Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[stainesbloke]

Merry Christmas to everyone on here!

[snow mad]

Merry Christmas to everyone. I'm starting to think this winter is going to slip by with no snow events as it is always jam tomorrow. Time is ticking by now and it won't be long before we will be half way through winter and I bet we will still be waiting! Well not me I'm off to enjoy my life instead of being stuck behind this screen because the upgraded gfs and ecm have lead us up the garden path to many times. Enjoy!

[Hocus Pocus]

Looks like the Easterly is on ice until????

[Gord]

I think if we could go back in time and offer what we have in front of us to ourselves a year ago, we'd snap it up with no arguments!

Merry Christmas!

[knocker]

Europe - time for a pattern flip! This is temp anomaly map for the last 7 days, notice very warm period over much of Europe while northern Scandinavia has cooled down significantly. As soon as the blocking over Atlantic establishes this weekend, arctic outbreak with be rapidly spreading far south towards Mediterranean. Is everyone ready for winter blast? Some areas will receive a great amount of snow and much colder than average temepratures (right image).

Source: WeatherBell

 

https://www.facebook.com/severeweatherEU/photos/a.1423656947857402.1073741825.1377757209114043/1613524075537354/?type=1&theater

[mushymanrob]

looking like some areas might get a period of wet snow later tomorrow, i suspect that most of it wont settle especially on lowland areas, it has trouble settling on ground thats above zero.  so a slushfest looks likely for some whilst others just get rain.

[stewfox]

Seems the mods are on holiday in the model thread. Seems a lot of wind up posts. Also a lot of moaning about tomorrow's event which hasn't even happened and will be down to now casting. Has Dec 2010 raised our expectations too high ? Early 2000s a flake in march under a lamp post at 2am was magic to watch. Now its "well if it does snow on boxing day it won't last of course".

Edited December 25, 2014 by stewfox

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looking like some areas might get a period of wet snow later tomorrow, i suspect that most of it wont settle especially on lowland areas, it has trouble settling on ground thats above zero.  so a slushfest looks likely for some whilst others just get rain.

 

Thats what I think, struggles in Stafford, but a similar event on 11th Feb '14, a lot of rain then heavy snow that settled on wet ground, the snow has to be heavy, and that was morning, so colder anyway at 10am than 10pm

Edited December 25, 2014 by Ilovethesnow

[mushymanrob]

Seems the mods are on holiday in the model thread. Seems a lot of wind up posts. Also a lot of moaning about tomorrow's event which hasn't even happened and will be down to now casting. Has Dec 2010 raised our expectations too high ? Early 2000s a flake in march under a lamp post at 2am was magic to watch. Now its "well if it does snow on boxing day it won't last of course".

Well in fairness i do think expectations are too high for many. You have the rampers overstating the event. Historically snow in situations like this, ie from the west, rarely give a settled covering that lasts. It is often wet slush. I think higher ground will be best positioned obviously, but talk of settled snow lasting into next week is really misleading i believe.

If im wrong ill hold my hands up and accept it, but ive seen many of these situations before and they seldom deliver a good, lasting, widespread dumping.

Thats what I think, struggles in Stafford, but a similar event on 11th Feb '14, a lot of rain then heavy snow that settled on wet ground, the snow has to be heavy, and that was morning, so colder anyway at 10am than 10pm

Indeed its not a done deal that itll only be a slushfest for most lower lying places, just perhaps most likely?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

most likely yes, many instances where rain struggles to turn to snow and all you get is just a few flakes mixed in, with no cold air around I'm still doubtful for low levels

[beatpete]

Well two members of my family have been told to prepare snow clearing plant for the storm tomorrow ...sounds serious

 

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/20521-photo0773/

 

A very Merry Christmas to you all

[knocker]

Well the ECM32 doesn't look too receptive for anything but transient nippy spells and the 'P' out to T384 certainly isn't. Still patience is the key word and the potential is there for the end of January and February. Of course there could also be an early Spring. The hills are alive to the sound of........................

[lorenzo]

Good luck to everyone seeing some snow for the first time in a while today..

 

Walken in a Winter Wonderland

 

[Bristawl Si]

Where's the longer term pattern change that some of the more cryptic posters on here have said is coming?

[Weather-history]

The infamous snow event from February 6 1996, just by looking at those 850's some would think how on earth did that produce some remarkable snow totals especially in the nw, even the Channel Islands saw significant snow from this and see how close they are to the 0c 850 temperature.

 

SLP

 

archives-1996-2-6-0-0.png

 

850 Temperature

 

archives-1996-2-6-0-2.png

 

The key was that the actual flow into the UK was from the se.

What do you mean infamous?

Legendary, glorious, magic, folklore spring to mind...

[sparky1972]

so wanting to get some snow here, lol.  but all we have forecast is 12 hours of heavy rain, another snowless winter, becomming a very real possibilty.

[mushymanrob]

oh god im in line for snow... how ironic that i dont want it yet most of you do, ill get it and you wont! lol

yes id like a good blizzard, but this isnt, for me its all or nothing.

anybody want my snow?...

[Mapantz]

Please keep this Mods as I think it's important. A lot of people were/are indeed bashing Frosty for his exuberance when it comes to snow. Although, granted, he doesn't post charts to back up his thoughts, but I'm sure, actually certain, he's the anchor for reoccurring members on this site. The traffic on Netweather trebles or quadruples during the Winter period, Frosty's excitable updates are genuinely what people look for and he's one of many that bring new members back onto the forum every time.

I understand there are other threads, but if we want people to get interested into the weather and not be scared to venture into this thread, I think some Mods should be more lenient and the members bathing him should allow him to keep his exuberance as it can too serious and droll in here at times.

A lot of his posts should be removed, just like mine was on xmas day for pointing out exactly what he was doing. I posted four of his quotes, that he posted in two days- showing exactly what he does. I want to see straightforward model discussion, not exuberance in posts moaning and then changing your mind within a few hours.. fewer post count members would have theirs removed.

Example:

I've lost faith with the met office and their super computers,yesterday and last night it was snow showers and now it's dry with fog and frost, no mention of snow and then back to the Atlantic. The models make my blood boil with their teases and constant let downs..Merry Christmas

Same day:

5-15cm..that's it I'm off to buy a sledge..Seriously though I'm happy to see a cold outlook, if we can get a snow cover before the high moves in we will get some very low minima and struggling to get much above freezing during daylight too.. a far cry from last winter when the mild unsettled weather hardly ever stopped for 3 months.

frosty doesn't even bother replying but that IS misleading and confusing in the mod thread, and it's simply not needed. It should go in here or not be posted at all.

The mild digs at the end of his posts are not acceptable either.

Edited December 26, 2014 by Mapantz

[Hocus Pocus]

Where's the longer term pattern change that some of the more cryptic posters on here have said is coming?

Patience is required. :smiliz19:

The only signal I can see is for the continuation of the same pattern we've been stuck in this month with the emphasis on TM air becoming the more dominant pattern as we head further into January, no scientific evidence to back this up just years of weather watching and observing weather patterns over this time.

[Hocus Pocus]

A lot of his posts should be removed, just like mine was on xmas day for pointing out exactly what he was doing. I posted four of his quotes, that he posted in two days- showing exactly what he does. I want to see straightforward model discussion, not exuberance in posts moaning and then changing your mind within a few hours.. fewer post count members would have theirs removed.

Example:

Same day:

frosty doesn't even bother replying but that IS misleading and confusing in the mod thread, and it's simply not needed. It should go in here or not be posted at all.

The mild digs at the end of his posts are not acceptable either.

Why do you persist with you character attack on Frosty, this is nothing more than bullying a fellow poster for having a different viewpoint to yours.

[Mapantz]

Why do you persist with you character attack on Frosty, this is nothing more than bullying a fellow poster for having a different viewpoint to yours.

It's nothing to do with a viewpoint, read the post again.

It's pointing out that someone shouldn't get preferential treatment because of their post count, which does happen.

Toys are thrown out, then put back in with a tail between the legs.

How many times have we seen posts from the moderators saying something along the lines of "If you're having a moan or a ramp, or if it's about the MetOffice, then put it in the relevant thread"

The rules don't seem to apply to everyone.

Edited December 26, 2014 by Mapantz

[Hocus Pocus]

It's nothing to do with a viewpoint, read the post again.

It's pointing out that someone shouldn't get preferential treatment because of their post count, which does happen.

Toys are thrown out, then put back in with a tail between the legs.

There's countless posters in the MOD thread who do that and I don't seen any preferential treatment. If it annoys you so much then why don't you just use the hide posts function?

[Mapantz]

There's countless posters in the MOD thread who do that and I don't seen any preferential treatment. If it annoys you so much then why don't you just use the hide posts function?

I know there are, and I usually report them.

The ignore function isn't very helpful, 99% of the time the post will be quoted by somebody else, which means you'll see it anyway.

Anyway, let's leave it. You've got snow coming haven't you? That's more important.

Edited December 26, 2014 by Mapantz

[snow freak]

great snow in the forecast and all we get here is light rain.  god this country really is rubbish in even producing one lousy day of snow let alone weeks of the stuff.  I give up.

[stainesbloke]

great snow in the forecast and all we get here is light rain. god this country really is rubbish in even producing one lousy day of snow let alone weeks of the stuff. I give up.

I thought the snow (if any) was to come later and overnight?

Edited December 26, 2014 by stainesbloke