Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[bluearmy]

Well yes.............

I think he meant the forecast charts will showing colder by the end of the week knocker. btw, next weekend looks like another cold Saturday to me.

Anyone remember the seventies winter between Xmas and new year where two conclusions came south west around a developing scandi trough to introduce a very cold January?

[Shunter]

Well yes.............

I see the latest Meto 6-15 forecast and strangely there is no mention of Mild in fact temperatures are forecast a little below average (generally)for the period. Given their recent accuracy in MRF I would tend to take more notice of them than most of the other models

[MP-R]

What a revolting set of models. I think a weekend off looking at them starting now and a return on Monday to see if they show anything favouring cold. With such a disorganised PV surely it's just a matter of time.

[knocker]

One can almost see HP over Greenland and the Azores high slipping east by the end of the GFS 06z run bringing some quite high temps into the UK. Doesn't bear thinking about as it could start a run on certain pharmaceutical products.

[winterof79]

I think he meant the forecast charts will showing colder by the end of the week knocker. btw, next weekend looks like another cold Saturday to me.

Anyone remember the seventies winter between Xmas and new year where two conclusions came south west around a developing scandi trough to introduce a very cold January?

I remember this one for some reason??

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=25&month=12&year=1970&hour=0&map=0&mode=0

Maybe this was the one though

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1977/archives-1977-12-28-0-0.png  or maybe even this

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=28&month=12&year=1976&hour=0&map=0&mode=0  which also led to a cold Jan

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=13&month=1&year=1977&hour=0&map=0&mode=0 

Spoilt we were.

[Mapantz]

Sunday would be the day that things start to get really interesting though, with snow possible to lower levels in the south. We may not have to wait until the end of December to see widespread UK snow.

I see absolutely no sign of snow at lower levels in the south from those charts, let alone the north?

I wasn't taking Scotland in to account when i said the north, so apart from the reaches of Scotland I should say..

Edited December 13, 2014 by Mapantz

[Barry12]

I see absolutely no sign of snow at lower levels in the south from those charts, let alone the north?

 

That's strange considering the fact there was snow to lower levels Thursday night into Friday with -3/-4 uppers. There is -6/-7 uppers on that chart including in the south. Why would snow not be possible?

[Mapantz]

That's strange considering the fact there was snow to lower levels Thursday night into Friday with -3/-4 uppers. There is -6/-7 uppers on that chart including in the south. Why would snow not be possible?

You're just looking at 850's - you cannot do that alone.

That snow was forecasted in the north, not the south. It was down to a small battleground- a cold front separating the warm and cold air. I don't see that on the chart you've posted. A few wintry showers around the coasts in the far north, and maybe over the hills.

Saying snow to lower levels in the south is very misleading.

[IDO]

That's strange considering the fact there was snow to lower levels Thursday night into Friday with -3/-4 uppers. There is -6/-7 uppers on that chart including in the south. Why would snow not be possible?

 

 

Best to look at the 0c Isotherm and the height adjusted version helps. At the time you posted: 

 

So south of the Pennines you have to be at least above 500m above sea level for snow. Also that is a rather slack upper flow (850s) so no frontal precipitation:

 

 

Basically coastal showers.

Edited December 13, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Polar Maritime]

This is the precipitation chart for the 21st from the same synoptic's, Which will inevitably change between now and then, So pointless arguing over detail.. But the chart shows what it shows, As imdo explains re Northern Coastal regions.

 

Edited December 13, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Barry12]

You're just looking at 850's - you cannot do that alone.

That snow was forecasted in the north, not the south. It was down to a small battleground- a cold front separating the warm and cold air. I don't see that on the chart you've posted. A few wintry showers around the coasts in the far north, and maybe over the hills.

Saying snow to lower levels in the south is very misleading.

 

You're taking details at face value when they will change, predicting precipitation at that range is pointless. The point is snow is *possible* to lower levels in the south.

[Mapantz]

You're taking details at face value when they will change, predicting precipitation at that range is pointless. The point is snow is *possible* to lower levels in the south.

I'm talking details?? I'm not the one saying snow at lower levels in my posts.

If there was a front or trough to give precipitation, it was already explained to you that snow wouldn't fall at lower levels in the south.

Last winter we would see cold charts pushed back continuously, this winter it seems the opposite with any mild weather pushed back well into FI. Apart from some slightly above average temperatures it remains below average throughout the reliable, looks like December will finish below average, while not massively so it is 1-0 to the OPI right now in my opinion, as most seasonal models predicted a mild December. If they were wrong about December, surely they can be wrong about the winter as a whole?

Are you for real? You contradict yourself in the same post and not only that, you're bleating on about December finishing below average again? I guess you have a 100% record for correctly predicting the CET?

It has gone the opposite way to what you stated, and by next week, it'll looks like going above average.

I think you're just posting for reactions now, rather than being sensible.

Edited December 13, 2014 by Mapantz

[TonyH]

Crumbs the hopecasters really at it today, claiming a cold December when the output suggests uppers no lower than -5c for the CET zone for the rest of the month Wish it was otherwise but snow prospects remain poor for south and central UK for the next fortnight.

Ah see you noticed this too Mapantz

Edited December 13, 2014 by TonyH

[knocker]

Crumbs the hopecasters really at it today, claiming a cold December when the output suggests uppers no lower than -5c for the CET zone for the rest of the month Wish it was otherwise but snow prospects remain poor for south and central UK for the next fortnight.

Ah see you noticed this too Mapantz

 

I try not to use 'mild' Tony as I fear it might initiate seizures in some quarters.

[TonyH]

LOL!

[legritter]

 Just sat behind settee ,awaiting tonights charts ,dog curled up with tail cocked up ,i watched a very big flock of Jackdaws probably about 500 birds heading to our local woods ,something is a foot ,pattern change possible ,councill came around yesterday and toped up grit bins . Well lets hope gang that we see some good charts over the coming days but i,m expecting some big differences with the model, with a real firming up come Monday .I would not be surprised if next FRI/SAT brings a bit more of the white stuff but beyond that all i think to play for .reading other forums in northern  Hemisphere and some interesting synoptic situations across the northern hemisphere we could just about to begin to see some good looking charts .looking at todays Met office 16/30 day update there must be signs for cold but pinning the tail on the donkey at this range must be a hard thing to do so dont expect to much detail at this range ,patience is needed and hopefully Jam tomorrow ,    

[Barry12]

Are you for real? You contradict yourself in the same post and not only that, you're bleating on about December finishing below average again? I guess you have a 100% record for correctly predicting the CET?

It has gone the opposite way to what you stated, and by next week, it'll looks like going above average.

I think you're just posting for reactions now, rather than being sensible.

 

How have I contradicted myself? slightly above average temperatures doesn't mean mild.

 

Next week, with the exception of Wednesday, temperatures will be average to below, so I'm not sure how it looks like going above average.

[Barry12]

Average to below so far this December, as the chart below backs up:

 

[mushymanrob]

Average to below so far this December, as the chart below backs up:

 

That looks normal to me, yes some areas are a little below average but thats still normal. And normal is how i see the op runs, periodsof milder, periods of colder, some rain, some drier, temps hovering around average or normal. Typical winter.

[ribster]

Oh dear, yes 'normal', 'average', call it what you will, in December that equates to cold doesn't it? Well I've been putting a coat on every day anyway... Fine start to winter as far as I concerned, temps have pretty much been in single digits with frosts at night, currently -2 outside - cold in my book. Cold, dark and damp, what's not to like?

 

Models continue to show the same theme for now, with the odd milder blip, long may it continue. Whether it turns into something more interesting, only time will tell.

[Hocus Pocus]

I have no faith in the MO....I see their winter gritting forecasts which are shocking.....The MO need to communicate better....why don't their comms team take a trip to USA accu weather NOAA etc...they might learn something.

Yes but they are based on probabilities nothing more nothing less, it seems they are damned if they do and damned even more if they don't.

Edited December 13, 2014 by Hocus Pocus

[Mapantz]

How have I contradicted myself? slightly above average temperatures doesn't mean mild.

Next week, with the exception of Wednesday, temperatures will be average to below, so I'm not sure how it looks like going above average.

Mild weather pushed back to FI? But we see something milder next week, yet you're also saying below average next week? And you wondered why I called your posts confusing last week? Nuts!

That chart you posted shows a few anomalies of below average temps, mainly in Scotland. The rest is what I would call bang on average, which is pretty much what the CET is reflecting. It's 0.1°C below average now, I'm almost certain it will go above average by next week.

I still don't understand how you can predict a below average month with 18 days left? I sense the desperation seeping out of your posts.

Edited December 13, 2014 by Mapantz

[TonyH]

Oh dear, yes 'normal', 'average', call it what you will, in December that equates to cold doesn't it? Well I've been putting a coat on every day anyway... Fine start to winter as far as I concerned, temps have pretty much been in single digits with frosts at night, currently -2 outside - cold in my book. Cold, dark and damp, what's not to like?

 

Models continue to show the same theme for now, with the odd milder blip, long may it continue. Whether it turns into something more interesting, only time will tell.

Average in December well to some thats cold to others mild I guess or in actual fact a bit of both

Edited December 13, 2014 by TonyH

[Barry12]

Mild weather pushed back to FI? But we see something milder next week, yet you're also saying below average next week? And you wondered why I called your posts confusing last week? Nuts!

That chart you posted shows a few anomalies of below average temps, mainly in Scotland. The rest is what I would call bang on average, which is pretty much what the CET is reflecting. It's 0.1°C below average now, I'm almost certain it will go above average by next week.

I still don't understand how you can predict a below average month with 18 days left? I sense the desperation seeping out of your posts.

 

Next week will predominately have average to below average temperatures, with the exception of Wednesday. Overall, next week will be colder than average, so the CET will probably be lower than it is now. If you don't understand that, then there's nothing I can do...

Edited December 13, 2014 by ScottRichards10
Just to remove the off-topic sentence about football at the end.

[CongletonHeat]

Next week will predominately have average to below average temperatures, with the exception of Wednesday. Overall, next week will be colder than average, so the CET will probably be lower than it is now. If you don't understand that, then there's nothing I can do...

You're havin a laugh, the CET will certainly be higher than it is now in 7 days time.