Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[biggreyface]

I thought at this time of year a lot of people would be interested in knowing that over 1/3 of the u.k landmass has had several days of falling and lying snow.

[A.J]

here's a ramp for ya....

 

 

Phrroar!!...... a sexy chart for coldies

 

 

 

 

 

[mushymanrob]

I thought at this time of year a lot of people would be interested in knowing that over 1/3 of the u.k landmass has had several days of falling and lying snow.

.... But it only applies to those who have it. Those who dont cant claim it. And has been pointed out, its not unusual for the scottish highlands to get wintry weather whilst the rest of the uk is relatively mild.

[Richard2901]

1/3 of the UK landmass has not had lying snow. There has been very little lying snow at all in Scotland away from the Highlands and High Ground. 

 

Here, in Britain's snowiest city, there has been no lying snow since 19th November 2013 which is ridiculous and unprecedented to go so long without snow on the ground. Apart from a few flakes of dandruff the other night all there has been this month is cold rain and not even much of that. It's just been bone dry with a relentless nasty cold wind that smacks you in the face every time you go outside. As much as I am longing to see proper hard frosts and snowy winter wonderland scenes I welcomed the milder temperatures today because it made the wind feel less unpleasant.

 

It really has been an atrocious December so far. Because the wind never lets up it's barely dropped below freezing at night. A low of just -1.1C so far and 12.6 hours of frost. It's going to be the least wintry first half of December since 2006 here.

Edited December 14, 2014 by Richard2901

[knocker]

Now what was that about the Azores High? Oh yes.......................I had a dream, I had a dream.........................

 

[SE Blizzards]

How many more blocked charts like these is the CFS gonna throw out at us...?

 

 

 

[conor123]

Taking a break from the charts this week, in fact might not bother till after Christmas now, another weatherless 10 days at least on the way here.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Taking a break from the charts this week, in fact might not bother till after Christmas now, another weatherless 10 days at least on the way here.

 

Don't look that bad, doesn't seem to scream washout, miles better than low after low on a southerly tracking jet, meaning 4C and rain

[Froze were the Days]

How many more blocked charts like these is the CFS gonna throw out at us...?

 

Yeah but isn't that just from the 18z run of that particular day? - I've seen many a run on the 9 month model which shows nothing of the sort - I think your just cherry picking so you can hold a grudge against the CFS v2!

Edited December 14, 2014 by Froze were the Days

[SE Blizzards]

Yeah but isn't that just from the 18z run of that particular day? - I've seen many a run on the 9 month model which shows nothing of the sort - I think your just cherry picking so you can hold a grudge against the model!

 

Well, we must of been viewing it differently then because i have seen quite a few blocked charts from the CFS as of late. Especially February. And i hope it continues that way because there is nobody who would love to see a blocked last two thirds of Winter more than me.

 

And i'm not one for holding a grudge at all, so your suggestion of me holding a grudge against a LR model is laughable.

Edited December 14, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[ditch]

I am a lover of cold and snowy winters. However, I'm afraid looking at the charts for the up coming 10 to 14 days and possibly beyond, I can see very little wintry weather for the majority of the UK. We are now in a dominate westerly wind direction which will keep the conditions fairly average for the rest of the month.

Let's hope europe goes into the freezer fairly soon with cold from the east, then we will see a pattern change and the best chance of something more wintry in the UK come the new year .....This I feel will happen.

To keep the faith, for centuries the true winter period starts December 21- so don't be fooled by any organisation that in recent times start the winter period December 1.

[mushymanrob]

I

To keep the faith, for centuries the true winter period starts December 21- so don't be fooled by any organisation that in recent times start the winter period December 1.

Centuaries? The romans and celts used the meterological dates we use now. Besides hasnt the last two weeks been wintry? Dec1 is a sensible date as this year has proven.

[ditch]

Centuaries? The romans and celts used the meterological dates we use now. Besides hasnt the last two weeks been wintry? Dec1 is a sensible date as this year has proven.

What of the Romans ever done for us!! .....Lol.

[IanR]

 keep the faith, for centuries the true winter period starts December 21- so don't be fooled by any organisation that in recent times start the winter period December 1.

 but we are told we now have a warming climate which we didnt have over those centuries   

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Centuaries? The romans and celts used the meterological dates we use now. Besides hasnt the last two weeks been wintry? Dec1 is a sensible date as this year has proven.

 

for Scotland perhaps, but for the south winter tends to be mainly 2nd half of Jan, all of Feb and early Mar

 

not many years I wouldn't have thought the first 3 weeks of Dec have had very cold weather/snow in the south

[stewfox]

Interesting BBC weekly forecast went out to xmas week. I have seen them not go out beyond T48 in some years re xmas forecast

 

is this due as Fergie says "remarkably low levels of (Shannon) entropy2  ??

[ribster]

Now what was that about the Azores High? Oh yes.......................I had a dream, I had a dream.........................

I believe that was one of two options knocker, but of course you wouldn't post the other now would you? Merry Christmas to you too!

[Froze were the Days]

Well, we must of been viewing it differently then because i have seen quite a few blocked charts from the CFS as of late. Especially February. And i hope it continues that way because there is nobody who would love to see a blocked last two thirds of Winter more than me.

 

And i'm not one for holding a grudge at all, so your suggestion of me holding a grudge against a LR model is laughable.

Always seem to be a certain few willing to knock that model and if you've followed it's output as close as I have then what you have posted is a rogue run, back in mid-November for a short period regular blocking was being shown on various runs and quite regularly (particularly in Jan/Feb) but as the weeks have passed the model has generally dropped such scenario's and unfortunately continued with the Azores/near continent to the SE High pressure cell whilst at other times a low pressure dominated theme.

 

By the way nothing vindictive in my prior post towards yourself - just making a point

Edited December 14, 2014 by Froze were the Days

[SE Blizzards]

Always seem to be a certain few willing to knock that model and if you've followed it's output as close as I have then what you have posted is a rogue run, back in mid-November for a short period regular blocking was being shown on various runs and quite regularly (particularly in Jan/Feb) but as the weeks have passed the model has generally dropped such scenario's and unfortunately continued with the Azores/near continent to the SE High pressure cell whilst at other times a low pressure dominated theme.

 

By the way nothing vindictive in my prior post towards yourself - just making a point

 

We'll have to agree to disagree, because like i said, i have seen quite a few 'blocked' February charts.

 

Anyway, let's leave it there.

 

Merry Christmas   

[DAVID SNOW]

February !!!

[BlakeyWeather]

Hi its shannon sorry been on holiday, my entropy will be high as of this coming week. Thanks

[ditch]

but we are told we now have a warming climate which we didnt have over those centuries

We are told we are now in a warming climate-but centuries ago there were warmer and colder periods sometimes over decades. Having experienced over 40 winters, more have been mild than cold. However, I feel we are now entering a period of more average to colder winters which in the next 20 years will provide us cold lovers with weather we look for during winter.

The weather in the UK during December rarely delivers nationwide cold and snow, so at the moment I feel the conditions have been fairly typical.

Come January and February I'm hopeful the winter will deliver cold and enough snow to build a snowman or two.

[stewfox]

Hi its shannon sorry been on holiday, my entropy will be high as of this coming week. Thanks

 

Please to hear it, would get very boring if we could predict the weather.

[knocker]

Either side of the front.

Chart weatherbell

 

[Mark wheeler]

Hope Matt hugo does not mind but he posted this on twitter.still a couple of straws to grab hold of. Keep the faith.:-)

Apologies for lack of chart as I am having trouble copying it.

Small minority for now still but 16 out of 51 EC ENS members show a similar blocked evolution as per the GFS after approx 26th.

Edited December 14, 2014 by Mark wheeler