Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[fromey]

I'm really sorry everyone, but I just couldn't help my self, I've done the un-thinkable and probably ruined every chance we had of snow next week.

 

So if it goes belly up you can blame me.

 

 

 

 

Just in-case your wondering what I've done...... I mentioned it's going to snow to everyone at work.

YOU DID WHAT NOW!!!

YOU SHOULD BE BANNED FROM THE FORUM, COUNTRY, PLANET!!!

NOW GO AWAY HANG YOUR HEAD IN SHAME AND THINK ABOUT WHAT YOU HAVE DONE!!!   LOL

 

FROMEY

[Gavin Hannah]

I think this describes most of us in here when chasing after that fabled Acorn. Or snow in our case lol.

 

[knocker]

Dreaming of a White Christmas?

 

With about a week to go before Christmas Day, we are going to look at the likelihood of a white Christmas – will we be waking up to a picturesque covering of snow on the big day?

 

So far, December has seen some large fluctuations in the weather, with spells of wetter, milder conditions interspersed with colder, sunnier conditions with temperatures closer to average.

 

This pattern looks set to continue over the next few days with some very mild but wet weather in places replaced by colder but sunnier weather by Friday with scattered showers. Similarly to recent days, any snow is likely to be restricted to higher ground across northern hills.

 

A return to largely mild weather is expected from Sunday (21^st), with cloudy, damp conditions for many parts. Throughout the period, northern Scotland is likely to stay somewhat colder with further wintry showers over higher ground.

 

As we head into Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty – which is as you’d expect this far out. The strongest signal currently shown in the computer models is for the colder, showery weather to return across Britain, with showers most frequent across the north and east. But will we see any snow?

 

At this point, the most likely areas that will see some of the white stuff will be across higher ground in the north, with rain at lower levels. Temperatures will be fairly close to average and there will be some frosty nights under clear skies.

 

It is important to note, however, that there’s still a chance we could see very different weather for Christmas Day. Here at the Met Office, we look at a range of computer model outcomes and a very small number of them do suggest a different picture, giving a forecast of stormy weather across the UK. Although this is currently at odds with the strongest signal from the forecast, we will closely monitor this and other possible solutions over the coming days to see if the likelihoods change. So with just over a week to go until Christmas Day, it looks most likely that the majority of us won’t be seeing a white Christmas. Because of the uncertainty of long range forecasts, however, we recommend staying up-to-date with our website for the latest information on our forecasts and warnings.

 

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/12/17/dreaming-of-a-white-christmas/

[The Eagle]

Gets there eventually but it's a very tedious and sterile sort of evolution.

[joggs]

YES.

 

You read my mind.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=2&month=12&hour=0&year=1981&map=4&mode=2

 

the GFS (P)

 

has sub -4c air in England from 162

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014121712/gfs-1-162.png?12

 

All the way until 348

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014121712/gfs-1-348.png?12

 

that's over 8 days.....

Simularities are amazing if that were to happen.Still along way to go,dont think I can view the next 3/4 days lol  

[Smiler1709]

At the moment still not much hope for us southerners, maybe abit cold but northerlys never produce for us, we really need a north easterly or a beastly to really freeze south of oxford line.

[hec1]

lol are we chasing cold that is in FI again?

 

[joggs]

At the moment still not much hope for us southerners, maybe abit cold but northerlys never produce for us, we really need a north easterly or a beastly to really freeze south of oxford line.

I would imagine the south would eventually get in on the action as the stream of lows crash against the rooted cold tbh.

[Snowman.]

Well if and that's a big IF we can keep this going let the southerners hope for a shift south of the pressure systems.

[mushymanrob]

You must always be prematurely excited then Mushy. . 

 

nah, im just really grumpy lol

 

YES.

 

You read my mind.

 

oh good god....

 

no steve, i read the charts and remember very well the events of december 81 (my fav winter, got abit chilly before a nice mild february )

[Smiler1709]

Thanks for the encouragement people, fingers crossed for us lot down here

[mushymanrob]

well if these runs keep up i dont think the mods are going to have a very merry crimbo!

[Tim Bland]

I just placed a 9/1 bet on a white xmas for Manchester (1 flake) it was 9/2 with a free match bet.  Get in there quick before news spreads and the odds tumble !  Thats £900 winnings for a £100 bet!

 

If the ECM plays ball and delivers something similar to the 00Z we should be odds on for a cold & Snowy spell between xmas and new year!

[snowangel32]

Not getting to excited yet until all mods are on board, and also at the moment its only really going to effect the north of the uk snow wise , unless we can get further upgrades and bring the whole of the UK into play I read on a earlier the post that the lows normally track further south is this true as I am sure everyone south of the north midlands hope this is the case.

[ronan]

Well the 12Z just rocked! The Greenland ridging is just not getting a chance to dig in so this will be an interesting period of model evolution for ther period between Xmas day and New year.

 

My esitmate for low level snow on Xmas day.. Scotland 60%, England 50%, Wales 50%

 

 

Those shortwaves developing off the north coast bringing lots of snowy goodness from boxing day onwards.

 

No estimate for NI? Last i checked it was in the UK?

[Gavin Hannah]

My bad Ronan lol, Probably gona give it 55%.

[MidnightSnow]

I just placed a 9/1 bet on a white xmas for Manchester (1 flake) it was 9/2 with a free match bet.  Get in there quick before news spreads and the odds tumble !  Thats £900 winnings for a £100 bet!

 

If the ECM plays ball and delivers something similar to the 00Z we should be odds on for a cold & Snowy spell between xmas and new year!

Where are you getting those odds mate? Best I can find is 7/2 for Manchester

[Spikecollie]

Am I allowed to be a party pooper?   I don't want snow over the Christmas period. I don't want gales or storms or anything remotely deviant from banal. We like tens of thousands of others are travelling over Christmas and we've been there and had that with the getaway chaos stories. This last year provided some of the grimmest travelling conditions you could have. I've seen too much genuine human misery out of this year in all respects to possibly wish for any more. Peace on earth and in the atmosphere too!

[James M]

It makes me chuckle that after all these years people are still putting F1

[Steve C]

Am I allowed to be a party pooper?   I don't want snow over the Christmas period. I don't want gales or storms or anything remotely deviant from banal. We like tens of thousands of others are travelling over Christmas and we've been there and had that with the getaway chaos stories. This last year provided some of the grimmest travelling conditions you could have. I've seen too much genuine human misery out of this year in all respects to possibly wish for any more. Peace on earth and in the atmosphere too!

 

Of course there isn't. You feel like the majority of the adult population in reality. I like snow and love to get out in it - especially if it's dry powdery stuff - but don't dislike people for having their own preferences.

 

This is one of the most annoying things about this site in the Winter imho (as well as cry babies and toy chuckers) - the amount of snide comments I've seen over the years towards people who like mild winters.

[John Snow]

Am I allowed to be a party pooper?   I don't want snow over the Christmas period. I don't want gales or storms or anything remotely deviant from banal. We like tens of thousands of others are travelling over Christmas and we've been there and had that with the getaway chaos stories. This last year provided some of the grimmest travelling conditions you could have. I've seen too much genuine human misery out of this year in all respects to possibly wish for any more. Peace on earth and in the atmosphere too!

With the greatest of respect why do you use a snow forum if you hate snow?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12Z GFS may be exciting but its all in FI, I certainly do not expect cold when this far out, so many times it's gone tits up

[NorthYorksWeather]

It makes me chuckle that after all these years people are still putting F1

 

Im pretty sure knocker made a mistake there, its usually only tinybill that puts F1 but hes been told so many times i think he does it just to wind people up.

Just seen the 12z ensembles, immediatley checked the control run and oh my days what a thing of beauty, a shortwave moving southwards with -10 uppers warpped around it. Shame its t2726251 tho

[Milhouse]

With the greatest of respect why do you use a snow forum if you hate snow?

 

A snow forum! well theres a first. I thought it was to discuss all weathers, likes and dislikes.

[Captain Shortwave]

With the greatest of respect why do you use a snow forum if you hate snow?

It's not a snow forum, it's a weather forum so people are welcome with all kinds of likes and dislikes, from cold to hot, from thunderstorms to clear sunny days.