Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Hocus Pocus]

 the current models dont show anything other then normal late autumn/early winter type weather, unless you trawl through fi charts for an odd favoured one. i really dont see the need to conjur up fantasy evolutions, its a waste of time surely, as recent events surrounding the early northern blocking has proven. concentrate on the reliable and you wont be so disappointed.

Agree, but we have had post daily showing the Atlantic barrelling in out in FI. Some nice frosty dry weather in the reliable just what I was hoping for as head into December.

[MP-R]

Despite nothing impressive being shown in the models, I'm quite liking the look of a strong UK high moving slowly northeastwards through next week, as shown by both the GFS and ECM. Chilly/cold by day and frosty by night with sunshine and/or fog would do nicely.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Despite nothing impressive being shown in the models, I'm quite liking the look of a strong UK high moving slowly northeastwards through next week, as shown by both the GFS and ECM. Chilly/cold by day and frosty by night with sunshine and/or fog would do nicely.

 

looks that way, although GFS does not give it that cold, min 2C, max around 8C, suggesting maybe that it's cloudy high

[MP-R]

looks that way, although GFS does not give it that cold, min 2C, max around 8C, suggesting maybe that it's cloudy high

 

There is always that risk, depending on how much or not clear air gets in from the northwest ahead of the high. Provided the high stays over the UK or moves slightly northeastwards rather than south, clearing skies should hopefully be a feature. What we don't want is a sinking of the high to the south of the UK with, as you point out, rather mundane temperatures, not far off the seasonal average.

[Barry12]

Got a feeling the best ECM run of the season for cold is coming out!

 

[alex12]

Got a feeling the best ECM run of the season for cold is coming out!

 

I'll hold you to that! We will soon find out with it rolling out now!

[Captain Shortwave]

Getting this easterly is going to require an absolute shed-load of these

 

And if it fails a even bigger shed-load of these

Edited November 25, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Polar Maritime]

I think it's a 5 leaf one for a real Easterly.. 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Got a feeling the best ECM run of the season for cold is coming out!

 

 

You might be right, but of course won't happen, like the 12Z of Wed 5th Dec '12

[Captain Shortwave]

I will just save this one for the "beast from the east"

21 leaf clover 

Edited November 25, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[I remember Atlantic 252]

like this ECM run, looks like a very chilly start to Dec, hopefully be clear/frosty, ultimate hope would be rime/frost, I do not want to see the high drift say  100 miles north, as that would bring drizzly skies to the south, and average temps day and night

[Barry12]

The ECM was disappointing, I did have high hopes. But it's not a bad start to dec

[I remember Atlantic 252]

The ECM was disappointing, I did have high hopes. But it's not a bad start to dec

 

mainly dry though, so i would say a great start to dec, would normally expect Dec to be wet all the way through with very little respite

Edited November 25, 2014 by IrememberAtlantic252

[Mark Neal.]

mainly dry though, so i would say a great start to dec, would normally expect Dec to be wet all the way through with very little respite

Yes though the very start of last December we saw a area of high pressure (rare at the time) sandwhiched between 2 very zonal unsettled spells of atlantic driven weather. Thats how winter proper should start i feel, drier with fog and frosts and some winter sunshine, slowly getting colder.. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes though the very start of last December we saw a area of high pressure (rare at the time) sandwhiched between 2 very zonal unsettled spells of atlantic driven weather. Thats how winter proper should start i feel, drier with fog and frosts and some winter sunshine, slowly getting colder.. 

 

Yeah, thats why I think the models look good, not even thinking about snow, like fantasy it snowing, cold and dry is hard enough to get, without the Atlantic train

[Timmytour]

Much of the model watching this month has been like suffering from trapped wind.  One gets the impression now however that the milk of magnesia has been taken and we're soon going to find out through which orifice the wind escapes......   

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18Z positions high much further south, I expect the models to slowly go to this idea, meaning becoming drizzly with average temps, westerly winds for the UK, at least for first week of Dec

[Snowman.]

18Z positions high much further south, I expect the models to slowly go to this idea, meaning becoming drizzly with average temps, westerly winds for the UK, at least for first week of Dec

 

Yeah but 18z...

[alex12]

Yeah but 18z...

is it not good?

[Snowman.]

is it not good?

 

Often mocked as the pub run.

 

I don't ignore it but I rate other models and different GFS runs over the 18z like 0z and 12z GFS runs.

[Mark Neal.]

Often mocked as the pub run.

 

I don't ignore it but I rate other models and different GFS runs over the 18z like 0z and 12z GFS runs.

Generally over progressive. But from time to time can come up with stellar runs, like last night!!

[A.J]

Often mocked as the pub run.

 

I don't ignore it but I rate other models and different GFS runs over the 18z like 0z and 12z GFS runs.

until it shows bitterly cold easterlies when it then becomes the model run of choice for most...lol

Edited November 25, 2014 by ajpoolshark

[BlueHedgehog074]

He he he he hee...   

Edited November 25, 2014 by DiagonalRedLine

[Mark Neal.]

He he he he hee...   

Cold potential charts leaves u like...

[BlueHedgehog074]

Indeed. As much as I try not to pay too much attention to dreamland charts like this (especially with the way these deep FI charts can clearly change loads from run to run), they can really have that affect on you (lol). Still nice to see, though, when it happens.

 

Does look like for now there's a continued chance for the UK to become influenced by some kind of Mid Latitude Block next week with the Azores High building towards the UK. Should it manage to go far enough North-East and become a new block to our East/North-East, then it could certainly introduce some very chilly conditions with that risk of frost and fog at times. Particularly at night.