Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Yarmy]

Terrific discussion between OldMetMan and JH on the MOD thread this evening. Detailed arguments backed up with evidence and good old-fashioned instinct. The forum at its best.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Funny how you see an Azores High and tropical upper's this time of year and +168hrs and it's guaranteed to come off near exact, see a northerly/easterly and 5 shortwaves, euro highs, azores highs, the lot appear out of nowhere to ensure 7c and a spot of drizzle come the day  .

Meanwhile in August, every attempt at seeing high pressure push in downgraded to screaming Northerlies *sigh*.

 

Well we are in the UK!

[DAVID SNOW]

Terrific discussion between OldMetMan and JH on the MOD thread this evening. Detailed arguments backed up with evidence and good old-fashioned instinct. The forum at its best.

 

I think the 'argument' was between gut instinct V science.......Draw your own conclusions from that.......

[Yarmy]

I think the 'argument' was between gut instinct V science.......Draw your own conclusions from that.......

But that's meteorology, which is why the MetO look at the model output and then produce their own forecast. It's experience, instinct AND science.

[conor123]

Well we are in the UK!

Still ridiculous though, tomorrow night for example downgraded from snow potential to rain followed by wintry showers and frost to now a mild night and flat pattern following with -5 upper's just scraping by for a few hours Saturday morning, then pay for that with a week or two of Atlantic Azores mush  .

[DAVID SNOW]

But that's meteorology, which is why the MetO look at the model output and then produce their own forecast. It's experience, instinct AND science.

 

A blend indeed,i doubt they would say ALL the models look wrong for whatever reason...............

[ukpaul]

I think the 'argument' was between gut instinct V science.......Draw your own conclusions from that.......

 

Most people know that OMM is talking from years of experience, a powerful position to be able to make predictions from. The science also proves to often be as wrong as it is right, being very much inexact.

 

Pretty much a score draw, really,

[Snowman.]

Still ridiculous though, tomorrow night for example downgraded from snow potential to rain followed by wintry showers and frost to now a mild night and flat pattern following with -5 upper's just scraping by for a few hours Saturday morning, then pay for that with a week or two of Atlantic Azores mush  .

 

Never place trust in the models that far out when it comes to snow.

[robbo88]

Still Looking good for a little bit of snow for England on Friday....

Edited December 10, 2014 by robbo88

[Will Padz]

Hopefully our area will get something out of this....

[knocker]

Most people know that OMM is talking from years of experience, a powerful position to be able to make predictions from. The science also proves to often be as wrong as it is right, being very much inexact.

 

Pretty much a score draw, really,

 

But JH is also talking from years of experience as a senior forecaster thus he has the ideal combination of both experience and science. Seems to me an ideal combination.

Edited December 10, 2014 by knocker

[Mark Neal.]

GFS take on back edge snowfall. Thurs night into Fri Am. Before it clears away!

.

Euro4 model (12z run) less showing here.

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Will be interesting to the North to watch the cold air dig in and will there be precipitation still around by that time.

[TSNWK]

Tumble weed blowing in the model thread as the 18z roles out in the 2nd week of December.. Speaks volumes..

[ukpaul]

But JH is also talking from years of experience as a senior forecaster thus he has the ideal combination of both experience and science. Seems to me an ideal combination.

 

But both experience and science are no guarantee of success, in combination or separately, either. It is better to take equal note of each.

[ukpaul]

Tumble weed blowing in the model thread as the 18z roles out in the 2nd week of December.. Speaks volumes..

 

Thankfully those who can't help commenting on each update are keeping quiet, it really does make it very difficult to follow when a few persist in having a not particularly knowledgeable running commentary, I prefer it when people look at runs in toto and then comment.

 

EDIT: In fact both op and parallel look pretty interesting.

Edited December 10, 2014 by ukpaul

[The Bevmeister]

I have had to scrape my windscreen 4 times since winter started compared to twice for the whole of last winter. Therefore I can conclude, that this winter is 50% better than the last one.....!!!!!

[Fred Sykes]

I put my white pants in the washing machine with colours and they came out pink. I did exactly the same thing in 2010, and we all know how cold that winter was!

[Great Plum]

I have had to scrape my windscreen 4 times since winter started compared to twice for the whole of last winter. Therefore I can conclude, that this winter is 50% better than the last one.....!!!!!

100% better surely?

[The Bevmeister]

My maths are as good as my LRF's Plum....!!!!!!

Edited December 10, 2014 by The Bevmeister

[knocker]

Just happened to notice, en passant, that the GFS has above average temps for the UK and Europe next week.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

Just happened to notice, en passant, that the GFS has above average temps for the UK and Europe next week.

indeed but in all honesty briefly and subject to change with also the fact that milder and colder theme will continue as the models have not really settled on an outcome they also suggest more of the same for now.

 

but even so still lots and lots of interest if cold is your weather type.

[mushymanrob]

But JH is also talking from years of experience as a senior forecaster thus he has the ideal combination of both experience and science. Seems to me an ideal combination.

 

couldnt agree more...

ive seen hell of alot of posts suggesting "at least its better then last winter" .... i make it that theres 79 days left of this winter, and those 79 days could just as easily be record mild as cold... after all we are supposed to be warming up, and many of this years months have been above average temps.

ultimately we will get what we get, theres nowt we can do about it.

[Carl46Wrexham]

So far I am finding this winter much better than last winter, with a better balance some frosts some wintriness and some drier spells when last winter anything but.

 

The wind direction is also better coming from a North Westerly direction as opposed to South Westerly also ensuring better weather patterns.

You could of course look at it another way. It's cold, wet and windy instead of mild wet and windy. Like having to choose between warm dog crap and cold white dog crap. Neither hold any appeal. When it's pouring with rain and blowing a gale as it was last night, the first thought that springs to mind is not "oh well at least the wind is coming from a different direction". More likely to be "oh great here we go again, just like last year then"

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

The current buzzword unfortunately is 'transient' cold rather than 'persistent' cold especially after looking at this mornings models. Two major flies in the ointment are the low heights in Greenland and the Azores high which continue to bring a flat uninspiring Westerly pattern. Still haven't had a 'true' Northerly down South yet. Need a miracle, aka SSW.

[sundog]

Output for next week looks rather uninspiring to say the least. Not too surprised though tbh. I mean how many times does cold zonality lead onto something better? Rarely imo. Sooner rather then later the pattern just flattens out and things just get milder,the opposite of what cold lovers want to happen. Until we lose the low heights over greenland we will just have to be patient.