Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[MidnightSnow]

Least everyone can travel around the Xmas period now

I'd rather be snowed in with no electricity

[Smiler1709]

I'd rather be snowed in with no electricity

Hahaha fair one

[knocker]

30-day evaluation period for upgrade GFS model will end next week, Dec. 23rd. Proposed implementation to operations -- January 14, 2015

[stewfox]

Good model agreement , scary charts

Edited December 18, 2014 by stewfox

[BlueHedgehog074]

Good model agreement , scary charts

(Lol) That's a good match.

[Danielvn]

I think far too many get carried away with eye candy charts at +264 plus and then when we get closer to said event people get despondent because a shortwave has been picked up on. A few posters kept it to the realms of logic and highlighted the perils and pitfalls as well as what  the "not so popular" model runs were touting. 

 

The problem also seems that people cherry pock the models that give them what they want to.

[MidnightSnow]

PATIENCE! it's only November it's not even winter yet!

PATIENCE! it's December, back in my day winter didn't start until Dec 21st!

PATIENCE! February is notoriously cold in the UK!

PATIENCE! March can sometimes bring heavy snow!

PATIENCE! It will be winter 2015/2016 before you know it!

PATIENCE! it's only November it's not even winter yet!

... to be continued

[stewfox]

PATIENCE! it's only November it's not even winter yet!

PATIENCE! it's December, back in my day winter didn't start until Dec 21st!

PATIENCE! February is notoriously cold in the UK!

PATIENCE! March can sometimes bring heavy snow!

PATIENCE! It will be winter 2015/2016 before you know it!

PATIENCE! it's only November it's not even winter yet!

... to be continued

 

Its that pesky short wave in FI (Fantasy Island) apparently that's causing problems today. Supporting chart attached

 

We need to see better long wave activity to deliver

Edited December 18, 2014 by stewfox

[Mokidugway]

Snow ,no snow ,snow ,no snow , get on a bloody plane and go to Lapland !!!!!!.....

[kate1]

For those losing heart/throwing toys, I suggest you go and have a little look at the Strat thread - a very encouraging post in there tonight from one of NW's most knowledgeable contributors. 

[snowangel32]

For those losing heart/throwing toys, I suggest you go and have a little look at the Strat thread - a very encouraging post in there tonight from one of NW's most knowledgeable contributors.

I know but we are all snow starved lol, there are some good background signals but its never a cert to bring cold and snow to our little shores

[TonyH]

Unfortunately an SSW is no guarantee and vice versa.

[knocker]

Might have to put the beach barby back a couple of days.

 

[Timmytour]

The signals are all in place

The trouble is they are not on the same track that the weather is travelling on....

It's got a very similar feel to 2012/2013 so far this winter

[terrier]

Slightly off topic do apologise mods. But intresting tweet from Ian Ferguson this morning. Forecast upto xmas seems good. But then goes onto tweet much colder and below average into new year with servere weather possible. Now read into that what u will.

[Gavin Hannah]

Wow, in 24 hours it's all gone all pete tong on the charts for the Xmas  to New year Period......  Where did I put those anti-depresants??

 

 

         

[Downpour]

Well looks like Exeter prefer the ECM to GFS judging by Ian F's tweet of a somewhat festive nature this morning.

[Steve C]

Well looks like Exeter prefer the ECM to GFS judging by Ian F's tweet of a somewhat festive nature this morning.

 

Well he talks about expected colder than average between Christmas and New Year, but I think his main focus is on possible severe weather in terms of deep lows and strong winds.

 

https://twitter.com/fergieweather

[knocker]

My thought for the day is that 'tweet' should be booted straight into the swear filter. At the very least punters would then have to waste time coming up with a euphemism for it.

[mushymanrob]

lucky the trade descriptions act doesnt apply to weather watching, well known cold rampers would be in serious trouble!

promises of pattern changes, snow over crimbo, below average cet's for december, etc have /will probably all come to nothing. lesson?... dont believe the hype! (even if its what you want to hear)

[Frosty_wsm]

With the big swings we're seeing in the models right now, anyone over in the mod thread who posts saying they know what the outcome will be are talking out of their backside quite frankly lol.

Will be fascinating to watch this play out in the models over the coming days.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

seems like to me, all we'll get is a toppler around 28th-29th, then back to zonal normality, last few GFS runs shown this in FI

 

I usually feel FI will come off if showing mild, but never when showing cold, maybe because mild is more common than cold

[Barry12]

That Met Office outlook is brilliant :w00t:

 

If that outlook is correct we should surely be seeing upgrades in the models over the coming days :smiliz19:

[weatherguy]

 

Plenty of potential here as the Canadian lobe packs its bags and heads to Scandanavia...

[AWD]

That Met Office outlook is brilliant :w00t:

 

If that outlook is correct we should surely be seeing upgrades in the models over the coming days :smiliz19:

Good for the North, pretty non descript for the south.

Detail like that will however ebb and flow at this conjecture. Enjoy who, if anyone, that cops it.