Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[knocker]

why whats happened?

 

My understanding is a low pressure area is forecast to be centred over La Coruna dragging very warm air up from south giving record temps for December at East Grinstead.

[mushymanrob]

why whats happened?

Nothing has. People are guessing it might get colder and its one possibility, but not one serious forecaster is foretelling a cold spell, thats just hopecasting.

[hec1]

we cant even get a decent storm nevermind snow, lol

[festivalking]

Don't understand how we are supposed to get excited at 360 charts when they show a sleet shower but dimiss mild charts at the same time piece as if won't happen.

Charts and posters are in it for the big tease.

I know I know at that range we are looking at trends but still it's a tad frustrating....as is this traffic jam I'm in

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Don't trust ECM FI! 850's bit pants anyway, GFS is more likely correct here with milder, flatter westerly pattern

[SE Blizzards]

Don't trust ECM FI! 850's bit pants anyway, GFS is more likely correct here with milder, flatter westerly pattern

 

Hi IRA.

 

So are you saying the ECM 12Z, along with the Navgem 12Z, GEM 12Z and UKMO 12Z (which all show some sort amplification in the Atlantic later next week) are all wrong?

 

And why do you favour the GFS's more flatter westerly pattern?

Some thought's on why you think this way would be beneficial, especially for newbies.

Edited November 28, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Hi IRA.

 

So are you saying the ECM 12Z, along with the Navgem 12Z, GEM 12Z and UKMO 12Z (which all show some sort amplification in the Atlantic later next week) are all wrong?

 

And why do you favour the GFS's more flatter westerly pattern?

Some thought's on why you think this way would be beneficial, especially for newbies.

 

Think we all know why? ECM tends to over amplify patterns, GFS seems better at handling the Atlantic, and westerlies are what to expect in Dec!

 

think we will see ECM trending towards GFS tomorrow, and also ECM ENS just been posted in model thread, and seem to match GEFS

[SE Blizzards]

Think we all know why? ECM tends to over amplify patterns, GFS seems better at handling the Atlantic, and westerlies are what to expect in Dec!

 

think we will see ECM trending towards GFS tomorrow, and also ECM ENS just been posted in model thread, and seem to match GEFS

 

But it's not just the ECM that is amplifying the pattern, is it? Or am i reading the charts wrong?

 

You didn't answer the question...

Are all the other models wrong then in showing signs of amplification in the Atlantic? I presume with what you said you think they are?

 

The truth is NO-ONE knows for sure what will happen later next week. Models are fickle things when it comes to predicting T144 and beyond! At the end of the day the weather will do what the weather will do.

And to say Westerlies are to be expected in Dec is daft in my opinion. I won't argue that they are 'more likely', but there has been many times in the past when westerlies have not dominated in December. Just look what happened in 2010! The weather has a habit of 'not sticking to the rules'.

 

Sometimes i really do wish i had a crystal ball, just like other folk seem to have.

 

Edit: Also it looks like NCEP have dumped today's GFS according to Nick S on the MOD thread. Hmm, interesting...

Edited November 28, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[knocker]

The faithful Trigger - I always think of Roy Roger's horse.

[blizzard81]

Love the fact that the UKMO prefer the normally disregarded GFS one of the few times that we would prefer them not to....LOL

You couldn't make it up Chio. No wonder people call the Meto mild rampers!

[SLEETY]

Didn't know where else I could put this, but Jamstec's November update isn't very encouraging. 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2015.1nov2014.gif

 

and who are they exactly,you cant forecast ahead like that impossible,make your own guess for next 3 months see whos more acuurate lol

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM 00Z more realistic, definitely trended towards GFS, 00Z flat as a pancake, expect other models to follow, its early Dec for god's sake, westerlies dominate

[Ali1977]

Spare a thought for all the businesses in the Alps, this pattern does not help them one bit. Only the highest resorts looking half decent for early start to the season. They will be praying for a change in weather pattern before mid dec.

[The Post-modern Winter]

ECM 00Z more realistic, definitely trended towards GFS, 00Z flat as a pancake, expect other models to follow, its early Dec for god's sake, westerlies dominate

'Westerlies' and the Atlantic dominate in December? Really? I don't think you've ever mentioned this before IRA252 . .

[bobbydog]

Thankfully, its only the 06z GFS op.

Otherwise i could see the dreaded "B" word being thrown about....

[Timmytour]

Thankfully, its only the 06z GFS op.

Otherwise i could see the dreaded "B" word being thrown about....

Is it totally inconceiveable that, for all the talk of a weak PV this winter and the potential for cold, that's the way we end up going?

I can imagine that, in late November 1997, much would have been made of a chart like below to ramp up the chances of a cold winter...

However the winter of 1997/98 is definitely one I would NOT like to go through again

[bobbydog]

Is it totally inconceiveable that, for all the talk of a weak PV this winter and the potential for cold, that's the way we end up going?I can imagine that, in late November 1997, much would have been made of a chart like below to ramp up the chances of a cold winter...However the winter of 1997/98 is definitely one I would NOT like to go through again

I'm really hoping someone comes in to explain why it is totally inconcievable...

[Tom Montalbano]

Is it totally inconceiveable that, for all the talk of a weak PV this winter and the potential for cold, that's the way we end up going?

I can imagine that, in late November 1997, much would have been made of a chart like below to ramp up the chances of a cold winter...

However the winter of 1997/98 is definitely one I would NOT like to go through again

 

 

Hi Timmytour,

 

I'm sure if you flick through the archives there are plenty of examples of seemingly poor looking Atlantic/European synoptic profiles, a few weeks before the start of Winter proper that actually developed into a reasonably cold/wintry season, from a cold weather lovers standpoint, the reverse is also true of course. But as we all know many more factors have to be taken into account, in trying to visualise prospects for those Winter months.

 

Surely the chart below was about to develop into an Atlantic driven, zonal pattern for the coming Winter!

 

 

 

 

Regards,

Tom.

Edited November 29, 2014 by TomBR7

[TonyH]

Each time I dip with trepidation into the MO thread at this time of year I cant help but get the message that cold and snow are are the way!

However this is tempered by a decade of realisation that the posters are biased towards the more Wintry solutions

'Westerlies' and the Atlantic dominate in December? Really? I don't think you've ever mentioned this before IRA252 . .

Almost as often as the washout Monday!

[Duane S.]

Is it totally inconceiveable that, for all the talk of a weak PV this winter and the potential for cold, that's the way we end up going?I can imagine that, in late November 1997, much would have been made of a chart like below to ramp up the chances of a cold winter...However the winter of 1997/98 is definitely one I would NOT like to go through again

Nothing can be ruled out of course and December 97 in fact matched the pattern (in general) I highlighted yesterday that we may see emerge later in December. I.e. The Azores high ridging NE to merge with the eastern block, then retrogression NW in Greenland.

However, as you point out, it came to little in the grand scheme of things that time around and was flattened out shortly afterwards. I would have to say that that was a winter that we only needed to roll a 9 or above to have had some good cold spells but ended up rolling a double 1! Without looking further into the state of the Stratosphere that year the one big difference in our favour is that 97/98 was a W-QBO. So yes we could end up rolling another double 1 but the dice are a little bit more weighted in our favour this time around following the OPI and SAI then wave activity and warmings keeping the vortex under check in its crucial maturity period and us sat in a strongly easterly QBO.

Plus Lorenzo's excellent post earlier points out the MJO which could be very interesting in terms of timing going into phase 6 and beyond.

[Timmytour]

Hi Timmytour,

 

I'm sure if you flick through the archives there are plenty of examples of seemingly poor looking Atlantic/European synoptic profiles, a few weeks before the start of Winter proper that actually developed into a reasonably cold/wintry season, from a cold weather lovers standpoint, the reverse is also true of course. But as we all know many more factors have to be taken into account, in trying to visualise prospects for those Winter months.

 

Surely the chart below was about to develop into an Atlantic driven, zonal pattern for the coming Winter!

 

 

 

 

Regards,

Tom.

Cheers Tom....I find myself always optimistically looking at the way January 1947 panned out in times when optimism and potential for cold seem low so I definitely am one always living in hope!!

Thanks as well S4...my thoughts too, we still need a better than 7 roll of the dice......and I think we are just as likely to throw above seven as we are below it......gingers are as tightly crossed as they have always been

[SE Blizzards]

ECM 00Z more realistic, definitely trended towards GFS, 00Z flat as a pancake, expect other models to follow, its early Dec for god's sake, westerlies dominate

 

Well, let's hope the ECM 0Z is more realistic....

 

 

You Certainly won't get any complaints from me if that chart verified.

 

I know you have a love affair with the GFS, but may i ask why? It is often down in 3rd place in the verification stats. Actually, come to think of it, i'm trying to remember the last time i seen the GFS in 1st place? It may of happened recently (or has it), but it definitely doesn't happen often that's for sure.

 

By the way, have you heard that the GFS op is getting binned soon? ...I wonder why?

Edited November 29, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[blizzard81]

Its just great watching the weather unfold presently in Europe. Sub fridged surface air crossing into East Germany from Poland and even the Hook of Holland only a few degress above freezing.Sub tropical air mass still in much of France and into southern England now. So quite a contrast presently. Will be quite a shock for those in the SE on Monday as they pick up a much colder surface flow. A strong to moderately baroclinic sub tropical jet lay to the S and E of the Med low now forming will help to maintain its influence into the middle of next week with a associated trough probabale to the north of the Alps .C

I agree Carinthian. I think some people are so preoccupied with events days or weeks away that they do not even notice what is happening under their very noses.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

06Z is better mind you, a lot of high pressure, I won't be complaining if that comes off, looks like being quite cold around Tues/wed, before turning milder/drizzly from the east for a time, before high pressure dominates again, Tony lol! no washouts on this run thank heavens!

 

snowless run but miles better than our usual Zonal crap!

Edited November 29, 2014 by IrememberAtlantic252

[Captain Shortwave]

I agree Carinthian. I think some people are so preoccupied with events days or weeks away that they do not even notice what is happening under their very noses.

A high of 7/8C forecast here so for those in the firing line it isn't much to celebrate about. Add to that lead grey skies and drizzle then it feels just like the usual north sea cack for down here.

As for today, lovely and sunny and mild enough to just wear light clothing. 

Edited November 29, 2014 by Captain shortwave