Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Hopefully a timely interjection, but UKMO caution (again) that medium range NWP may not be adequately reflecting ultimate broadscale outcome. First tentative signs emerging, they suggest, of *possible* pattern change (weakening of MSLP anomaly; transition to -ve NAO) second half/later December, with GloSea5 continuing to yield interesting stratospheric signals later this month. So, without wanting to sound like a stuck record, I do urge 'elasticity of thought' when assessing distant reaches of EC/GFS suites.

Ian I have to say , you've just made my day , a otherwise grim typical Monday monday has just been transformed into a very happy day !!

We'v been looking for this in the strat thread , really good to see your excellent model is also picking upon this . Possibly a wintry Xmas period coming up ?

[TSNWK]

Hopefully a timely interjection, but UKMO caution (again) that medium range NWP may not be adequately reflecting ultimate broadscale outcome. First tentative signs emerging, they suggest, of *possible* pattern change (weakening of MSLP anomaly; transition to -ve NAO) second half/later December, with GloSea5 continuing to yield interesting stratospheric signals later this month. So, without wanting to sound like a stuck record, I do urge 'elasticity of thought' when assessing distant reaches of EC/GFS suites.

Many thanks Fergie great to have your input and as a coldie I do hope it firms up and your past performance of calling it right for mild this year and last year continues when it might be something different.

 

 

 

No pressure.

Edited December 8, 2014 by Polar Maritime
To resize tex.

[mushymanrob]

So 7 days into winter, where are we so far?

1. Snow already falling in Scotland

2. Snow cannot be ruled out for 90% of us in the next 7 days

3. My car scraper is actually being used, unlike last winter when I think I used it once in November

4. Strat posters who I consider level headed are almost ramping about likely developments 10hpa to 1hpa

5. My winter forecast has already failed dramatically

As for those confidently predicting a return to zonality, aren't they the ones who'd confidently predicted High Pressure over the UK for now just 7 days ago??

 

the charts are showing a largely zonal pattern which is the default for the uk, just with a couple of chilly days thrown in that most are focusing on whilst ignoring the bigger picture. hey thats ok, its just that in summer when we have a projected spanish plume that ends up being a 24-36 hour affair i dont celebrate that...in fact i find that frustrating. cold for colds sake?...nah im all or nothing on that front. gimmie a stonking great blizzard or it may as well be mild.

[Summer Sun]

Many thanks Fergie great to have your input and as a coldie I do hope it firms up and your past performance of calling it right for mild this year and last year continues when it might be something different.

 

No pressure.

 

Could yourself or a mod make the text bigger? It difficult to read

 

EDIT

 

Thanks Polar Maritime

Edited December 8, 2014 by Summer Sun
There you go Gav..

[Gavin Hannah]

 

the charts are showing a largely zonal pattern which is the default for the uk, just with a couple of chilly days thrown in that most are focusing on whilst ignoring the bigger picture. hey thats ok, its just that in summer when we have a projected spanish plume that ends up being a 24-36 hour affair i dont celebrate that...in fact i find that frustrating. cold for colds sake?...nah im all or nothing on that front. gimmie a stonking great blizzard or it may as well be mild.

 

You may want to relocate to the a Scottish peak....   Glencoe Mt forecasted for whiteouts this week. 

[Hocus Pocus]

One thing that stands out for me with regards to Ian F post is on Saturday the MetO were confident that a Westerly regime would be with us for sometime, then yesterday that confidence started to dwindle and today we are seeing tentative signs of pattern change. I wonder what tomorrow will bring.

[fergieweather]

One thing that stands out for me with regards to Ian F post is on Saturday the MetO were confident that a Westerly regime would be with us for sometime, then yesterday that confidence started to dwindle and today we are seeing tentative signs of pattern change. I wonder what tomorrow will bring.

They still are (re westerly with colder incursions) into current 1-2 weeks. The prospect of change is later Dec. Just to be clear...

[Eugene]

They still are (re westerly with colder incursions) into current 1-2 weeks. The prospect of change is later Dec. Just to be clear...

 

 

Yep that's how I see it so hopefully we can avoid anything too mild before the pattern possibly changes, unfortunately these heralded pattern changes are prone to further delays one after another and before you know it its late February when most are looking for Spring, can see another exceptionally warm year next year so my advice to coldies is enjoy today and anything in the next month or so before solar output increases.

Edited December 8, 2014 by Eugene

[fergieweather]

PS: MOGREPS & 00z EC ENS stamps now agree on signs of westerly waning into trend period. Circa 40% now show some form of continental block.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

PS: MOGREPS & 00z EC ENS stamps now agree on signs of westerly waning into trend period. Circa 40% now show some form of continental block.

That is quite frankly excellent news for most on here :-)

[kate1]

Good news today from Recretos in the Strat thread too - I have huge respect for the regular posters in there - finally things do appear to be on the point of falling tentatively into place...

[A.J]

yes, strat warming is in play, added to Fergie's update certainly gives a more upbeat feeling for the coming weeks.....who knows maybe some of us further south might yet see that white christmas? 

[MPG]

 

 

gfsna-0-300.png gfsnh-1-300.png

 

IMO that's where any December's cold will come from.

From PM air, 12 days away? Well good luck with that, are you sure part of the PV will be sat over Greenland come then?

[mushymanrob]

You may want to relocate to the a Scottish peak....   Glencoe Mt forecasted for whiteouts this week. 

 

i dont care what scottish mountains get!!! lol it might as well snow until september up there (modified carol king referrance there..)

 

i hate this type of northwesterly.... its possibly the worst weather type of all. it has nothing to offer other then a fleeting glimpse of sun in between the frequent showers. now that would be nice IF the clouds were towering cumulo nimbus...but they arent, they are just great grey blobs delivering cold wet rain. doesnt look as my luck is in this week then does it! lol

Edited December 8, 2014 by mushymanrob

[SnowObsessor90]

The whole 'waxing and waning' thing has been mentioned several times by the more knowledgeable amongst us, time will tell....

[snow freak]

i can't believe my daffodils are beginning to sprout and its not even midwinter yet.  The British winters are becoming more and more mundane and boring and we get all hyped up with the prospect of the slightest cold forecast only to be dashed and disappointed at the last minute.  As for model watching, that seems a complete waste of time and i can't see the point if they keep swapping and changing which obviously they will do.  I have resigned myself to nothing to boring winters from now on in this country.  I used to love the weather but i just can't get interested in months and months of the same uninteresting weather we get here. 

[Frosty_wsm]

sorry but have you not seen the model runs. We have a big storm heading our way on the gfs ukmo ECM gem with damaging winds and heavy rain for much of this week not great to be honest.

Yes but what we're not seeing, not yet anyway, is storm after storm lining up to give us deluge after deluge with damaging winds like we had for most of last winter and that's what the other poster was on about.

[snowtimenow]

Nothing exciting happening here in the east mids, rather boring as per

[Mapantz]

Sorry, but did you not look out of your window for most of the last week or so. It was mostly dry and very frosty here and infact, for a lot of the country. This year, not only hemispherically speaking, but synoptically and at the surface our weather conditions have been virtually the polar opposite (not point intended) of those last year. It's nothing like mild, it's been very frosty and it's been predominantly quiet on the weather front since the beginning of November. All in all our conditions currently, couldn't be anything like last year if they tried.

Actually, the start of December 2014 has been quite similar to 2013. It started off dry with frosts and fog and then a deep low hit Northern England. Things didn't really start kicking off until the middle of the month..

Just to add: You cannot tar my part of the world with the same thoughts. Just nine days ago, it hit 15°C The last week of November was entirely overcast, and an inch of rain fell. There's only been two ground frosts in the last two weeks, and it hasn't dropped below 0°C since November 6th

Edited December 8, 2014 by Mapantz

[PolarWarsaw]

Actually, the start of December 2014 has been quite similar to 2013. It started of dry with frosts and fog and then a deep low hit Northern England. Things didn't really start kicking off until the middle of the month..

Perhaps so, but the overall pattern - but consistently they've been nothing like similar. It hasn't been band of rain after band of rain, there has been frost, fog, calm, little rain. I don't even remember one single frost throughout last winter, although I did work away from some of it. Comparing this winter to last so far, is giving any newbie purely wrong information.

Edited December 8, 2014 by Paul

[Mapantz]

Perhaps so, but the overall pattern - but consistently they've been nothing like similar. It hasn't been band of rain after band of rain, there has been frost, fog, calm, little rain. I don't even remember one single frost throughout last winter, although I did work away from some of it. Comparing this winter to last so far, is giving any newbie purely wrong information.

It wasn't band after band of rain in the same time period last year. I'm not saying it's the same setup by any means, but the weather wasn't too bad up until the 14th of December.

[nick sussex]

First tentative whiff of height rises over/near Greenland in EC 12z clusters beyond circa 21 Dec (and out to T+360) with resultant hints of possible northerly flow regime for UK. Baby-steps....We expect there to be a possible lag period before this sort of outcome emerges further in EC with any stronger definition, but still too far off to warrant anything 'excitable' by way of forum reaction, I stress.

To use a film analogy and from one of my favourite old films the fantastic Invasion of the Body Snatchers b&w version, you play the Kevin McCarthy role, originally you turn up in this thread I sense wondering why all this hysteria about cold and snow with these weird adults who fall asleep and wake up loving cold and snow. I sense that we've finally got to you! You tried desperately to stay awake , desperate to remain professional and unmoved but the pod got you!

 

Now in the film instead of the whole town walking around with those pods in this instance they're all out queuing up waiting to buy assorted snow related gear including sledges.

 

I hope this doesn't descend into " whiffgate" because a whiff in here Ian could lead to scenes from Black Friday with hysterical snow lovers causing chaos.

 

I think and I hope I speak for everyone in here that you're a welcome addition to this thread and we appreciate your posts.

 

Lets hope this whiff turns into a stronger wind in the coming days!

[Yarmy]

Have to smile. Ian F drops a hint at VERY long range of POSSIBLE tentative Greenland height rises and stresses there's nothing to get excited about yet, but it generates dozens upon dozens of likes. (Not that I'm any different, an unrepentant weirdo :-))

[conor123]

Shock horror another north westerly downgrades into a Scotland only event with Saturday's isobars now flat as pancake aka -3 upper's at best and 7c come +00hrs, week off from chart viewing it is, we all know where it's going now.

[Banbury]

Shock horror another north westerly downgrades into a Scotland only event with Saturday's isobars now flat as pancake aka -3 upper's at best and 7c come +00hrs, week off from chart viewing it is, we all know where it's going now.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6617.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn9017.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn11417.gif

 

Looks chilly enough to me