Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[Milhouse]

Well it looks like the Atlantic is waking up as we go into the new year with temps on the up. Still time for a longer colder spell than the one weve just had, but there have been many a Springlike spell in February in recent years so such a spell is just as likely too.

[Barry12]

Hi. Yes the Met does not use the GEFS or GFS but commercial forecasters do as does the US weather industry and many other Countries. So maybe there is still a place for it.

 

Yes there is, James Madden might use it

[JOPRO]

Mild charts that are dead cert to verify! Bore off! Let's see what churns out over the next week, if it ends up being mild then so be it. Think what really annoys people on here is sweeping statements that right off months of winter for cold, if they are correct then good for them, but please don't keep rubbing us cold lovers noses in it! Rant over.

[Weather-history]

I freely admit that the intricacies of the Strat are above my pay grade and i leave to the experts on here but a simple question. If the vortex in ten days time is over Greenland at the 100mb level why should we expect in any change in the tropospheric heights in that area any time soon.?

I posed that question in the strats thread by the way.

Just to show how quick things can change.

Look at this chart from January 1958

Just look at that polar vortex over Greenland!

Yet less than two weeks later

Gone, completely shunted away from Greenland.

[Weather-history]

What happened to Ian Brown?

I have seen a post in the model thread the other day saying Ian Brown should be back posting.

Read this...This was Ian Brown on UKWeatherworld during February 2008

"Well Paul, we are on course for another mild to very mild winter. The statistics for the last 20 years are astonishing, nobody even seriously expects a winter month to be even average anymore. Let's not pretend that the inter war years or any other period was anything on this scale.

Warming has changed the climate, and more especially the winter in Western Europe. Of course, the default weather in the UK is Atlantic based but stable high latitide blocking has become a thing of the past in the winter period and that is a massive factor for the UK."

"Until recently, I believed that it was me who coined the 'large teapot' term but as Kev has pointed out elsewhere, it was used in the inter war years, which incidentally didn't really see anything like the period of warming that we have experienced in the last 20 years.

I make no apologies for the term and it is a reflection of the people who run other weather forums that I have been banned because of my use of the term. I advise people to take a look at the classic archive cold spells on wetterzentrale - stable High latitude blocking, no messy low pressure bombing around northerly seas - we just can't get these synoptics with SSTs so high and the steep thermal gradient between the jet and Polar air moving ever further North.

I'm convinced now that the change is permanent and we could be entering a new super christmas pudding the like of which we have never seen before. Sad for cold and snow lovers, but exciting to be around in such an evolving era of change. "

"

I just think that was happened in the last 20 years has been remarkable and unprecedented since climate records began in the 17th century. Not only that, we can observe the changes to the jet stream, SSTs, the shifting of the hemispheric pressure belts and see why high latitude blocking is so rare these days. This is not something that is going to change over the next few years - the general concensus is that warming will accelerate and as I have explained before, what is happening impacts upon Western Europe more so than any other mid latitude location.

The one winter constant will be the Polar Vortex over Greenland so we are looking at alternating spells of mid-latitude Highs and Bartletts. It will at least be a relatively simple call for long range forecasters !"

What followed was this

4 of the next 6 winters were below average including the coldest winter for the CET since 1978-79, the coldest December since 1890

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/62524-spring-is-in-the-air-time-to-write-off-winter/

Is there anyone on this site now can take this guy seriously, today?

[Barry12]

I have seen a post in the model thread the other day saying Ian Brown should be back posting.

Read this...This was Ian Brown on UKWeatherworld during February 2008

"Well Paul, we are on course for another mild to very mild winter. The statistics for the last 20 years are astonishing, nobody even seriously expects a winter month to be even average anymore. Let's not pretend that the inter war years or any other period was anything on this scale.

Warming has changed the climate, and more especially the winter in Western Europe. Of course, the default weather in the UK is Atlantic based but stable high latitide blocking has become a thing of the past in the winter period and that is a massive factor for the UK."

"Until recently, I believed that it was me who coined the 'large teapot' term but as Kev has pointed out elsewhere, it was used in the inter war years, which incidentally didn't really see anything like the period of warming that we have experienced in the last 20 years.

I make no apologies for the term and it is a reflection of the people who run other weather forums that I have been banned because of my use of the term. I advise people to take a look at the classic archive cold spells on wetterzentrale - stable High latitude blocking, no messy low pressure bombing around northerly seas - we just can't get these synoptics with SSTs so high and the steep thermal gradient between the jet and Polar air moving ever further North.

I'm convinced now that the change is permanent and we could be entering a new super christmas pudding the like of which we have never seen before. Sad for cold and snow lovers, but exciting to be around in such an evolving era of change. "

"

I just think that was happened in the last 20 years has been remarkable and unprecedented since climate records began in the 17th century. Not only that, we can observe the changes to the jet stream, SSTs, the shifting of the hemispheric pressure belts and see why high latitude blocking is so rare these days. This is not something that is going to change over the next few years - the general concensus is that warming will accelerate and as I have explained before, what is happening impacts upon Western Europe more so than any other mid latitude location.

The one winter constant will be the Polar Vortex over Greenland so we are looking at alternating spells of mid-latitude Highs and Bartletts. It will at least be a relatively simple call for long range forecasters !"

What followed was this

4 of the next 6 winters were below average including the coldest winter for the CET since 1978-79, the coldest December since 1890

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/62524-spring-is-in-the-air-time-to-write-off-winter/

Is there anyone on this site now can take this guy seriously, today?

 

Moral of the story: try to predict the weather over a long period of time, and you will be made to look a fool!

[JoeShmoe]

Ian Brown is on Twitter as @ModernWinter or something like that and hasn't changed at all

However for all the cold rampers I like Ian and Codge and the old guard mild posters as adds some variety and discussion and balance

[I remember Atlantic 252]

yes, where is IB? why doesn't he come back? under terry michael wood, or different user name

 

IB was not a mildie, just very negative, believed winters are more Atlantic dominated nowadays

 

codge, well on my I.L, got IB on my twitter now

Edited December 29, 2014 by Ilovethesnow

[March Blizzard]

A lot of talk about just getting through the next 2 weeks or so...as if a solid Arctic freeze is guaranteed afterwards. More than likely uncle Bartlett will ride into town!

[knocker]

on his trusty stallion.

 

Similar story with the P whole run dominated by HP to SW - SE with the Atlantic flowing to the north giving the transient ridge scenario but the HP becoming more dominant later in the run Temps average or just above.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

 

Patience - the building bricks are in place but Bob The Builder is still on extended leave.

Edited December 30, 2014 by knocker

[KTtom]

yes, where is IB? why doesn't he come back? under terry michael wood, or different user name

 

IB was not a mildie, just very negative, believed winters are more Atlantic dominated nowadays

 

codge, well on my I.L, got IB on my twitter now

 

He's also on here as TMW ....nothing's changed...

http://www.ukweatherwatch.co.uk/index.php

[AWD]

Looks like the Meto might slowly leaning towards something a little colder for the second half of January;

"@fergieweather: Further ahead, there are emerging but uncertain signs of colder, possibly more settled weather developing later this month."

They've been spot on up until now so definetly not something to dismiss.

[picog]

Looks like the Meto might slowly leaning towards something a little colder for the second half of January;

"@fergieweather: Further ahead, there are emerging but uncertain signs of colder, possibly more settled weather developing later this month."

They've been spot on up until now so definetly not something to dismiss.

If the MetO are right, calm, cold sunny conditions may mean tons of frost and ice days. Here's hoping.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

He's also on here as TMW ....nothing's changed...

http://www.ukweatherwatch.co.uk/index.php

 

yes, the usual words, pv over greenland and zonality

[JoeShmoe]

Off topic but I often wonder if some of the cold fans are more excited by the chase as to the actual event

I noticed a few days back when in many areas there were at least several cms on the ground, folks were still posting looking for the big 'spell' as opposed to perhaps enjoying what was actually outside

You see it manifested when there is a cold spell when those same folks start looking for the breakdown

[MPG]

Think this winter is hinging on the SSW event now according to some. By the way its miles out in FI and there is 'come' confidence it may occur. Then we still might not get any cold weather and be in the 'wrong' place.

 

Whatever people say....'if' the SSW happens the effects of it won't be felt (in reality, not on a model) for 3 weeks or more. That might put us in line for one good UK wide cold weather event....that would more than likely be it for many parts of the country regarding snow chances.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Think this winter is hinging on the SSW event now according to some. By the way its miles out in FI and there is 'come' confidence it may occur. Then we still might not get any cold weather and be in the 'wrong' place.

 

Whatever people say....'if' the SSW happens the effects of it won't be felt (in reality, not on a model) for 3 weeks or more. That might put us in line for one good UK wide cold weather event....that would more than likely be it for many parts of the country regarding snow chances.

 

I think its just one massive straw clutch, SSW isn't guaranteed to happen, and even if it does it doesn't guarantee cold for the UK, just shows how bad (normal) its looking,

 

by the way missed an 'm' out in your sig! we'll see if that prediction comes off

[Gustywind]

My worry going into this winter was the long run of above average months we've seen recently.

I don't have the monthly cet's to hand, but as far as I'm aware pretty much every month since that incredible spell in Mar/Apr 13 has been average or above, with some months significantly above.

For me since Apr 13 we've seen a flip back to the 90/00s type pattern of predominantly positive NAO winters and summers. Not sure why this is the case or how long this long term mild trend will continue, but it seems to be overriding other factors which would normally lead to a colder winter.

[cyclonic happiness]

We still have potentially 3 months left where it can snow and be sub zero, even during the daytime.

 

I'm not worried yet, I think people's thinking is that winter should be 'front loaded' and that after new year it's basically spring, but all the best winters I've known have been later in the season.

 

Also, February has always been the coldest month of the year, and we've not got the faintest sniff of what that month is going to be like, have we?

 

Let's just sit back and enjoy it, and wait for something to come along :-)

 

I'm gonna try and take a break from the models for a few days (phut!) and hopefully it'll be a different world upon returning.

 

(actually, secretly inside I'm happy so long as there are cold charts....even if they don't verify lol)

[Summer Sun]

My worry going into this winter was the long run of above average months we've seen recently.

I don't have the monthly cet's to hand, but as far as I'm aware pretty much every month since that incredible spell in Mar/Apr 13 has been average or above, with some months significantly above.

For me since Apr 13 we've seen a flip back to the 90/00s type pattern of predominantly positive NAO winters and summers. Not sure why this is the case or how long this long term mild trend will continue, but it seems to be overriding other factors which would normally lead to a colder winter.

 

Here are the CET's from April 13 those in blue were below normal those in red were above normal

 

April 13 - 6.3C - 1.1C below the 1981-2010 average (coldest April since 1989)

 

May 13 - 9.5C - 0.8C below the 1981-2010 average (coldest May since 1996)

 

June 13 - 12.8C - 0.2C below the 1981-2010 average

 

July 13 - 17.0C - 1.9C above the 1981-2010 average (3rd warmest July on record only 2006 and 1983 were higher)

 

August 13 - 15.6C - 0.7 C above the 1981-2010 average

 

September 13 - 12.8 C - 0.1C above the 1981-2010 average

 

October 13 - 11.2 C - 1.7C above the 1981-2010 average

 

November 13 - 5.5 C - 0.7C below the 1981-2010 average

 

December 13 - 5.7C - 1.8C above the 1981-2010 average (warmest December since 1988)

 

January 14 - 4.8 C - 1.1C above the 1981-2010 average

 

February 14 - 5.2C - 1.5C above the 1981-2010

 

March 14 - 6.7C - 1.2 °C above the 1981-2010

 

April 14 - 9.2C - 1.8C above the 1981-2010 average (third warmest April since 1910 but not as warm as 2007 or 2011)

 

May - 11.2C - 0.9C above the 1981-2010 average

 

June 14 - 14.2C - 1.2C above the 1981-2010 average (9th warmest June since 1910)

 

July 14 - 16.3C - 1.2C above the 1981-2010 average (8th warmest July since 1910 but not as warm as July 2013)

 

August 14 - 13.9C - 1.0C below the 1981-2010 average (coolest August since 1993)

 

September 14 - 13.9C -1.3C above the 1981-2010 average (equal fourth warmest September since 1910, though not as warm as 2006)

 

October 14 - 11.1C -1.6C above the 1981-2010 average (equal tenth warmest October since 1910, only marginally cooler than the October 2011 and 2013)

 

November 14 - 7.6C - 1.4C above the 1981-2010 average (fifth warmest November since 1910)

 

So as we can see the warm weather got going in July 2013 and bar 2 blips its stayed above average ever since

Edited December 30, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Froze were the Days]

In a nutshell we're starting 2015 on a pretty similar theme to how 2014 kicked off (less the rain). Agree with Gustywinds post, since May 2013 (June was average) we now seem to have reverted back to weather akin to the late 90's early noughties - as posted by the wonderful Summer Sun

 

Incidentally CFSv2 has been quite good so far this winter on it's 1 month run (December largely fairly zonal with the odd passing Pm shot) and shows absolutely nowt in the way of cold for January and even the signals for February are slowly starting to ebb away.

Edited December 30, 2014 by Froze were the Days

[stewfox]

Does anyone know where the output model discussion thread has gone ? . All I can find is a whinge thread with Jan being written off for any cold ? Why does FI become 4 weeks when outlook for cold is poor but T72 when it's good.

p's -6c here this morning

Edited December 30, 2014 by stewfox

[Barry12]

It's currently the 30th December, many of us have already seen falling and laying snow. For those of us in the North, we've had laying snow since boxing day. In the UK in December, that is actually a pretty good result. The models show the next 16 days to be zonal with temperatures around average, but in reality from day 10 onwards the charts will change everyday. So at most, we can have confidence in what the next 7 days will be like. There have been numerous occasions where the outlook has drastically changed in just a couple of days. As people have already said, when the outlook is showing cold, anything after day 4 is uncertain, yet when the models are showing zonal conditions the models are apparently completely accurate throughout it's run. In a weeks time, we will probably be looking at completely different charts, just like we were a week ago today.

[IDO]

 As people have already said, when the outlook is showing cold, anything after day 4 is uncertain, yet when the models are showing zonal conditions the models are apparently completely accurate throughout it's run.

 

Yes, agree with you there

 

Through experiencing many zonal periods, once they are up and running, and the background signals align with it (which they currently do), they do have momentum. You only have to look at the NH profile to realise that blocking in our region is a complete non runner for the next 10-14 days (at least). 

 

After that I am unsure, but I do feel we need an SSW for anything special cold UK wise, and that also means us Southerners who have not seen snow for a long time.

 

Anyway I admire you enthusiasm 

Edited December 30, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Barry12]

Yes, agree with you there

 

Through experiencing many zonal periods, once they are up and running, and the background signals align with it (which they currently do), they do have momentum. You only have to look at the NH profile to realise that blocking in our region is a complete non runner for the next 10-14 days (at least). 

 

After that I am unsure, but I do feel we need an SSW for anything special cold UK wise, and that also means us Southerners who have not seen snow for a long time.

 

Anyway I admire you enthusiasm 

 

Day 10-16 charts are rarely accurate IDO, no matter what period of weather we are in. Most people know this as a basic fact, I'm surprised you haven't realized this by by now

 

We don't need a SSW for special cold in the UK, it helps but it's not a must. December 2010 being a prime example.

 

With stratospheric warmings, who knows what the NH profile could look like in a couple of weeks.

Edited December 30, 2014 by Barry95