Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[cheeky_monkey]

My point is though its still very early in the winter,thers still time for the Russian high to become a driver this winter,of course time will tell.

not very early in winter.. in 2 weeks it will be half way through and the coldest pont of the NH winter will be upon us then the warming trend begins.

[Yarmy]

Even the experts are surprised by the poor output compared to the pre-winter indices:

 

  MJVentrice

For the highest Eurasia October snow rate on record, 2014 is clearly disappointing for the -AO. http://t.co/dDSrAaWHTH

31/12/2014 11:40

 

So a big Steward's Enquiry as to what were the factors that over rode the promising setup for this winter.

 

Of course one factor could be that the theory is wrong. 

[Gustywind]

My point is though its still very early in the winter,thers still time for the Russian high to become a driver this winter,of course time will tell.

Yes but if it did deliver I'm not sure you could at this stage say it's the result of high Eurasian snowcover in October?

For me the forecast by those opting for a colder winter was based on the preposition that a high October SAI would lead to a negative AO due to a strong winter Siberian high.

Thus increased likelihood of high level blocking and UK cold.

So far this winter the Siberian high has gone AWOL, so the preposition appears flawed?

[Barry12]

The OPI team need to go back to the drawing board!

 

If there theory was correct we should be have a -AO and -NAO, but we don't...

Edited December 31, 2014 by Barry95

[snow freak]

not very early in winter.. in 2 weeks it will be half way through and the coldest pont of the NH winter will be upon us then the warming trend begins.

if no cold or snow shows itself by the middle of February, then it is not worth having in my books as the sun is getting far too strong by the end of February for snow to last any reasonable amount of time.  So only a month and a half of winter left really.

[Chris K]

The OPI team need to go back to the drawing board!

 

If there theory was correct we should be have a -AO and -NAO, but we don't...

 

I would give them a chance to analyse and review it all at the END of the winter first and consider what other factors may have come into play over DJF! It is still yet to be peer-reviewed as well remember and is part of their ongoing research?

 

The only drawing board they need is to stick the faces of people who treated it like a dead certain forecast!

 

 

if no cold or snow shows itself by the middle of February, then it is not worth having in my books as the sun is getting far too strong by the end of February for snow to last any reasonable amount of time.  So only a month and a half of winter left really.

 

 

There is 2 months of winter left. Not 1 and a half. And how many times have people talked about past snow events in March/April where snow was on the surface and stayed there. Yes the Sun will of course have more power but if the surface cold is there, it will stick.

Edited December 31, 2014 by Chris K

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Chris correct, The OPI is work in progress as always advertised. With many other factors at play to consider.

[Continental Climate]

I really hope we don't get a month of westerlies. I have really enjoyed these frosty mornings especially as I have been on nights and driving home at 7.30am the scenes in the country have been very wintry indeed with the frost so thick in places it seemed like the fields and streets were thinly covered in snow. I just dont want weeks of murk and warm rain throughout january and i hope we can get squeeze some MLB out of this awful pattern we are in. If that's the best we can get then i will take it. It feels like these forums have accepted the grim reality facing us with regards cold weather now and if we can get a cold GB high in place that would be fab. 

[knocker]

Happy New Year everyone!!!! You really are a sarky sod knocker. I know, I know but then I saw this little snow troll.....I mean what can you do?

 

Edited December 31, 2014 by knocker

[Betleyblizud]

not very early in winter.. in 2 weeks it will be half way through and the coldest pont of the NH winter will be upon us then the warming trend begins.

Well it depends which winter you go by. if you use the dumb down Britain version of it falling in to nice 3 month periods and mother nature agreeing to start winter on the 1st December  and ending on the 31st March then yes you are correct. However when I lived a few miles from you up Highway 1 at Dead Mans Flats Winter started around the 21st December (and it still did this year) which of course would put us 10 days in to the period with some 80 plus days to go.

[steveinsussex]

parts of the Greek mainland have had 45 cm's of snow

[steveinsussex]

[Barry12]

I would give them a chance to analyse and review it all at the END of the winter first and consider what other factors may have come into play over DJF! It is still yet to be peer-reviewed as well remember and is part of their ongoing research?

 

The only drawing board they need is to stick the faces of people who treated it like a dead certain forecast!

 

A -OPI was meant to correlate at 90% for the following winter to have a -AO and -NAO, I am fully aware it didn't mean cold and snow.

Edited December 31, 2014 by Barry95

[JeffC]

if no cold or snow shows itself by the middle of February, then it is not worth having in my books as the sun is getting far too strong by the end of February for snow to last any reasonable amount of time.  So only a month and a half of winter left really.

Fair enough, you're quite correct re day length and the height of the sun, but when conditions on the surface you can get lying snow, even at low levels quite late on in the year. You only need go back as far as March 2013 when the western side of the country had heavy snow on 22nd March and it was still struggling to get above zero on April 1st. So we had at least 10 days of "proper" winter in the meteorlogical spring. History will no doubt be littered with such examples...isn't it a statistic that Snow is more likely on Easter Sunday than Christmas Day?

I'd love nothing more than a real cold, lake freezing, snow drifting, road blocking cold period, yes, it's a bit of a sod that it's not showing as of yet, but I think it's a bit early to write off any meaningful cold spell just yet, be it in the "winter" or the "spring"

Edited December 31, 2014 by JeffC

[steveinsussex]

parts of the Greek mainland have had 45 cm's of snow

 

 

[Yarmy]

 

Isn't Karyo of Greek origin? I think these images might push him over the edge. :smiliz23:

[J10]

CET for December +0.8c with one day to go.

 

So not really cold.

 

A CET of +0.8c would be in the top 20 coldest of all time.

 

Unless of course you mean an anolomy of +0,8c of course.

[Continental Climate]

I remember the bad old days pre 2009 when these forums used to rage at the constant cold that the greeks used to get well looks like those bad old days are back http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014123112/gfsnh-1-144.png?12

 

They are bathed in -10's and we get +4's 

Edited December 31, 2014 by Continental Climate

[IDO]

A CET of +0.8c would be in the top 20 coldest of all time.

 

Unless of course you mean an anolomy of +0,8c of course.

 

Yes of course, anomaly; would not need the "+" if I was talking about actual temps!

[cheshire snow]

Even Los Angeles getting in on the act,with up to 5 inches of snow expected in the next 24hrs

 

C.S

[cheeky_monkey]

Well it depends which winter you go by. if you use the dumb down Britain version of it falling in to nice 3 month periods and mother nature agreeing to start winter on the 1st December  and ending on the 31st March then yes you are correct. However when I lived a few miles from you up Highway 1 at Dead Mans Flats Winter started around the 21st December (and it still did this year) which of course would put us 10 days in to the period with some 80 plus days to go.

in Alberta winter starts on 1st October and finishes on 1st May its as simple as that.. in the UK it can start anytime from the end of Nov until some where in mid March and last about a week or 2 at best.

[knocker]

Even Los Angeles getting in on the act,with up to 5 inches of snow expected in the next 24hrs

 

C.S

For kicks, here's a comparison of today's 500 mb analysis vs. what occurred on 1/10/1949, LA's snow of record. #CAwx pic.twitter.com/WwlBzZSvGL

[Barry12]

I remember the bad old days pre 2009 when these forums used to rage at the constant cold that the greeks used to get well looks like those bad old days are back http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014123112/gfsnh-1-144.png?12

 

They are bathed in -10's and we get +4's 

 

im sure most greeks would prefer +4

[I remember Atlantic 252]

back to bleedin' normal now, boring Atlantic in charge and likely to be for a few weeks, back to the straw clutching on model thread, PM posting chart from GFSP at +384! its normal now, and January normally sucks for cold

[Captain Shortwave]

Well nice change in the models for Saturday, well for the ducks at least, from a sunny day to a washout in 24 hours. Made worse as it's just 3 days away