Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Often seems to be a problem when a Northerly gets modelled in FI. Too few many obstacles get in the way to make them reach the 0 hour mark in one piece!

Occasionally, the cold and snow fans might get lucky with one, but the mission to try get a potent Artic Maritime flow to plunge the whole of the UK seems like a failed one (and sometimes only really the Northern UK benefit). But I suppose you still can't entirely rule out anything later on this week, and the general pattern still seems to be there to see some kind of cool flow between the West and North. Plus, the Met Office FAX chart still shows the occluded front on Friday being embedded in 500 - 1000hPa thickness of 528, which may give something wintry to places. (But will probably no doubt change on the next update).

Edit: Apologies, the below image is actually the most recent updated version of the FAX chart on that day (having discovered the updated chart from Mark N in the other model thread). One above now out of date. Still shows a similar theme, but with the 528 thickness line a little further North.

Edited December 8, 2014 by DiagonalRedLine
To change incorrect orientation of the image.

[danthetan]

All change tomorrow guys, different outcomes and charts maybe not trends......... chins up I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad

[Fozfoster]

Thank god we have a nw / se jet with polar maritime and borderline arctic incursions for the foreseeable future..after last month's dull mild stalemate, this is a good start.

yeah but after so long with not a lot to shout about us coldies deserve something.

[kate1]

Fozfoster, it's still only 8th December…. some things are (hopefully) worth waiting for! There are quite a few positive signals for good news later on - yes, perhaps we may have to wait until January to see anything worthwhile - and nothing is guaranteed - but with a number of experienced and very knowledgeable posters telling us that something may be coming in a few weeks, I for one am still feeling very positive...

[Fozfoster]

Fozfoster, it's still only 8th December…. some things are (hopefully) worth waiting for! There are quite a few positive signals for good news later on - yes, perhaps we may have to wait until January to see anything worthwhile - and nothing is guaranteed - but with a number of experienced and very knowledgeable posters telling us that something may be coming in a few weeks, I for one am still feeling very positive...

yeah your right but we have been waiting 13 months + I am getting old and I want snow!!!

[kate1]

I'm as old as you (give or take a few months!) and I know how you feel! - but I think we will get there this year… what do we oldsters say? - 'I feel it in my bones…' - but seriously, unlike last winter, there are background signals, and v. knowledgeable posters, indicating that things are pointing in the right direction. 

[Fozfoster]

I'm as old as you (give or take a few months!) and I know how you feel! - but I think we will get there this year… what do we oldsters say? - 'I feel it in my bones…' - but seriously, unlike last winter, there are background signals, and v. knowledgeable posters, indicating that things are pointing in the right direction.

haha your right but feel like we have been saying this for far to long .......I will come back to you end of winter!!!

[weather_it_will]

We need to break out of this W/NW flow system to achieve any chance of proper deep cold reaching central England.

The GEFS ensembles, currently do not offer anything majorly different to what we have now for the next 7 days.

 

[Weather-history]

The mods/admin must be fed up trying to supervise that thread.

Maybe the mods can try out the Thing (troll) test? Edited December 9, 2014 by Paul
Bit of dodgy language on the video/title!

[Summer Sun]

GFS is such a tease

 

[Carl46Wrexham]

Fozfoster, it's still only 8th December…. some things are (hopefully) worth waiting for! There are quite a few positive signals for good news later on - yes, perhaps we may have to wait until January to see anything worthwhile - and nothing is guaranteed - but with a number of experienced and very knowledgeable posters telling us that something may be coming in a few weeks, I for one am still feeling very positive...

Away from me déjà vu!

[Milhouse]

Well todays weather has been foul with a raw wind and slate grey skies. Looking at the models its much of the same for the next 5 days then some milder incursions pushing in as we go out to day 10. The means at day 10 reflect the likelihood for milder uppers to edge in.

 

 

[mcweather]

I know some posters find it difficult when nothing particularly easterly or snowy is showing in the models, and some of you are probably heartily sick of old hands like myself telling you that patience is the watchword but it is worth remembering that the winter of 63 didn't really get properly cold until 23rd Dec which at the moment is well beyond the reliable timeframe.

 

Also the snowiest winter of the last 200 years namely 1947 didn't get cold and snowy until the 21st January.

So just hang in there.

[JoeShmoe]

May not be deep cold but fantastic weather up here this week, storms , showers, thunder, hail and snow !

[knocker]

I know some posters find it difficult when nothing particularly easterly or snowy is showing in the models, and some of you are probably heartily sick of old hands like myself telling you that patience is the watchword but it is worth remembering that the winter of 63 didn't really get properly cold until 23rd Dec which at the moment is well beyond the reliable timeframe.

 

Also the snowiest winter of the last 200 years namely 1947 didn't get cold and snowy until the 21st January.

So just hang in there.

 

Well as a young hand I find it totally incredible that anyone would wish for a repeat of the winter of 62-3. Reading this sort of comment I must admit I do have have serious concerns regarding the mental stability of some in this area, Still "Hope Springs Eternal"

Charts weatherbell

 

Oh and a quote from Matt Hugo 20 minutes ago.

 

It's looking increasingly unlikely we'll see any sig pattern change until at least Xmas. Xmas, as a result could well be mild.

Edited December 10, 2014 by knocker

[snowblizzard]

Models/charts beginning to indicate that Azores high is likely to drift East ridging into SW Europe!

Disastrous news for cold/snow lovers because that pattern will be difficult to shift and could possibly stick around for weeks on end!

Edited December 10, 2014 by snowblizzard

[Hocus Pocus]

Well as a young hand I find it totally incredible that anyone would wish for a repeat of the winter of 62-3. Reading this sort of comment I must admit I do have have serious concerns regarding the mental stability of some in this area, Still "Hope Springs Eternal"

Charts weatherbell

 

Oh and a quote from Matt Hugo 20 minutes ago.

The very same can be said for any extreme though, so I for one would find anyone wanting a repeat of the summer of 76 incredible due the  amount of death related incidents in such conditions. Of course this is a weather forum and different posters like different types of weather, some of them being extreme. Who'd have thought it in a weather forum eh! 

[mushymanrob]

the models are trending towards a less cold outlook, beyond the weekend. the azores high returns home and looks like sitting there for some time.

there is of course no reason why this winter wont be dominated by the atlantic, and most of december looks currently like that, so im not so sure those putting a 'possitive spin' on cold potential are doing cold fans any favours. the current colder spell has been downgraded from what potential for cold it showed just days ago.

now totally unscientific, but going off previous cold winters, they always seem to under estimate cold spells and it ends up being a more amplified spell then what was expected. so far this season we have seen early northern blocking that was spun as the harbinger of an early cold spell, with several dates being championed as 'the' date the pattern change ensues. we then had the eastern blocking later in november that was going to give us an early blast of eastern cold, this too failed to materialise despite some very eloquent and plausible arguments being made for another pattern change to cold.

then theres this one that could and was expected to be potentially a decent little cold spell. this too now looks like being nothing to write home about.

of course, objectively, any one of these events could have lead to an early wintry spell. but didnt. to me that suggests that this winter might be one where the potential is never fullfilled. ok, im no lover of the cold, but likes a good blizzard, to me its all or nothing. ok...theres another 80 days of winter to go, and im NOT writing winter off, there are plenty of time for a major pattern change to produce a wintry spell..... on the other hand it might just not happen, and the rest of winter might fail to produce anything particually wintry, and going off what weve had so far.... well.... i wont be placing any money on us getting a wintry spell!

[knocker]

The very same can be said for any extreme though, so I for one would find anyone wanting a repeat of the summer of 76 incredible due the  amount of death related incidents in such conditions. Of course this is a weather forum and different posters like different types of weather, some of them being extreme. Who'd have thought it in a weather forum eh! 

 

Oh I agree entirely. From a meteorological angle extremes are exceedingly interesting but purely from a practical weather aspect interest seems to become equated with obsession.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Well as a young hand I find it totally incredible that anyone would wish for a repeat of the winter of 62-3. Reading this sort of comment I must admit I do have have serious concerns regarding the mental stability of some in this area, Still "Hope Springs Eternal"

Charts weatherbell

 

Oh and a quote from Matt Hugo 20 minutes ago.

I'd rather be mental than a grumpy old sod :-)

[knocker]

I'd rather be mental than a grumpy old sod :-)

 

I trust that's not the vulgar etymology of the term. I mean my username isn't Oscar.

Edited December 10, 2014 by knocker

[TonyH]

Makes me laugh how during Winter we seem to be constantly poised for something better potentially at 10-12 days

Edited December 10, 2014 by TonyH

[mushymanrob]

Makes me laugh how during Winter we seem to be constantly poised for something better potentially at 10-12 days

 

 lol... my thoughts exactly!

 

by better do you mean milder and dry?...

[marksiwnc]

UK Outlook for Thursday 25 Dec 2014 to Thursday 8 Jan 2015:

The last week of December will most likely stay unsettled and often windy with weather systems arriving from the west or northwest. It is likely that the UK will see cloudy periods with spells of rain, but that these will probably be interspersed by clearer and colder conditions with showers, which could turn wintry at times, mainly in the north. The most unsettled conditions are likely to be in the north and west. However, there is a signal that conditions may become colder particularly into the New Year, although the is a large amount of uncertainty surrounding this. Temperatures are expected be around average for the time of year, the may turn colder than normal in the New Year.

Updated at: 0244 on Wed 10 Dec 2014

The part that it says it may turn colder into new years surely is good

[Yarmy]

Like the solitary, unloved purple one left behind in the Christmas tin of Quality Street...

 

 

...the unwanted purple lobe of low heights lingers over Greenland in the model output shifting around but never really moving, and long outstaying its welcome like fat Uncle Frank in the corner of your living room several days after Christmas increasing the ever-growing resentment and frustration of...I think that's enough.