Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[DAVID SNOW]

Hope Matt hugo does not mind but he posted this on twitter.still a couple of straws to grab hold of. Keep the faith.:-)

Apologies for lack of chart as I am having trouble copying it.

Small minority for now still but 16 out of 51 EC ENS members show a similar blocked evolution as per the GFS after approx 26th.

 

There's always the possibility for sure, but  as a betting man those (odds) numbers don't look good.

[Carl46Wrexham]

It's just a meh pattern really...good for those areas further north and at elevation. Watery showers on a chilly west northwesterly...errrr keep it thanks.

Edited December 14, 2014 by Carl46Wrexham

[stewfox]

There's always the possibility for sure, but  as a betting man those (odds) numbers don't look good.

 

Some things in life are bad

They can really make you mad

No snow to be had

FI Barletts just make you swear and curse

When you're chewing on life's gristle

Don't grumble, give a whistle

And this'll help things turn out for the best...

 

And always look on the bright side

of life (FI potential in Jan)

Always look on the light side

of life (FI potential in Feb)

 

If life seems jolly rotten snow not around

There's something you've forgotten 3 days of winter left

And that's to laugh and smile and dance and sing

When you're feeling in the dumps and T240 gives you the humps

Don't be silly chumps

Just purse your lips and whistle

- that's the thing.

And...always look on the bright

side of life..(FI potential March )

Come on.

Always look on the right side

of life...Jans chart

Edited December 14, 2014 by stewfox

[Thundery wintry showers]

For synoptic "eye candy" I think January 1881 threw up charts that were somewhat more impressive-looking even than those of January 1963:

Edited December 14, 2014 by Thundery wintry showers

[Costa Del Fal]

Amongst the most boring and bland charts I have seen in winter on show tonight. Mild, dry, probably cloudy and little else going on. Could well easily be looking well into January for any real cold now. Its clear that the Azores/Iberian high is set to become a major control on our weather. At least last year was exciting if not snowy. This winter is just completely boring so far for the majority of us.

 

Last winter was fascinating in terms of the sheer power of mother nature, the ferocity of winds, the relentless rain. Yes it was damaging but not like this snoozefest.

 

Roll on Summer. My interest in winter wanes each year I think, helped by living in Cornwall most of the time. Love the outdoors and the opportunities summer brings. Unless its snowy or stormy in winter the season could not be more dull.

Edited December 14, 2014 by Costa Del Fal

[Evening thunder]

Tonight's ECM doesn't get -5c uppers near the south of the UK at the weekend, and those couple of days may not actually be far off average looking at that before mild weather returns. The BBC forecasts 'most likely' maximum for Exeter does not drop below 9c..

 

and after that I hope it isn't going to be as hard to get cold to the south as some model runs are suggesting.. especially if the Azores high nudges close to the south.. I don't want the weather to go all boring now I have a chance to enjoy it more.

 

The models are pretty bad for wintry weather tbh, I'm seeing more Bartletts or similar mild flows than cold synoptics actually covering the UK even in FI.. Both the GFS and ECM ensemble means offer this too... Of course further down the line things may evolve into a better situation if we're lucky but it isn't really showing strongly in the models yet.

 

 but we are told we now have a warming climate which we didnt have over those centuries    

 

The CET record would suggest we do

 

 

Amongst the most boring and bland charts I have seen in winter on show tonight. Mild, dry, probably cloudy and little else going on. Could well easily be looking well into January for any real cold now. Its clear that the Azores/Iberian high is set to become a major control on our weather. At least last year was exciting if not snowy. This winter is just completely boring so far for the majority of us.

 

Last winter was fascinating in terms of the sheer power of mother nature, the ferocity of winds, the relentless rain. Yes it was damaging but not like this snoozefest.

 

Quite agree in terms of the outlook, I think December has been ok so far with a fair few sunny days and some night frosts, but most of the charts don't look pretty..

[JOPRO]

Normal gumpfy on the mod thread about mild showing up at 240+hrs, therefor it is a dead cert and will happen as exactly shown on one set of afternoon/evening runs. More flapping going on than a henhouse. Let's see how things pan out over the rest of the week before we pass judgment.

[mountain shadow]

Given the pre Winter positivity the charts at the moment are a real let down.

Hopefully something more interesting will appear tomorrow

[draztik]

Normal gumpfy on the mod thread about mild showing up at 240+hrs, therefor it is a dead cert and will happen as exactly shown on one set of afternoon/evening runs. More flapping going on than a henhouse. Let's see how things pan out over the rest of the week before we pass judgment.

 

well sure.

but when you endure a winter like last year...

to be followed with an ensemble mean chart like...

for 23rd dec...

 

you can understand why some may be flapping.

chances of cold this side / or indeed into new year, look remote.

yes, things could change. and yes, baby steps may take us closer to something more prolonged.

but if we hear 'patience' one more time, the henhouse may explode. maybe.

[Chris K]

well sure.

but when you endure a winter like last year...

to be followed with an ensemble mean chart like...

for 23rd dec...

 

you can understand why some may be flapping.

chances of cold this side / or indeed into new year, look remote.

yes, things could change. and yes, baby steps may take us closer to something more prolonged.

but if we hear 'patience' one more time, the henhouse may explode. maybe.

 

 

Woooops don't read my post in the MOD thread then   

[snowangel32]

Hope Matt hugo does not mind but he posted this on twitter.still a couple of straws to grab hold of. Keep the faith.:-)

Apologies for lack of chart as I am having trouble copying it.

Small minority for now still but 16 out of 51 EC ENS members show a similar blocked evolution as per the GFS after approx 26th.

They are reducing rapidly i think we need to face facts that its been a shocking model day all in all and cant see any prolonged cold or snow until at least jan

Just when it all seemed over the gefs give us that one crumb of hope lots of cold scenarios being showed, and lots showing heights into the fabled greenland where did this come from.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=300

Edited December 15, 2014 by snowangel32

[SnowObsessor90]

My fellow coldies needn't worry too much, I recently booked a trip away to a certain cold and snowy place which is almost certain to backfire on me at some point, in fact it wouldn't surprise me if it happened as soon as Christmas.

[Mapantz]

For synoptic "eye candy" I think January 1881 threw up charts that were somewhat more impressive-looking even than those of January 1963:

What a beauty! I've always wondered how they render charts from the past, when they didn't have computers and software to do it, initially. Do they feed in FAX charts and observations?

[Barry12]

There seems to have been somewhat of a vicissitude today, although I'm sure the morning will behold a better set of charts for us to digest. No dead cert pattern change obviously, but good trends. Simple innit!

[hec1]

No decent storm = no decent snow

This boring weather will continue for a while I bet.......

anyway I had a bottle of Buckfast, not that the weather matters much ................ . ..

Edited December 15, 2014 by hec1

[Bristawl Si]

Given the pre Winter positivity the charts at the moment are a real let down.

Hopefully something more interesting will appear tomorrow

The Meto contingency forecast til end January could be proved to be broadly correct i guess.

Damn those super computers! Lol!

[snowblizzard]

Models still indicating a continuation of the Westerly based 'rinse & repeat' weather type!

Still speculation about what might occur in terms of Northern blocking & SSW at higher latitudes in January/February but doubts beginning to filter through?

My biggest concern at the moment is the lack of cold over NW Europe!

I live in SE England and we never really benefit from Northerly type weather, most of our really cold/snowy spells in the past years have been as a result of cold air from the continent!

Only 2 weeks into winter, so don't worry just yet, but if we haven't seen significant changes in the pattern by 2nd week January then I don't think we will see much in the way of cold/snow in SE this winter!

Edited December 15, 2014 by snowblizzard

[Carl46Wrexham]

OK Ladies and Germs...when do we bin this month as a fail? Place yer bets!!!

[garbagebags]

OK Ladies and Germs...when do we bin this month as a fail? Place yer bets!!!

Ski resorts in Scotland are open. Had snow on the ground here a few days and Dec looking to come in lower than average CET. 

Hardly a "fail" is it?

[SLEETY]

Why is Gibby thinking its going to be an Azores driven winter and writing off this winter already, in the model output discussion.its not even winter yet!.well his credibility is going to take a nosedive if we get a severe winter now .

[TwisterGirl81]

Ski resorts in Scotland are open. Had snow on the ground here a few days and Dec looking to come in lower than average CET. 

Hardly a "fail" is it?

 

But Scotland has snow every year so it's hardly surprising and is always the best place to be in relation to the UK if you want snow...

 

I think the southwest like Devon and Cornwall have to be the worse places to live if you're hoping for snow, it's rare we get any noteworthy snow, obviously with 2010 being an acception.

[Yarmy]

But Scotland has snow every year so it's hardly surprising and is always the best place to be in relation to the UK if you want snow...

 

I think the southwest like Devon and Cornwall have to be the worse places to live if you're hoping for snow, it's rare we get any noteworthy snow, obviously with 2010 being an acception.

 

I think the Southwest had it worse (better? ) than anywhere in 63 with plenty of battleground setups. 

[TwisterGirl81]

I'd rather have this bland weather over the wet and windy garbage that we had for the whole of last winter. Don't get me wrong, I'd prefer cold and snow to this but I'd take this weather over those pain in the backside Atlantic storms any day.

 

Oh dear god, as a weather enthusiast I see nothing interesting about this bland boring weather, I would rather have last winter back any day! 

[Harps]

Oh dear god, as a weather enthusiast I see nothing interesting about this bland boring weather, I would rather have last winter back any day!

Likewise, each to their own but I don't get the complete obsession with snow and total disregard for everything else. The rain wasn't particularly nice but last winter threw up almost non stop interesting weather, this year the the SE has been a complete borefest up to now with no change on the horizon

[knocker]

But Scotland has snow every year so it's hardly surprising and is always the best place to be in relation to the UK if you want snow...

 

I think the southwest like Devon and Cornwall have to be the worse places to live if you're hoping for snow, it's rare we get any noteworthy snow, obviously with 2010 being an acception.

 

I don't know. The great blizzard of 1891 gave 15ft drifts in Devon and Cornwall. But yes, thankfully we usually bask.