Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[mushymanrob]

This morning's runs can be pretty much binned because...........I don't really like them!

 

lol... i like your frankness!

 

It doesn't matter if you like cold or mild in the winter.

When you wake up to rain and it still being dark at 8am, its so depressing.

 

its nice, you just roll over and snuggle up in the warmth of your bed...

im not sure why so many are disappointed with this cold spell... it was never going to be anything other then what it is.... unless you believed the rampers in which case... lol...

[Danielvn]

How many more days before we can consign this month to the bin?

Nearly halfway through and for the majority of us it's been pretty poor fare. The models frankly don't give much scope for optimism for the foreseeable future either unless you are up a Scottish mountain.

Have only had 1 air frost so far (3rd Dec) and not so much as a single "wintry" shower...plenty of rain and rain showers though. Not experienced anything yet to convince me that it's "better than last winter". Better than last winter in my book would be either cold snowy weather or mild and dry weather. It's neither though, it's cold wet garbage. Sorry, just calling it as im seeing it.

 

I work in Deeside and we've had loads of ice pellets and a fair bit of sleet. We're only 12 days into December, still got January and February to go yet!!!!!!

[stainesbloke]

it's always ...lets see what the next 12 days bring. well i can guarantee we will get rain and mild thats for sure. i think i am going to give up on the search for cold and snow (or anything remotely interesting winterwise) in this country. Just leads you up the garden path and disappoints. very boring weather.

It's only December 12th and people are already 'giving up' on winter etc etc...bit sad really and quite boring if I'm being honest.

Interesting article by Phillip Eden on weather online discussing snowy Decembers in this country....rare as hen's teeth. 1950, 1981 and 2010. That's about it in the last 60 years or so. Just to put things in some kind of perspective!

Personally, I'm quite enjoying winter so far. Bit too wet, would prefer a nice sunny high sat over us for a few weeks but so far have had sun, wind, fog, frost and rain. Would rather any snow came after the holidays, preferably in Jan or Feb. We're not Canada, an inch of snow here causes total chaos and this in Dec would be really annoying.

Charts still very uncertain in the longer term so I think after an unsettled couple of weeks a change will come.

Edited December 12, 2014 by stainesbloke

[Mair Snaw]

It's only December 12th and people are already 'giving up' on winter etc etc...bit sad really and quite boring if I'm being honest.

Interesting article by Phillip Eden on weather online discussing snowy Decembers in this country....rare as hen's teeth. 1950, 1981 and 2010. That's about it in the last 60 years or so. Just to put things in some kind of perspective!

Personally, I'm quite enjoying winter so far. Bit too wet, would prefer a nice sunny high sat over us for a few weeks but so far have had sun, wind, fog, frost and rain. Would rather any snow came after the holidays, preferably in Jan or Feb. We're not Canada, an inch of snow here causes total chaos and this in Dec would be really annoying.

Charts still very uncertain in the longer term so I think after an unsettled couple of weeks a change will come.

Not even an inch brings the UK to a mad frenzy of poor driving, panic buying milk and bread etc....so far this winter ive had to de ice the car more in the first 12 days of this winter than I did in the whole of the last one ive even seen real snow flakes and some lying snow in the hills at the back of my garden...as you say winter is certainly not over....Fergieweather has been posting some very good news from the meto in the MOD thread...so things could be set to get better...keep the faith.

[snowblizzard]

It's only December 12th and people are already 'giving up' on winter etc etc...bit sad really and quite boring if I'm being honest.

Interesting article by Phillip Eden on weather online discussing snowy Decembers in this country....rare as hen's teeth. 1950, 1981 and 2010. That's about it in the last 60 years or so. Just to put things in some kind of perspective!

Personally, I'm quite enjoying winter so far. Bit too wet, would prefer a nice sunny high sat over us for a few weeks but so far have had sun, wind, fog, frost and rain. Would rather any snow came after the holidays, preferably in Jan or Feb. We're not Canada, an inch of snow here causes total chaos and this in Dec would be really annoying.

Charts still very uncertain in the longer term so I think after an unsettled couple of weeks a change will come.

My sentiments exactly!

I think people's perceptions have been severely affected purely by the severe weather we all experienced during December 2010 which turned out to be one of the coldest on record.

I'm now 59 years old, and I can't remember many Decembers where we've experienced lying snow or sub zero ice days in the South of England.

1963 & 1947 didn't really get going until late December or mid January!

Much uncertainty within the model suites at present, I don't think we can't really look any further than about +120 at the moment. 

But, I just get the feeling that this winter is going to be different and will eventually deliver at least one really decent cold/snowy shot, but I don't think we will see it until mid January or early February.

As usual in UK, much patience required!

Edited December 12, 2014 by snowblizzard

[snow freak]

sorry if you think im moaning but i thought that was the point of this forum.  Yes i am well aware that cold snowy spells are a rarity in this sceptred isle but that still doesn't stop me wanting it to snow.  Yes we are only at the start of winter but that means nothing.  the same was said last year and we ended up with nothing.  I personally don't think it's a good omen for the rest of the winter if we haven't had the first snowfall in southern england by December in my books.  Maybe i will be proved wrong in the new year, but with the charts refusing to point to anything solidly wintry then I refuse to get drawn into the 'will it, won't it' debate and just stick my head out of the window when or if it does finally decide to snow.

[snow freak]

My sentiments exactly!

I think people's perceptions have been severely affected purely by the severe weather we all experienced during December 2010 which turned out to be one of the coldest on record.

I'm now 59 years old, and I can't remember many Decembers where we've experienced lying snow or sub zero ice days in the South of England.

1963 & 1947 didn't really get going until late December or mid January!

Much uncertainty within the model suites at present, I don't think we can't really look any further than about +120 at the moment. 

But, I just get the feeling that this winter is going to be different and will eventually deliver at least one really decent cold/snowy shot, but I don't think we will see it until mid January or early February.

As usual in UK, much patience required!

i do agree that December 2010 was an exceptional lengthy period of cold and snow for us in the UK.  I would imagine though that winter overall was probably average or even milder than average as it was predominantly mild from January onwards with no repetition of any snow or frost after that initial December cold.

[> mark]

So far, winter 2013/14 vs. 2014/15 winners:

 

Snow: 2013/14

Frost: 2014/15

 

I love the snow when it first arrives and for a day or so ........ certainly not fussed with the slush/thaw!

Edited December 12, 2014 by > mark

[Blackjack]

I guess some people will never be happy unless they move to Canada or Scandinavia. 

 

Some people seem to take it as a personal affront if the weather is not trending to some kind of apocalyptic snow or cold. It just doesn't seem enough for some that we have in the last 5 years gone through 09/10 10/12 and 12/13 winters with 13/14 being amazing for IMO for all the wrong reasons, but fascinating all the same.

 

So say the charts started showing a 46/47 or 62/63, I bet some people still wouldn't be happy unless it topped them or happened again exactly the same the next year. 

 

I love snow and snow days and freezing weather, but if you're that desperate for extremes, think about emigrating. 

 

For me its NO repeat of last year. I expect it to be cold and wet from now towards the end of month with the potential for a negative NAO at Xmas or later. High pressure to sit over UK for some time around Xmas into New Year bringing settled cold weather/fog and frost. IF the NAO goes negative then we can look at the potential for some prolonged cold spells in Jan. Only then can we search for some significant snow country wide. 

[cheeky_monkey]

I guess some people will never be happy unless they move to Canada or Scandinavia. 

 

the novelty soon wears off believe me..i find it most amusing when people moan and moan about the lack of snow like its the end of the world..still its all good fun to come here and see all the wrist slitting than goes on..keep it up!

Edited December 12, 2014 by cheeky_monkey

[Blackjack]

the novelty soon wears off believe me..i find it most amusing when people moan and moan about the lack of snow like its the end of the world..still its all good fun to come here and see all the wrist slitting than goes on..keep it up!

 

I knew someone who lived in Yellowknife. He soon found that coming back home to the UK was preferable. There is snow and cold....and then there is snow and cold. 

[cheeky_monkey]

I knew someone who lived in Yellowknife. He soon found that coming back home to the UK was preferable. There is snow and cold....and then there is snow and cold. 

Funnily enough I could quite happily live in Yellowknife if it wasn't for the mosquitoes in the summer time...that would be more of a killer than the cold.

[alexisj9]

I love snow but I wouldn't move somewhere cold if you paid me lol, I hate cold. The English winter are just perfect, not to hot, not to cold, and surprises that pop up out of the blue. Last year not my cup of tea, as I do not like wind storms, but they are a part of our climate and if they come along so be it. I'm not worried at all about the output in the models, as when something cold shows up, it is normally a sudden change. This winter for me so far has been just right, a bit of everything as it should be. I'm sure even some sleet fell the other day. If the cold and snow make it down here I will love watching it fall, if it doesn't, may be next year.

[Carl46Wrexham]

I noticed a few postings ago talking of people writing the winter off. I for one didn't say I was writing it all off. Fact is though, we are nearly at halfway through the first month of December, with the majority having as yet seen nothing that could be described as remotely wintry. What we have had is the odd frost, a big gale and a fair bit of rain both in the form of frequent showers and frontal.

As I said I am not writing the whole season off, but I do feel that the time is fast approaching when it may be wise to trash this month. The models do not show anything of encouragement within the reliable, that is a fact. It is already noticeable that people are already having to make jam tomorrow postings suggesting the promised land could start coming into range in 10/12 days time. Smacks of last time round a wee bit too much for my liking. I'm not saying people shouldn't post Jam tomorrow stuff, but surely it can be understood that some will be sceptical after what happened last time round...Jam tomorrow that never actually came. The dread of a repeat is difficult to suppress and it doesn't help knowing that a milder period with rain is coming.

Edited December 12, 2014 by Carl46Wrexham

[sundog]

 it doesn't help knowing that a milder period with rain is coming.

Quite often things get worse before they get better though. We have often seen in the past being in what looks to be a hopeless situation quickley turn into something a lot more hopeful. Personnally i think the cold will come sooner or later but not until after xmas.

[knocker]

Well a possible pattern change but does it fit in with retrogression?

 

Possible pattern change coming late Dec. as heights build over Alaska. Continues through Week 4, focusing cold o/East pic.twitter.com/gP6PYKynX5

[The Post-modern Winter]

I noticed a few postings ago talking of people writing the winter off. I for one didn't say I was writing it all off. Fact is though, we are nearly at halfway through the first month of December, with the majority having as yet seen nothing that could be described as remotely wintry. What we have had is the odd frost, a big gale and a fair bit of rain both in the form of frequent showers and frontal.

As I said I am not writing the whole season off, but I do feel that the time is fast approaching when it may be wise to trash this month. The models do not show anything of encouragement within the reliable, that is a fact. It is already noticeable that people are already having to make jam tomorrow postings suggesting the promised land could start coming into range in 10/12 days time. Smacks of last time round a wee bit too much for my liking. I'm not saying people shouldn't post Jam tomorrow stuff, but surely it can be understood that some will be sceptical after what happened last time round...Jam tomorrow that never actually came. The dread of a repeat is difficult to suppress and it doesn't help knowing that a milder period with rain is coming.

 

If you're that desperate have a drive up to Bwlchgwyn/Gwynfryn mate. About 20 minutes from you and you'll see something wintry right now. . Nice little dusting up there.

[Carl46Wrexham]

If you're that desperate have a drive up to Bwlchgwyn/Gwynfryn mate. About 20 minutes from you and you'll see something wintry right now. . Nice little dusting up there.

Think I was spoiled as a kid in truth, grew up in Coedpoeth 600-700ft above sea level just down the road from Bwlchgwyn and snow was pretty much guaranteed every winter.

[The Post-modern Winter]

Think I was spoiled as a kid in truth, grew up in Coedpoeth 600-700ft above sea level just down the road from Bwlchgwyn and snow was pretty much guaranteed every winter.

 

Yeah, I grew up in the centre of Chester which is virtually snowless every winter but now live at 750ft with part of my land passing 1050ft. Seen snow every DJF, bar only two months over the past 5 years. 

[mushymanrob]

sorry if you think im moaning but i thought that was the point of this forum.  Yes i am well aware that cold snowy spells are a rarity in this sceptred isle but that still doesn't stop me wanting it to snow.  Yes we are only at the start of winter but that means nothing.  the same was said last year and we ended up with nothing. I personally don't think it's a good omen for the rest of the winter if we haven't had the first snowfall in southern england by December in my books.  Maybe i will be proved wrong in the new year, but with the charts refusing to point to anything solidly wintry then I refuse to get drawn into the 'will it, won't it' debate and just stick my head out of the window when or if it does finally decide to snow.

 

i tend to agree..... most snowy/cold winters in my lifetime do have snowy spells in december, so it is an omen, but not a hard fast rule.

ahh yes, the great snowy decembers of 81, 10, perfect winters imho... good deep snow in early winter followed by nowt after mid january... i LOVE mild februaries, but mostly after a normal winter (with at least one snow/cold spell). ok, i dont like the cold in particular, but i dont like going to the dentist either and i endure that for the greater good!

[Methuselah]

Think I was spoiled as a kid in truth[...]

Me too; I was six in 1963...

[knocker]

Me too; I was six in 1963...

Your lucky I was 19 and stuck in a wooden hut they called a Met. Office on the Salisbury Plain. It's now known as knockers hut due to the similar circumstances as the famous one in Antarctica.

Edited December 12, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

The P still running the cold/warm air scenario next week.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Edited December 12, 2014 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

Your lucky I was 19 and stuck in a wooden hut they called a Met. Office on the Salisbury Plain. It's now known as knockers hut due to the similar circumstances as the famous one in Antarctica.

 

Brilliant Knock 

Edited December 12, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[mushymanrob]

Me too; I was six in 1963...

Same here but i missed most of the snow, i had Bronchial pneumonia that winter.