Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Frank Trough]

I am 38 and still get just as excited with the prospects of snow as i did when i was a kid. I shall still feel the same way when i am knocking on heavens door to. maybe you have just become more miserable with age.

 

I'm 38 as well and snow still excites me. A cold frosty high pressure would be nice too but I can't really remember one of those recently? There must have been one? maybe winter 2012/13? What I can't subscribe to though is the "anything as long as it's fractionally below average" philosophy. Which is why the model outputs at present - showing the odd cold north-westerly shot don't cut it for me.  

 

I think the word "wintry" is being overused at present (for the vast majority of England anyway). It looks more "cold autumn" than winter to me. Winter comes from the east!

[knocker]

Have been out all morning as already mentioned so just taken a quick peek in MOD thread. Noted the mounting hysteria so quickly decided it was time for a double espresso.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Well I could put Victor Meldrew in the shade but the memory of 62-3 is still vivid so you can stick your snow and ice. Not forgetting I could also do without the big heating bills.

 

Anyway I've just been for a stroll around the local country park on a crisp sunny morning. What could be better?

Sod the heating bills let's have another 62-63 :-)

[mountain shadow]

I'm 38 as well and snow still excites me. A cold frosty high pressure would be nice too but I can't really remember one of those recently? There must have been one? maybe winter 2012/13? What I can't subscribe to though is the "anything as long as it's fractionally below average" philosophy. Which is why the model outputs at present - showing the odd cold north-westerly shot don't cut it for me.  

 

I think the word "wintry" is being overused at present (for the vast majority of England anyway). It looks more "cold autumn" than winter to me. Winter comes from the east!

Well, I suppose it depends in what part of these islands you live.

 

With a modelled persistant North Westerly wind for at least 9/10 days with entrenched polar air at times and severe gales, it will not feel like Autumn in this neck of the woods.

 

For me, Winter is best from the North.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Well, I suppose it depends in what part of these islands you live.

With a modelled persistant North Westerly wind for at least 9/10 days with entrenched polar air at times and severe gales, it will not feel like Autumn in this neck of the woods.

For me, Winter is best from the North.

+1 Mountain Shadow, not all of us look east some of us are quite happy with stirrings from the North what ever the direction

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Why do people bother posting random charts to create a little bit of attention for themselves??? LOL

And it's fully grown adults that do it!! - utterly unbelievable LOL

[Mapantz]

Doesn't them 2 charts equate to 2 mild days out of the next 10?I thought that from looking at all the latest model runs from the past 2 days is that generally temps were going to be cool to cold countrywide with the VERY ODD mild day here and there as LP's pass through.

  

Love this

'The end of the run' lol

When does the end of any run ever materialise

Clutching at straws the knocker

I think you've probably both missed the point in knockers post.

I sense a hint of sarcasm from him in reply to a post using the frequently overused sentence at the moment; "If you're looking for mild, you'll be disappointed"

Just like the reverse, "If you're looking for cold...." it is very baiting to put that in a post but knocker humours it nicely without being off-topic.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I think you've probably both missed the point in knockers post.

I sense a hint of sarcasm from him in reply to a post using the frequently overused sentence at the moment; "If you're looking for mild, you'll be disappointed"

Just like the reverse, "If you're looking for cold...." it is very baiting to put that in a post but knocker humours it nicely without being off-topic.

Hilarious, the man should be on stage.

[knocker]

  

I think you've probably both missed the point in knockers post.

I sense a hint of sarcasm from him in reply to a post using the frequently overused sentence at the moment; "If you're looking for mild, you'll be disappointed"

Just like the reverse, "If you're looking for cold...." it is very baiting to put that in a post but knocker humours it nicely without being off-topic.

 

Spot on Mapantz. Notice how they swoop like St Ives's seagulls

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I just can't see any major changes in the pattern in mid-December with ridging over NE Canada forecast. Too many other over-riding factors like anomalously high SSTs in the Atlantic are in-play scuppering any chances of the Azores high retrogressing towards Greenland.

Edited December 3, 2014 by prolongedSnowLover

[marksiwnc]

I just can't see any major changes in the pattern in mid-December with ridging over NE Canada forecast. Too many other over-riding factors like anomalously high SSTs in the Atlantic are in-play scuppering any chances of the Azores high retrogressing towards Greenland.

I thought the Models.were playing with the idea of heights in ne Canada extending into Greenland and the nw Atlantic???

[mushymanrob]

  

I think you've probably both missed the point in knockers post.

I sense a hint of sarcasm from him in reply to a post using the frequently overused sentence at the moment; "If you're looking for mild, you'll be disappointed"

Just like the reverse, "If you're looking for cold...." it is very baiting to put that in a post but knocker humours it nicely without being off-topic.

 

lol.. exactly!

weve heard 'at least it wont be mild' said many times over the last month...and just enjoyed one of the mildest late november weekends on record! ok, theres not much prospect for anything sustainably mild... so what! its december! personally i think we need some cold, but not this half hearted mess the models suggest might effect us over the next week or so. but theres no sign of anything particually cold, its all looking pretty average/normal to me. an increasingly mobile westerly/northwesterly regime with mild and cooler days, wet n windy at times.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I fear we are developing similar setup to last Dec, russian high edging closer, troughs cannot get that far east, GFS is typical Dec like whole way through

 

any dry days from Dec 8th a bonus (south)

[sunnijim]

I fear we are developing similar setup to last Dec, russian high edging closer, troughs cannot get that far east, GFS is typical Dec like whole way through

 

any dry days from Dec 8th a bonus (south)

Last years zonal meltdown kicked in around the 11th-12th December and as we know just did not stop.We in fact had a High over Europe feeding in mild South winds then chilly SE winds for the first days in December and largely dry over England,fog and frost in evidence before the Atlantic won out.

I usually just enjoy reading this thread,but feel obliged to comment on two points,the first being the super analysis here on what is expected of winter,keep it up.

The second is the amount of 'its nothing like last winter' posts,the danger being December's first half looks like playing out in a very simuler way to last year should the models be believed for next week.

Just hope the NW winter forecast has called it,as they go for wild and wet before the 'cold heart' kicks in.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Last years zonal meltdown kicked in around the 11th-12th December and as we know just did not stop.We in fact had a High over Europe feeding in mild South winds then chilly SE winds for the first days in December and largely dry over England,fog and frost in evidence before the Atlantic won out.

I usually just enjoy reading this thread,but feel obliged to comment on two points,the first being the super analysis here on what is expected of winter,keep it up.

The second is the amount of 'its nothing like last winter' posts,the danger being December's first half looks like playing out in a very simuler way to last year should the models be believed for next week.

Just hope the NW winter forecast has called it,as they go for wild and wet before the 'cold heart' kicks in.

 

Ay, I don't care where the PV is, or state of MJO  etc, the reality/result is wet and windy for us in the UK on the edge of the gulf stream, our Atlantic island

[swfc]

Ay, I don't care where the PV is, or state of MJO  etc, the reality/result is wet and windy for us in the UK on the edge of the gulf stream, our Atlantic island

Id kind of agree tbh.I find all the other threads regarding the ssw,qbo,mjo and pv distruption facinating .My only doubt over these forecasts/predictions  ete are really out in fi!!Nothing is cast in stone at any time so i guess its a case of suck and see imo

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Id kind of agree tbh.I find all the other threads regarding the ssw,qbo,mjo and pv distruption facinating .My only doubt over these forecasts/predictions  ete are really out in fi!!Nothing is cast in stone at any time so i guess its a case of suck and see imo

 

and from about last Dec, we seemed to be due a SSW, members were wrongly optimistic about cold, a lot of members on here underestimate the power of Jet/Atlantic etc, so if the SSW  happened or not, some members never saw a flake of snow!

 

remember the Atlantic rules our weather

[Barry12]

  Just like the reverse, "If you're looking for cold...." it is very baiting to put that in a post but knocker humours it nicely without being off-topic.

 

Looking at the models it looks like it will be below average on many days, so I'd be surprised if someone said that.

[stainesbloke]

Last years zonal meltdown kicked in around the 11th-12th December and as we know just did not stop.We in fact had a High over Europe feeding in mild South winds then chilly SE winds for the first days in December and largely dry over England,fog and frost in evidence before the Atlantic won out.

I usually just enjoy reading this thread,but feel obliged to comment on two points,the first being the super analysis here on what is expected of winter,keep it up.

The second is the amount of 'its nothing like last winter' posts,the danger being December's first half looks like playing out in a very simuler way to last year should the models be believed for next week.

Just hope the NW winter forecast has called it,as they go for wild and wet before the 'cold heart' kicks in.

Agree. To my amateur eyes, the charts have a very similar look to the vile ones of December last year. There is a lot of quality analysis going on on this site and I enjoy reading the many informative posts.

What I'd really enjoy though would be a nice sunny-by-day, frost and fog by night high sat slap bang over the UK for a few weeks!

[knocker]

The swear filter is positively screaming for 'last year' to be added. And just to add that it doesn't appear to be foolproof, buildings blocks slipped through recently.

[492]

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

Well this is the easterly that was forecast about 2 weeks ago but how pathetic. Although is it sub zero over the near continent and has been for a couple of days now the lower temperatures cannot seem to make it across the southern North sea without being very much inflated presumably by the unusually warm sea. I suppose one more day with an easterly component might cool things down a bit more before the Atlantic rolls in and we get the same sort of temperatures but with a westerly instead of an easterly. 

[Mark Neal.]

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

Well this is the easterly that was forecast about 2 weeks ago but how pathetic. Although is it sub zero over the near continent and has been for a couple of days now the lower temperatures cannot seem to make it across the southern North sea without being very much inflated presumably by the unusually warm sea. I suppose one more day with an easterly component might cool things down a bit more before the Atlantic rolls in and we get the same sort of temperatures but with a westerly instead of an easterly.

That down to generally the mild conditions we have experienced so far this Autumn and along with much of Western Europe. Lack of cold pool to our east. So that's why the easterly is not fun for Cold/Snow lovers. Edited December 3, 2014 by Mark N

[SnowObsessor90]

From what I can see if there is going to be any sort of "change" then it's going to be of milder variety rather than other way around, hope not as a repeat of Christmas 2011 certainly would not be welcome not to mention to the knock on effect it'll most probably have for the best part of January if we get to that stage.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

certainly think Dec is going to be dominated by the Atlantic, wind and rain all the way through from the 5th

[Paul_1978]

Time for a moan - yet again we've got people revelling in zonal charts at day 16 / 384 hours. I don't know why they bother other than for a wind up. Another poster on the blocked list.