Z run!

[SnowObsessor90]

Can't help but wonder whether there's perhaps been any unexpected developments hence the current output with a seemingly unwavering Polar Vortex, that said it's still very early days. 

Edited December 1, 2014 by SnowObsessor90

[Milhouse]

Models look like delivering some pretty bog standard stuff for the time of year. As far a cold is concerned, a couple of feeble northwesterlies is your lot.

[Hocus Pocus]

Models look like delivering some pretty bog standard stuff for the time of year. As far a cold is concerned, a couple of feeble northwesterlies is your lot.

Compared to last year it's winter nirvana.