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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

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Milhouse Seasoned

Milhouse

Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

If i hear it again about snow at the weekend from the media, especially local radio im gonna scream. Dont know if its a post Dec 2010 thing but the hype surrounding snow is much bigger than it used to be. The models suggest some wintry showers for NW facing coasts but thats it.

Edited by Milhouse
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

If i hear it again about snow at the weekend from the media, especially local radio im gonna scream. Dont know if its a post Dec 2010 thing but the hype surrounding snow is much bigger than it used to be. The models suggest some wintry showers for NW facing coasts but thats it.

 

So am I, especially as it filters through to people I know, and I keep saying there will not be snow next week, i say just for Scotland

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted

People around here (in dover) have been saying it's goner snow tonight most of the week, I think it's just how chilly the weather has been, compared to all the mild stuff we have had over here. People just think it is cold enough for snow + the wind direction. I've been saying no it's not cold enough higher up. 

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Barry12 Seasoned

Barry12

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

So am I, especially as it filters through to people I know, and I keep saying there will not be snow next week, i say just for Scotland

 

it'll snow over the pennines :diablo:

 

models would support this...

Edited by Barry95
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ukpaul Aficionado

ukpaul

Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

Looking at the EC32 clusters via Matt Hugo I can guarantee what will happen - I'm travelling by train to see family by 22nd December, if that transpires then I'm going to get nowhere near......

 

(Greenie and Scandi highs, that is).

 

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/540611151743426560

 

Bloomin' typical, can't you wait until January?!?

Edited by ukpaul
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Barry12 Seasoned

Barry12

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
Posted

Here's my prediction: A beautiful ECM in the morning, patience grasshoppers.

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fergieweather Maestro

fergieweather

Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
Posted

Looking at the EC32 clusters via Matt Hugo I can guarantee what will happen - I'm travelling by train to see family by 22nd December, if that transpires then I'm going to get nowhere near......

 

(Greenie and Scandi highs, that is).

 

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/540611151743426560

 

Bloomin' typical, can't you wait until January?!?

That's not today's EC32 (which touts a very different outcome).

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PolarWarsaw Seasoned

PolarWarsaw

Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
Posted

To be honest, it's been a little frustrating. Whilst the atmosphere and weather puzzle is currently quite different to last year, in effect - it mays wel have been the same. At least last year was active. The stalemate has been increasingly dull and very frustrating for the best part of 6-7 weeks now. I'd sooner we had something of active interest. Despite some colder weather this week and the potential for some snow, as well as frost - the output seems to have been the same in terms of snowy cold countrywide for a long period. It has become a little tiresome and you just hope that things don't become locked like this all winter - it would be awful.

 

On the flip side, we've already heard much better things about this winters prospects throughout this site, especially from the more 'trusted' members when it comes to sensible thinking and experienced forecasting. We've also had colder weather this week than we did in the entire of last winter - I don't remember a frost.

 

I think everything that sums the current output up...Steve Murr has posted once in the MOD thread this week and it was only an explanation to Knocker on axis/tilt for low pressure...if he can't be bothered to muster up anything towards the output contribution then nothing of even remote interest in the cards IMO. 

 

Plenty of time left though.

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ukpaul Aficionado

ukpaul

Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
Posted

So they change daily, surely not as that would make them as useful as +384 on the GFS?

 

Which is why I posted it in the moan/ramp thread!

 

For those who persist in posting 384h charts in the mod thread, I think they'd be better off having a drink and waiting for a week or two!

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Iceaxecrampon Veteran

Iceaxecrampon

Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
Posted

The supercomputer is getting some work done to it, it will be back for the 12z on Monday

 

In the meantime they are using this.

 

post-6879-0-44418000-1417776821_thumb.jp

 

Ian

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

matt tweeted from yesterdays 12z ecm ens. that s not the ec32 which updates tues am and fri am from runs the previous day initiated noon.

 

havent seen any ec32 cluster comments for week 3 and 4 so cant comment further. (though is supect they arent of any cold interest or ian would have told us)

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

God I hate when people have to resort to personal remarks. Sorry if my earlier comments didn't go down too well but I'm feeling under the weather today. My general view of things model wise is positive compared to what we endured in November so it does look relatively wintry to what has gone before..I hope we all get some snow in the run up to Christmas.:-)

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Barry12 Seasoned

Barry12

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
Posted

God I hate when people have to resort to personal remarks. Sorry if my earlier comments didn't go down too well but I'm feeling under the weather today. My general view of things model wise is positive compared to what we endured in November so it does look relatively wintry to what has gone before..I hope we all get some snow in the run up to Christmas.:-)

 

You were positive yesterday Frosty, and things haven't changed much today. In fact, the ECM looks better today than it did yesterday. There is definitely going to be snow at low level in Scotland during this coming week, and who knows maybe the North of England. Surprise snowfalls do happen :)

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Thanks for the feedback guys. Hopefully I will be back to normal tomorrow.

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joggs Experienced

joggs

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
Posted

Thanks for the feedback guys. Hopefully I will be back to normal tomorrow.

Chin up Frosty,ive just flicked through the archive charts of dec20th 1962 to the very end of that winter lol.Cheered me up no end.some of the set up back then had differences but little high pressures formed in the right plces and deflected lows and things just snowballed.Not saying that will happen :rofl:  but jet tracking further south and pv modelled to lose its grip up nw,you never know. It can happen just like that and make fools of all inc mo etc :cold:

Right on to 1946/47 :drunk:

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joggs Experienced

joggs

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
Posted (edited)

Also in the archives jan 20 1986 onwards is uncanny to this coming week and beyond :rofl:  :cold:  :bomb: 

Edited by joggs
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)

I do love a good ramp so here we go.

 

cfsnh-0-540.png?12

cfsnh-0-666.png?12

cfsnh-0-792.png?12

cfsnh-2-804.png?12

 

*sweats profusely*

Edited by SN0WM4N
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snowice Seasoned

snowice

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Posted

Well 18z rolling out fingers crossed it follows 12z this board could go into meltdown tomorrow hope the servers can cope.

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted

I do love a good ramp so here we go.

 

cfsnh-0-540.png?12

cfsnh-0-666.png?12

cfsnh-0-792.png?12

cfsnh-2-804.png?12

 

*sweats profusely*

Might need at least two, if not more, boxes of straws to clutch at for this...
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snowice Seasoned

snowice

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Posted

Might need at least two, if not more, boxes of straws to clutch at for this...

I always think of the line in the polar express 'BELIEVE'
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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted

Might need at least two, if not more, boxes of straws to clutch at for this...

 

Or even better, clutch these to bring a taste of winter to you in real-time.

 

post-15172-0-65202000-1417819804_thumb.j

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted (edited)

I always think of the line in the polar express 'BELIEVE'

A great Christmas film, that. I think the cold and snow fans have a lot to believe in with regards to the mainly cool/cold and fairly wintry outlook illustrated on the models next week (and maybe beyond). At least, also, reading the recent post from FergieWeather in the other model thread does suggest possible chilly outbreaks from the North. Certainly possible if amplification of heights can be achieved to the West next week and help allow Lows to drop to our East. The journey on that Polar Express for us this Winter could definitely be quite an enthralling one.

Or even better, clutch these to bring a taste of winter to you in real-time.

Edit: attachicon.gifice-straw-maker.jpg

Those sound like much more interesting straws to clutch on than the plain ordinary ones. :-o

(Extra edit: apologies about that double post. Was meant to have added the quote from above into this post).

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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