Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Barry12]

I'm afraid I will have to differ as to the best of my knowledge the word mild hasn't featured in my posts. For example my posts tonight spoke of below average, some brief quite severe cold and average temps. I'm not fond of the rather silly term 'mild', always reminds me of when it was 1/3 a pint. Promise me you'll buck up Barry.

 

You did say above average in your earlier posts (same thing!) The mild 1/3 thing must of been before my time.

[hec1]

who cares about snow, the most we will get is 5cm, bring on the hurricane force winds, more fun
(no fun for the southerners tho) lolololooool

Edited December 6, 2014 by hec1

[I remember Atlantic 252]

who cares about snow, the most we will get is 5cm, bring on the hurricane force winds, more fun

(no fun for the southerners tho) lolololooool

 

fun for me, you can keep that trash up there, as probably expected ECM and GFS way more flat on 00Z's, think models gradually will trend to a miles flatter pattern with milder westerlies and rain for the south, UKMO will backtrack on 12Z's

[joggs]

who cares about snow, the most we will get is 5cm, bring on the hurricane force winds, more fun

(no fun for the southerners tho) lolololooool

Boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo lol

[mushymanrob]

I always think of the line in the polar express 'BELIEVE'

 

dont believe anything until its 100% certain its going to happen. belief in anything less most often leads to misery, frustration and disappointment, especially when dealing with something that theres no real sign of.

interestingly, the noaa anomaly charts dont support the scandi low/atlantic ridge (azores/greenland link). so this possible northerly blast doesnt look like lasting.

[Essex winter]

Yes frosty, much more seasonal than the whole of last winter already.hoping for something from the north east just in time for the festive period.maybe this will be our year? Many twists & turns to come yet tho.EW

[knocker]

I must admit, looking at the extended time frame, I'm wondering whether it might be wise to get some sun block in case I venture out over Xmas.

[Steve C]

You did say above average in your earlier posts (same thing!) The mild 1/3 thing must of been before my time.

You've obviously not drunk much beer then...

[Polar Maritime]

I must admit, looking at the extended time frame, I'm wondering whether it might be wise to get some sun block in case I venture out over Xmas.

 

Yes Knock, The reflection off the snow can be damaging to the skin. Always be prepared !   

[knocker]

You did say above average in your earlier posts (same thing!) The mild 1/3 thing must of been before my time.

 

To say that above average temps equates to mild is plainly ridiculous even by the standards of the cold illiterati. I assume then in the future some sort of code will have to be found to indicate 'above average temps' in order to eradicate causing undue stress to the latter.

Yes Knock, The reflection off the snow can be damaging to the skin. Always be prepared !   

 

Why quite PM, but I was thinking of my pate.

[Laurence Hill]

I might have missed something, but have noticed that Steve Murr doesn't post very much on the Models forum recently. I do miss his posting, any idea whats happening?

[MP-R]

Despite the frustrating situation and waiting for building blocks to fall into place, we're doing pretty well out of it. Down here in the 'mild' south we've had three sub-zero minima out of the last six days and escaped with no rain (here anyway). Next week we see the Atlantic stepping up a notch but from the northwest with any mildness coming in brief warm sectors. One could say the we're getting the best out of a not-ideal situation. I think patience is key for proper cold and it wouldn't surprise me if it came from the north first.

Edited December 6, 2014 by MP-R

[TonyH]

^SM did post his forecast a few days ago and perhaps he is just not confident of a cold snowy outlook?

Edited December 6, 2014 by TonyH

[Laurence Hill]

^SM did post his forecast a few days ago and perhaps he is just not confident of a cold snowy outlook?

Yeah, saw that, but after each run of the models he normally has some comment to make.

[knocker]

Yeah, saw that, but after each run of the models he normally has some comment to make.

 

He may be waiting for the 'building blocks' to fall into place. Just a thought. But fear not, I'm sure MacArthur's famous quote will be applicable.

Edited December 6, 2014 by knocker

[DAVID SNOW]

 

He may be waiting for the 'building blocks' to fall into place. Just a thought. But fear not, I'm sure MacArthur's famous quote will be applicable.

 

But it took MacArthur more than two years Knocks!

[Peejayem]

Yeah, saw that, but after each run of the models he normally has some comment to make.

If there's no snow likely in the SE then he doesn't usually bother posting

[texel]

Indeed but when Ian f talks of nothing sustained through December does feel me with dread the models do reflect this to degree little worrying to say the least.

How many times have the professionals beet caught out. They are simply giving their opinions on a phenomenon that no one fully understands to this day.

chin up folks long way to go just yet.

by the way I'm a mildy!

[knocker]

Around the 288 mark, but the signal persists in some form all the way through to the end at +360.

 

Yes this is the predominant theme, but it's good to see some hints of the HP further west.

 

Either way, mild is not a word I'd use to describe the further outlook.

 

I should hope not otherwise you would be relegated to pariah's bench.

[Bristawl Si]

I'm just beginning to wonder if the Meto will have to update their slightly 'cautious' updates for next 7 days or so, more in favour of slightly below average temps and higher snow risk?

This week *may* prove to be a turning point for the UK Winter 14/15.

[Methuselah]

I feel your pain, BB. Even though the 18Z screams potential, it's never over until the fat lady sings. Indeed, should we see the required degree of burification and energy ejection (in the desired places, of course) we might even end up with a 1968 scenario. The rest, as the say, was history...

[Yarmy]

I feel your pain, BB. Even though the 18Z screams potential, it's never over until the fat lady sings. Indeed, should we see the required degree of burification and energy ejection (in the desired places, of course) we might even end up with a 1968 scenario. The rest, as the say, was history...

Burifi..what? :-)

Been crazily busy over the last week or so, but my brief sojourns to the models shows a quite seasonal outlook with a chance of some proper wintry stuff next weekend. Chillymageddon. Miraculous considering how warm the year has been overall.

[knocker]

Have to keep a beady eye on this as serious consideration may have to be given to starting a new thread entitled, "Have you turned your air conditioning on yet".

 

[Barry12]

In the reliable time frame it's cold and wintry, any 'mild' is well into FI. Seems pretty desperate to me. Fergy also confirmed there would be no mild in the 10-15 days time frame

[Weather-history]

Unfortunately no lessons are being learnt and it's the silly season again.

There are some quality posts in the model thread but unfortunately they are too often lost in the mass of dross. Too often I see posts by mods, admin etc saying "Some posts have been removed, edited etc, model discussion only etc"

I'm not sure why it's bad on this site, I post on UKWW and TWO there are no issues. The proof is the fact that there is a moaning, ramping model thread to try and counter it.

Not sure how many people are put off trying to read or post in the model thread, I know I am. I seldom visit or post in it now.

The mods/admin must be fed up trying to supervise that thread.