Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Banbury]

Not sure if JH was around then  but ...

 

However lets face if for most Dec 2010 was once in a life time

 

but that's for December now need a once in a life time Jan 

Go have a look at Gavs vids on TWO, the 1981 winter one was a dream for both cold and snow

 

OT apologies

[Harsh Climate]

Not sure if JH was around then  but ...

 

However lets face if for most Dec 2010 was once in a life time

 

but that's for December now need a once in a life time Jan 

 

lol. Yes doubt we will ever see a Nov/Dec like that again but shawly we are due a big January/Februrary sooner or later : )

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Feel 06Z is an outlier, it looks great, virtually snowless for south, but massive improvement in FI, very cold with high pressure

 

hopefully a trend, but fearing 12Z's will go back to zonal

[cyclonic happiness]

A

lol. Yes doubt we will ever see a Nov/Dec like that again but shawly we are due a big January/Februrary sooner or later : )

annoying thing about the 2010 winter is that this area got no snow at all for 90% of the spell.

You want depression come and live in North Warwickshire.

we miss all interesting weather here, save maybe thunderstorms.

[Harsh Climate]

Aannoying thing about the 2010 winter is that this area got no snow at all for 90% of the spell.

You want depression come and live in North Warwickshire.

we miss all interesting weather here, save maybe thunderstorms.

 

Guess living slap bang in the centre of the country your less exposed from showers from the west AND east. I think your greatest snowfalls would come from A channel low that tracks quite far north, we not had one of them for a long time though lol..

[Harsh Climate]

Feel 06Z is an outlier, it looks great, virtually snowless for south, but massive improvement in FI, very cold with high pressure

 

hopefully a trend, but fearing 12Z's will go back to zonal

 

There are some pretty decent esembles (GEFS perturbation 4 for example)

 

 

Good wintry potential:

 

 

 

Then towards the end:

 

 

Going only one way, pressure heightening over scandinavia with a big easterly looming.

[shotski]

I do feel for some of the more senior posters on the MOD thread as it becomes apparent after a few years of following that we only have access to limited tools to use and forecast from. A good example was the outlook for after Xmas and into the new year. All the available data ,to us, was screaming mid Atlantic high leading to a greeny block and a decent looking cold spell. In general the ens were backing up the ops and the anomaly charts were also firming up on the idea but Ian Fergusson , who obviously has access to much much more information than us ,was adamant that it was zonal based for the foreseeable and it looks like again it panned out that way. Again some of the posts I see are fantastic with the research that goes into them but we simply don't have the tools for the job. But it's all good fun anyway

Edited December 21, 2014 by shotski

[Timmytour]

As the potential for a cold winter period seems to get pushed further and further back, this is reminding me a little of 2012/3. Perhaps a cold February and March are beckoning?

Perhaps it isn't the models we should be examining but the stats!

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81498-an-unusual-august-and-september/

Edited December 21, 2014 by Timmytour

[Daniel*]

As the potential for a cold winter period seems to get pushed further and further back, this is reminding me a little of 2012/3. Perhaps a cold February and March are beckoning?Perhaps it isn't the models we should be examining but the stats! https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81498-an-unusual-august-and-september/

Slow your horses there's still 10 days left of December and then another 31 days of January. With the models struggling at Day6 there's not a hope in hell, you can eliminate a cold January - it does get tireding the constant upheaval but it will go in our favour. The 27th Dec storm could be the catalysts.

[Nath]

Go have a look at Gavs vids on TWO, the 1981 winter one was a dream for both cold and snow

 

OT apologies

Being 13 at the time,, that winter in London was the snowiest, coldest, most severe I have even seen, by a long way. I remember on 2 or 3 occasions It would start snowing in the early afternoon and just get heavier and heavier stopping all public transport, and most roads as well.

[SteveB]

I mentioned the other day that it would be Monday before we get a proper idea of what post Christmas weather would likely to be.

 

But it appears that even by Monday things might still be un-clear, and I think the reason why that is, is because of the unusual deep low predicted for the 27th. Until the models get a handle on the exact track there will be plenty more chopping and changing to come.

 

At least there's cold charts still on the table & we have the strat warming still to play for.

 

So for me there is still hope for a cold spell, and it might be sooner than we think.

[Banbury]

Aannoying thing about the 2010 winter is that this area got no snow at all for 90% of the spell.

You want depression come and live in North Warwickshire.

we miss all interesting weather here, save maybe thunderstorms.

Really??  we had 20 -25cm

[Harsh Climate]

I mentioned the other day that it would be Monday before we get a proper idea of what post Christmas weather would likely to be.

 

But it appears that even by Monday things might still be un-clear, and I think the reason why that is, is because of the unusual deep low predicted for the 27th. Until the models get a handle on the exact track there will be plenty more chopping and changing to come.

 

At least there's cold charts still on the table & we have the strat warming still to play for.

 

So for me there is still hope for a cold spell, and it might be sooner than we think.

 

 

All this talk about a SSW at the end of the year/early january now seems pretty unfounded/hopeful. Because the met office strongly hinted at this a month ago and showed the *chance of a more significant/notable cold spell at the end of the year* everyone and their dogs jumped on this SWW bandwagon   . But from looking at the met office longer outlook they seemed to have dropped this idea. Not to say there won't be a SSW late january or thereafter.. 

 

 

Also I only really look into forecasts from a select few on here, who back up there ideas with data and sound meteorologlical understanding, rather than 'I strongly expect a big cold spell on the turn of the year as I make my predictions/forecasts soley on *instinct*   .

Edited December 21, 2014 by Harsh Climate

[SteveB]

All this talk about a SSW at the end of the year/early january now seems pretty unfounded/hopeful. Because the met office strongly hinted at this a month ago and showed the *chance of a more significant/notable cold spell at the end of the year* everyone and their dogs jumped on this SWW bandwagon   . But from looking at the met office longer outlook they seemed to have dropped this idea. Not to say there won't be a SSW late january or thereafter.. 

You could be right, but with the models showing all  sorts of different options for the new year period over the last few day's, don't be surprised if the colder one's might start to reappear. 

 

I wouldn't give up on cold yet...

[Harsh Climate]

You could be right, but with the models showing all  sorts of different options for the new year period over the last few day's, don't be surprised if the colder one's might start to reappear. 

 

I wouldn't give up on cold yet...

 

Yes certainly, the option of a colder outlook is certainly on the table but regarding a SWW anytime in the next few weeks looks very unlikely. (commonly associated with mild air heading right up the west side of greenland with a greeny high developing.) 

 

Heres a perfect example:

 

[SteveB]

Yes certainly, the option of a colder outlook is certainly on the table but regarding a SWW anytime in the next few weeks looks very unlikely. (commonly associated with mild air heading right up the west side of greenland with a greeny high developing.) 

 

Heres a perfect example:

 

I might be wrong (and most probably am) but isn't the point of a SSW is that it's exactly that... Sudden. So it's not something that can be seen on the models ' circa 192/240hrs etc. but rather in subtle clues found while looking at the vortex it's self and any warming that is occurring.

Edited December 21, 2014 by SteveB

[Harsh Climate]

I might be wrong (and most probably am) but isn't the point of a SSW is that it's exactly that... Sudden. So it's not something that can be seen on the models ' circa 192/240hrs etc. but rather in subtle clues found while looking at the vortex it's self and any warming that is occurring.

 

I'm no expert on SSWs, but I think the 'sudden' in it is that when it happens it happens quickly?? Rather than they suddenly appear on the models. I think the met office knew about NOV 2010 SWW a good month before it happened, there monthly forecast suggested this way in advance (''turning much colder with threat of significant snow'' at the end of the forecast period) even when the models looked dire. And I do remember them nailing it tbh.

Edited December 21, 2014 by Harsh Climate

[SteveB]

I'm no expert on SSWs, but I think the 'sudden' in it is that when it happens it happens quickly?? Rather than they suddenly appear on the models. I think the met office new about NOV 2010 SWW a good month before it happened, there monthly forecast suggested this way in advance and I do remember them nailing it.

If that's the case, then what's being mentioned in the strat thread we might not need a SSW to get cold weather to our shores.

 

Lets see what the  12z's have in store.

[Muffelchen]

Yep, we seem to be having a lot of 'jam tomorrow' on the model thread this winter but, as soon as we get to T120 it seems to go the way of the pear and everything reverts back to the cool zonal regime we have been having for weeks. I posted my thoughts on this on the model thread earlier (as they are purely thoughts..) but the overall synoptics remain the same. Yes, there is the chance of a major Strat warming happening but that has been the case for a month or more now. Yes, there is the chance of a Greeny high forming but, almost as soon as the models firm up on that, it disappears in a cloud of model bias. The latest fad is an easterly but this assumes a lot of other pieces will fall into place, which they won't, so I don't see that happening either.

 

What I do see evidence for is a continuation of the current pattern of coolish, windy and wet weather (cool/cold zonality) and I can see nothing concrete in the next fortnight to change my view. I am not an expert but I have been looking at the models and reading the model thread for years with an objective eye. This eye, in spite of my subjective wishes for a period of cold, snowy weather, that this is probably not going to happen this winter now as we are running out of time. This does not mean we will not get any snow or cold: I believe that we will but this will of the transient, toppling variety that we are familiar with here in Yorkshire, rather than the deep cold we experienced in 2001 and 1982.

 

That said, I still live in hope..... :w00t:

[snowice]

Just seen gfs and gfsp I've seen enough iam off to get my snow shuffle!next Saturday looks like a snow feast for Ireland.

Edited December 21, 2014 by snowice

[Iceaxecrampon]

Next Saturday - after the past poor output and raised hope this should be interesting?

 

 

 

Not a chance was it?

 

 

Ian

[igloo]

i have always wondered  the reason for having the GFS parallele run is it to give it another bite of the cherry as to speak.the GFS operational seems to consistency be 1 day behind the EURO and other models for accuracy here is some examples.

 

 

al as flat as a pancake till you get to this 

 

Edited December 21, 2014 by igloo

[Barry12]

All the JAM is annoying now, the 'experts' on here write long detailed posts on why they expect a pattern change to cold but they seem to be pushing back there time frames for this continuously, first it was the middle of December, then the end of December, now into January...

 

From now on, unless the real experts, I.E Ian Fergusson/The Met Office are forecasting a cold spell I'm not going to believe anyone!

 

Also 'Patience' was the key word from last Winter, I'm still waiting to see proper cold and snow

Edited December 21, 2014 by Barry95

[MidnightSnow]

Next Saturday - after the past poor output and raised hope this should be interesting?

 

h500slp.png

 

uksnowrisk.png

 

Not a chance was it?

 

post-6879-0-82170500-1418110568.png

 

Ian

If that was to verify, would lower levels in the south see snow? Going by that snow risk chart, I'm guessing probably not?

[mushymanrob]

All the JAM is annoying now, the 'experts' on here write long detailed posts on why they expect a pattern change to cold but they seem to be pushing back there time frames for this continuously, first it was the middle of December, then the end of December, now into January...

 

From now on, unless the real experts, I.E Ian Fergusson/The Met Office are forecasting a cold spell I'm not going to believe anyone!

 

Also 'Patience' was the key word from last Winter, I'm still waiting to see proper cold and snow

.... And on this we agree barry! Indeed listen to the real experts because they are unbiased and wont lead you up the garden path.