Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[mushymanrob]

Not here after a slight thaw still a covering which will be here till Tuesday at lest now with the forecast

 

oh im not suggesting itll be gone quickly, it wont, and like you i dont expect it to be clear much before tuesday. but the gfs predicted temps that several used yesterday to suggest a cold/frozen week ahead were as ever, inaccurate. for me this wasnt a discussion about which posters were right or wrong, but about the accuracy of the data they/we/i used to form a conclusion. the met o people on the bbc are imho more accurate then the gfs temp predictions, and this will be borne out this week (using yesterdays gfs).  yesterdays gfs temp predictions suggested it would get above zero across the snow fields all week, hence no thaw. the bbc met people predicted temps safely above zero, hence thaw. (even if its slow) .... take the gfs temp predictions as a guide only, they are not law.

[Continental Climate]

Oh dear!!! It's all going a bit pear shaped now isn't it? The strat is not looking as positive as it was a few weeks ago and its a bit doom and gloom in the MOD thread as well. The charts at the moment are as poor as you could possibly get for this time of the year if cold weather is your thing. The OPI also looks to have failed us this year apparently due to low pressure systems in Siberia. I think we can realistically write off the first two weeks of January now and all those who forecasted a cold hearted winter may have to review their forecast. I could be looking at two years+ for no snow IMBY which is thoroughly depressing.

[knocker]

Anyone fancy posting some model charts on here for me please. Ive steered clear of thread best part of the day but just looked in to find the sniping getting worse and the charts have all but vanished! I know we're all a bit disappointed with the lack of snow/ the lack of sun/the .....etc. but come on...there's toys and prams ..we dont need cowboys and indians!

 

Here you go from the GFS (P) and GFS for 12z ss. As you can see the low is not quite as deep on this run. If you goto this link weatherbell have some free charts for a few days. I think

 

Extending GFS upgrade out to full 384 hours b/c ... no reason. http://weather.graphics/gsm/ygfs_t1534_global.php â€¦ Free access until January 14.

Charts courtesy weatherbell.

Edited December 27, 2014 by knocker

[Barking_Mad]

There's a number of folk on the other thread who post lots of well meaning information about forecasts, but it's more often than not wrong. Besides which, unless the entire country is gripped by a blizzard, or their own backyard is full of snow, any cold or snow doesn't count.

It looks and feels like winter across a lot of the UK after yesterday yet for some folk "winter is over".

[Barry12]

Yes, winter is over. The snow in my back garden is spring snow :smiliz64:

[Isabellesnanny]

Think the MOD thread is not a pleasant place to be - although the winter is over posts should not be there, neither should people be bullied when they suggest anything other than deep cold if this is not what they see.A lot of people just enjoy weather and although obviously in the minority not every viewer of the site wants deep cold for 3 months of the year and should not be accused of trolling just because of this.

Think the regionals and here a far more friendly place to be - the weather will do as it will no matter our preferences and at the end of the day it is only the weather

[knocker]

The word "potential" should be immediately banished to the swear filter. Posted on it's own with one jolly chart is totally meaningless.

[knocker]

Think the MOD thread is not a pleasant place to be - although the winter is over posts should not be there, neither should people be bullied when they suggest anything other than deep cold if this is not what they see.A lot of people just enjoy weather and although obviously in the minority not every viewer of the site wants deep cold for 3 months of the year and should not be accused of trolling just because of this.

Think the regionals and here a far more friendly place to be - the weather will do as it will no matter our preferences and at the end of the day it is only the weather

 

Well said Isabelle.

[Continental Climate]

Think the MOD thread is not a pleasant place to be - although the winter is over posts should not be there, neither should people be bullied when they suggest anything other than deep cold if this is not what they see.A lot of people just enjoy weather and although obviously in the minority not every viewer of the site wants deep cold for 3 months of the year and should not be accused of trolling just because of this.

Think the regionals and here a far more friendly place to be - the weather will do as it will no matter our preferences and at the end of the day it is only the weather

I hardly think there is bullying going on in the MOD thread yes there are some toys getting thrown out of prams and a few posts suggesting winter is over but i would hardly call it bullying. To call it such is an offence to people who have actually been bullied. Some people need to grow a backbone. Oh and BTW i haven't just bullied you!! 

[Hocus Pocus]

The word "potential" should be immediately banished to the swear filter. Posted on it's own with one jolly chart is totally meaningless.

Indeed , it grates me along with the other buzzwords used frequently in the MOD thread. Every single chart is loaded with potential whether that's for cold, mild, wet or dry.

[Hocus Pocus]

Quote from the other thread

 

 

I find that quite ironic given the stick the self-appointed experts give the METO so frequently.

Again indeed, I'm still awaiting the day for self appointed experts to match or better the MetO over 52 weeks of the year when someone does I'll sit up and take notice.

[knocker]

Indeed , it grates me along with the other buzzwords used frequently in the MOD thread. Every single chart is loaded with potential whether that's for cold, mild, wet or dry.

 

I know I was in the butchers today buying some pork and he asked me if I would like the undercut and I came over quite faint.

[Ravendane]

I swore I wouldn't come back to this site after last year ...the roller coaster of expectation and disappointment from model data or from the Netweather five day forecasts...even the radar could disappoint...storms shown directly over head which never actually happened!  But I do need to have a rough idea what the weather will bring, to make plans for feed, bedding and water supplies for my mares for example. Hard to keep faith though when a forecast for 85 % chance of snow turns to 0 within a few hours. 

[knocker]

The HP in Norh Americal is forecast 1060mb

Chart weatherbell

 

[Barry12]

The word "potential" should be immediately banished to the swear filter. Posted on it's own with one jolly chart is totally meaningless.

 

That's true. But it's the same posting one mild chart and declaring it's going to be zonal for weeks.

[DAVID SNOW]

I know I was in the butchers today buying some pork and he asked me if I would like the undercut and I came over quite faint.

 

+1  Knocks and the laughter, well  that turned some heads my way............ :smiliz19:

[Summer Sun]

For those interested the BBC are suggesting we're likely to see a series of low pressure systems from the Atlantic for the first couple of weeks of 2015 with it turning less cold but often windy with some cloud & rain

Edited December 27, 2014 by Summer Sun

[knocker]

One thing is for sure you wouldn't this depression tracking further south.

Chart courtesy weatherbell

 

[igloo]

i was watching the bbc longer range forecast  on at 9.55pm low pressure stationed to the west of us for the first half of january at least and was confident on the call she made. to many people making calls on a stratospheric warming  event taking place on charts which are constantly  at 360h away the same charts i was viewing on the 1st of december there more unreliable than the models stick with the meto longer range forecasts they have been spot on all season and guess what there is no sign of any  blocking to our north or east which some people have been suggesting from november

Edited December 28, 2014 by igloo

[knocker]

The GFS (P) has the storm less intense this morning (see storm thread ) but it has dragged some warmer air over the UK on the south side of the 160kt jet that's running SW/NE and beach barbies are back on.

Chart weatherbell

Edited December 28, 2014 by knocker

[Chief Wiggam]

I can tell when there's no chance of snow and the winter is a write off when the posters in the model forum start prefacing with "it's just January".... This winter is not going to be cold or snowy unless you like a day of wet slop

[March Blizzard]

Jamstec going for a below average March to May. Lets hope that's mostly down to a brutally cold March than a persistently cool 3 months. Although the model (and I) are probably wrong anyway, I've had a feeling a cold March 2015 is on the way for a while.

[Weather-history]

I can see a few people are not exercising their right of putting their brain into gear before posting.

Why does the winter bring out the worst of comments without an iota of common sense, logic nor thought processes?

Edited December 28, 2014 by Weather-history

[snowblizzard]

Looking at the models and the general pattern, it's going to take a miracle change in set-up for the UK and indeed Western Europe (after this week) to see anything very cold or snowy!

Some PM incursions from the NW that might benefit those on high ground in the North, but they will be of no use to anyone living in the Southern half of England or Wales.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, we once again appear to be stuck in a rut with this constant West to East flow which is so difficult to break and with the strengthening vortex over Eastern Canada surely it can only get worse!

Apologies for the doom & gloom post, but it's beginning to look as if the UK will miss-out on any severe wintry weather yet again this winter!

Edited December 28, 2014 by snowblizzard

[mushymanrob]

The word "potential" should be immediately banished to the swear filter. Posted on it's own with one jolly chart is totally meaningless.

 

absolutely! surely theres only 'potential' if subsequent runs pick up on a signal, or the run develops it.

 

That's true. But it's the same posting one mild chart and declaring it's going to be zonal for weeks.

 

who says knocker wasnt referring to a cherry picked mild chart?