Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[conor123]

This December's topped off one of the most boring weather years I can remember here, not bothered viewing the charts in a week and after reading the posts today I need not bother until January.

Testing times for weather enthusiasts, thank goodness Spring and early Summer was decent at least.

[Wilxy]

Hello I would just like to point out over the last week or so its been very difficult to find any consistency in the models which is why people shouldn't look beyond 144h to seriously, its better to look for a trend in the 144-168h, I have seen time and time again where everyone will get there hopes up only for things to look very different once it is brought forward into a more reliable timeframe, It won't be easy for a model to show shortwaves past 144h, a few years ago the models were predicting a easterly due to a block to are NE and was showing very consistently in the models all the way to the 72h timeframe, then one evening the GFS was showing a sudden surge off energy going over the block to the NE which collapsed and gave way to South Westerly winds, many thought it was a progressive outliner and then the rest of the models backtracked towards the GFS it was a big shock as so many were getting ready for a surge of cold air from the east and yet to this day the lessons are not being learnt.

 

I think we all need to sit back and continue to watch what the models do in the shorter timeframe as we still can't get the track of this low correctly until that is resolved there really is no point in looking beyond it as the evolution will look different dependent on whether this low wants to sink down the north sea or track more west to east.

[DAVID SNOW]

Anyway  over on the MOD thread  West is best is still back: and he is posting his thoughts  As for the GFS , well it looks like the GFS.

 

 

not sure how? But I recon some could start an argument in a Nunnery...... :w00t:

[Abyss]

Move along now, nothing to see here. Come back in January.

I still fail to see where the evidence for optimism sprung from. Maybe people are beginning to subconsciously become brainwashed by the likes of Jimmy Maddman's ramblings, because of course he says doesn't use the models! ;-)

ECM is king and has stuck to its guns. If I were a betting man I would go for a Rosenbloom northerly shift in the 27th's storm track. Too far north and too much modification for a proper snow event, apart from the north.

Yea, I feel like I've just wasted a week of my life. Back in January for me. Good luck to all the hardy souls that remain

[Dale Leigh_6487]

Wow the models r like yo yo's

Somthing will give soon . Merry Christmas to all on Net weather

[Muffelchen]

Models are pathetic at the moment but you need to ask why? Presumably there is something going on that is not easily modelled, i.e. something that has not been programmed into the algorithms. It is this that is causing the problems and something must have dramatically over-ridden the previous signals in the last 24 hours to cause the massive changes in the model forecasts today and the dropping of the Greeny heights

. What this is it would be really interesting to find out and I am sure the modellers will be hard at work on this over the next few weeks/months/years. It is only by learning the lessons of these unusual circumstances that the models can be perfected for the future, leading to better forecasting.

 

I am not a modeller, nor do I work with computers but this is what I think is happening. Time will tell but, even though we don't know what the result is yet at this stage, the next few days should be very interesting.

[mushymanrob]

To the above post

Dont be ridiculous! How can the models be pathetic? Highly organised, upto date scientific data sources predicting or trying to predict a highly volatile atmospheric evolution pathetic?

They struggle to get a handle on it, so what? In time data will become more accurate to predict difficult situations.

Its unclear, its not cold, get over it.

[ditch]

Looking at the models, I cannot see any long term cold this year! I maybe totally wrong but the weather is set in a pattern that will take a lot to shift. I've just travelled back from Birmingham to Shropshire and the outside temperature is reading 13 degrees at 10pm!!......being a lover of cold weather this mild mush is driving me crazy!

[Mucka]

Huge run to run variation in the upstream pattern.

18z/12z GFS

 

 

Hard to know what to expect tomorrow.

 

Parallel a little more consistent with this afternoon but with enhanced cold prospects

 

Edited December 21, 2014 by Mucka

[I remember Atlantic 252]

better 00Z's, except for ukmo which could well end up right, little if any snow for the south, but cold with mainly high pressure on ECM and GFS/GFSP

 

today surely mind you is autumn? 11.0C and windy, not really winter is it

[AWD]

So these EC ens/clusters.

From what I gather, they show a predominantly mild South westerly regime with a cluster of cold options bringing the -10hpa isotherm towards us and the spreads are too high to use the mean as guidance.

Got that? Me neither!

[Hocus Pocus]

It's been a frustrating month for cold lovers and in all honesty it's not much better than last year, sure it's not as stormy but aside from that the similarities are there. As for the rest of this winter my gut feeling says January will carry on with the same theme of alternating TM and RPM, with February being the driest month but also mild with a block to the East tantalisingly close but not close enough leaving us under  a Southerly regime for much of the month. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

It's been a frustrating month for cold lovers and in all honesty it's not much better than last year, sure it's not as stormy but aside from that the similarities are there. As for the rest of this winter my gut feeling says January will carry on with the same theme of alternating TM and RPM, with February being the driest month but also mild with a block to the East tantalisingly close but not close enough leaving us under  a Southerly regime for much of the month. 

 

slightly worse Dec if anything, i had sleet/wet snow 4 days last Dec, this year just a 5 minute sleet shower early on 8th, this Dec seems to feel milder as well

[weather_it_will]

The current models are showing more like late autumn than winter weather.

 

 

The winter of 1947 did not start properly until 21st January, so there is still some hope.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

The current models are showing more like late autumn than winter weather.

 

 

The winter of 1947 did not start properly until 21st January, so there is still some hope.

 

kept hearing that last year, most of the south didn't have a flake of snow

[Hocus Pocus]

The current models are showing more like late autumn than winter weather.

 

 

The winter of 1947 did not start properly until 21st January, so there is still some hope.

Lol that old chestnut gets wheeled out most years, I hope we do as the last few winters have been pants around these parts.

[Richard Taylor]

Coming from statistically (so I'm led to believe!) the UK's snowiest city historically, I tend to keep a keen eye on the weather, although I'm no model expert!

 

But it's incredibly hard to predict what is going on just now with models disagreeing with each other run to run so vehemently, disagreeing with themselves run to run so drastically & forecasting everything from SW'lys from the Caribbean, Scandi High, Greenie High (then no Greenie High!), ScEuro High, northern blocking, and so it goes!        

 

TEITS has mentioned seagulls in the Model Thread, and as we have plenty of those, I'll watch what they do too. If they're on the roof, then weather will be benign mainly; on the ground, then a tad inclement. If they disappear, then I know a storm is a-coming!!    

[Mark Bayley]

For all those disappointed with this mornings runs, run through this beauty, we can all dream...      :smiliz19:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=1&mode=0&carte=0

 

(sadly on its own)

Edited December 22, 2014 by Mark Bayley

[Shunter]

I think the (lack ) of comment from seasoned professionals on this forum or elsewhere today highlights the current status Quo in its entirety ....nobody has any degree of confidence in the mrf for Western Europe after Boxing Day.....so not prepared to "stick their heads up over the parapet" for fear of retribution or loss of credibility !

 

It just goes to show with all the best minds and supercomputers nobody can really forecast the weather for our shores any better than they did 40 or 50 years ago bar the "Zonal express scenarios". 

[mushymanrob]

I think the (lack ) of comment from seasoned professionals on this forum or elsewhere today highlights the current status Quo in its entirety ....nobody has any degree of confidence in the mrf for Western Europe after Boxing Day.....so not prepared to "stick their heads up over the parapet" for fear of retribution or loss of credibility !

 

It just goes to show with all the best minds and supercomputers nobody can really forecast the weather for our shores any better than they did 40 or 50 years ago bar the "Zonal express scenarios". 

 

sorry old chap i dont agree with you there. 'we' or 'they' certainly do predict the weather more accurately then they did 40-50 years ago. just because we have a turbulent blip currently the rest of the year has been great and reasonably accurate out to two weeks.

and 'seasoned professionals' are here, its just the cold lovers that arent

[supernova]

Ladies and gentlemen,

 

It is with great pleasure I introduce to you the GFS and it's improved cousin, the GFS Parallel.

There will also be no requirement for model watchers on this forum to show any kind of skill, experience or knowledge from this point forwards. Instead you may consider yourselves all to be a...

Still, could be worse, all models could be unanimous in their agreement for the sort of mild filth we had to ensure last year. Instead, however inconsistently, some are showing the potential for interest and at least a chance of something that feels like winter. Bugger the iPad, I know what I'm asking Santa for...

(The snow in her hands, obviously)

[Buxton Codge]

Hi,

Its not just the UK that is suffering a snow drought. My friend in Germany has seen no snow this Autumn and Winter so far and temperatures are well above average. Also a similar scene in New York City with no snow this December.

Maybe it will all turn around in January

[Cloud 10]

can somebody please press the go button on the UKMO+144 

 

Someone's working on it now...

 

[Allseasons-Si]

can somebody please press the go button on the UKMO+144 

 

The met o are having a quick break here

 

 

 

:smiliz39:

 

looking post 72-96 hrs,well,i stop there,there is so much divergance from there on in.

Edited December 22, 2014 by Allseasons-si

[snowblizzard]

Still massive uncertainty in the models, but there still doesn't look to be any obvious route to a proper cold/snowy set-up for UK! 

I still believe that we will be 'stuck' in this West to East flow TM/PM mild/cool for many weeks to come!

This type of set-up always seems so difficult to shift.

Indications that the PV may become more organised over NE Canada and the absence of any deep cold over NW Europe only makes the situation worse.

Almost 1/3 into the season and I'm fearing the worst for this winter!

Edited December 23, 2014 by snowblizzard