Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Ice Day]

The heated posts in here tonight are comedy gold!  Gentlemen, it's just the weather for goodness sake - try to enjoy it whatever it may bring!

Edited December 13, 2014 by Ice Day

[snowangel32]

All this heated discussion and the models will change again tomoz i mean just compare this mornings run with the evening runs its like chalk and cheese. So to sum it up its an average December so far with the end tbc, why cant you guys just enjoy the ride. And be nice to eachother afterall its the season of goodwill lol.

[knocker]

Snatch a winter break in the Scilly Isles

 

[sparky1972]

well i have to say as much as i am a cold and snow fan, the temps over the next 16 days according to the weather outlook 16 day forecast are due to be in the low teens i can switch my heating off and save some money on the bills.

[mushymanrob]

Oh dear, yes 'normal', 'average', call it what you will, in December that equates to cold doesn't it? Well I've been putting a coat on every day anyway... Fine start to winter as far as I concerned, temps have pretty much been in single digits with frosts at night, currently -2 outside - cold in my book. Cold, dark and damp, what's not to like?

 

Models continue to show the same theme for now, with the odd milder blip, long may it continue. Whether it turns into something more interesting, only time will tell.

 

i didnt infer otherwise, in fact ive posted previously that average for december is cold... so cold in december is normal. but i suspect coldies will not be satisfied with 'normal' cold... anymore then id be satisfied for 'normal' temps in summer.

[Carl46Wrexham]

i didnt infer otherwise, in fact ive posted previously that average for december is cold... so cold in december is normal. but i suspect coldies will not be satisfied with 'normal' cold... anymore then id be satisfied for 'normal' temps in summer.

If normal cold means rain and wind followed by rain showers then...quite frankly no not really. Waterlogging of fields in my area has started courtesy of the hours of heavy rain from the other night. If this is going to be the general pattern for the rest of the month then December will get a low mark.

[Milhouse]

At the moment the big day itself looks to be mild for the southern half of the UK, cooler for the northern half with a NW flow more probable.

 

[mushymanrob]

If normal cold means rain and wind followed by rain showers then...quite frankly no not really. Waterlogging of fields in my area has started courtesy of the hours of heavy rain from the other night. If this is going to be the general pattern for the rest of the month then December will get a low mark.

I was referring to temps not conditions. Normal cold = temps normally expected, not whether its wet, dry, windy or calm

[Carl46Wrexham]

Fair enough, but I can't for the life of me understand why people are trying to put a positive spin on the current pattern. Yes it's delivered up north at elevation, but for the rest of us it has frankly been pretty crap in truth unless rain in frontal bands followed by rain in the form of showers does it for you on the basis that it feels cold.

Oh and avoid the accusation that I seek snowy weather and nothing else, I'll just add this. Were I given the choice of a continuation of the current pattern or a spell of dry weather with temperatures of 12c+, it would be the mild every single time.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Bets are off for a white Xmas the ensembles says it all!

[Barry12]

Fair enough, but I can't for the life of me understand why people are trying to put a positive spin on the current pattern.

 

 

Looks alright to me?

[IDO]

The Mets update for the week ahead, cool Mon-Tues,13 and 14c midweek, average next weekend:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/30469760?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

 

At the moment 2 scenarios for Christmas...

[Mapantz]

 

Looks alright to me?

There may have been a clue in his post? current

[snowice]

Just read an article in www.Joe.ie about mid alantic cooling and how this cold water is currently displacing the jet and in the comming weeks we are going to have a 2010 event?all to be taken with a pinch of salt?From experience unless I see the models pick up the synisopis I won't belive it?

Edited December 14, 2014 by snowice

[mushymanrob]

 

Looks alright to me?

C'mon barry, you ridicule people for looking to fi for mild, yet here you are posting charts in deep fi to prove a point?

[Eugene]

Fair enough, but I can't for the life of me understand why people are trying to put a positive spin on the current pattern. Yes it's delivered up north at elevation, but for the rest of us it has frankly been pretty crap in truth unless rain in frontal bands followed by rain in the form of showers does it for you on the basis that it feels cold.

Oh and avoid the accusation that I seek snowy weather and nothing else, I'll just add this. Were I given the choice of a continuation of the current pattern or a spell of dry weather with temperatures of 12c+, it would be the mild every single time.

 

 

It's been pretty dry here this December with a lovely crisp feel, you can keep you're horrible mild muck, most of us don't want it.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I've got a bad feeling this winters Synoptics are looking more and more like a Bartlett setup with us missing out on the cold yet again! Can't see the low heights around Greenland disappearing UNLESS we get SSW in the reliable timeframe! Rant over

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

C'mon barry, you ridicule people for looking to fi for mild, yet here you are posting charts in deep fi to prove a point?

C'mon barry, you ridicule people for looking to fi for mild, yet here you are posting charts in deep fi to prove a point?

Totally agree Mushy, those Synoptics are as likely to come true as someone getting 5 numbers on the lottery!

[meathead]

I've got a bad feeling this winters Synoptics are looking more and more like a Bartlett setup with us missing out on the cold yet again! Can't see the low heights around Greenland disappearing UNLESS we get SSW in the reliable timeframe! Rant over

 Missing out on the cold again? There has been at least 4 days of snow lying in lowland Scotland so far and it's only the 14th of December. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Missing out on the cold again? There has been at least 4 days of snow lying in lowland Scotland so far and it's only the 14th of December.

Not exactly deep snow though compared to the states getting 6 foot!

[steveinsussex]

 Missing out on the cold again? There has been at least 4 days of snow lying in lowland Scotland so far and it's only the 14th of December. 

 

Great, for most of us thats like saying lowland Germany has had snow, both are around 400 miles away

 

Every year Scotland shall get some form of falling snow, for many down south its an experience to just get that.....

[Chris K]

C'mon barry, you ridicule people for looking to fi for mild, yet here you are posting charts in deep fi to prove a point?

 

This is not aimed at you mushy - just a general point...because people get ridiculed for looking to FI for cold, posting charts in deep FI to prove a point as well. Maybe not on the same scale, due to there being a larger number of people here who search for cold & snow during winter, but happens all the same.

 

FI is FI and I cannot believe some people who have used this site for years seem to keep ignoring that fact. I often read posts saying that a trend may have been spotted from FI, but I sometimes wonder if people are actually keeping a chart record of a "trend" before saying so.

 

 

I've got a bad feeling this winters Synoptics are looking more and more like a Bartlett setup with us missing out on the cold yet again! Can't see the low heights around Greenland disappearing UNLESS we get SSW in the reliable timeframe! Rant over

 

A SSW is not necessarily needed - equally cold weather isn't guaranteed if one does occur - it just possibly gives us a better chance. There was a good post the other day from someone, where they were giving examples of past prolonged spells of cold BEFORE an SSW occurred.

 

Totally agree Mushy, those Synoptics are as likely to come true as someone getting 5 numbers on the lottery!

 

The wonders of FI...no matter it shows.  

 

 

Not exactly deep snow though compared to the states getting 6 foot!

 

Very rare in the UK even though we have been spoilt in recent years - you are probably better off going on holiday, moving on top of a mountain or live in a different country that does see that often! 

Edited December 14, 2014 by Chris K

[mushymanrob]

Great, for most of us thats like saying lowland Germany has had snow, both are around 400 miles away

 

Every year Scotland shall get some form of falling snow, for many down south its an experience to just get that.....

Exactly.... Who cares who gets what if its not delivering where most people are! Scotland got snow... So what!! Someone south of the boarder cant claim that lol

[Eugene]

It's looking grim it must be said, not much cheer on the GFS 12Z ensembles with only hints of something better at the end, I'm expecting a poor ECM 12Z OP tonight.

[biggreyface]

Exactly.... Who cares who gets what if its not delivering where most people are! Scotland got snow... So what!! Someone south of the boarder cant claim that lol