Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

People are complaining about winter being over.  But the last few days has produced lots of winter weather I love!

 

Snow on Boxing Day came down thick and fast.

 

Now yesterday and today have produced unbroken blue sky days.

 

If we cannot have snow, then more of these charts please!

 

 

I think these charts during winter, are rarer than snow

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

At the moment, I'm more concerned with the charts in the MOD thread suggesting 90-95 mph winds in my area around the 9th January. :smiliz23:

[Barry12]

I'm starting to think the Met Office's Glosea5 model was right in predicting a mild winter

[Frosty_wsm]

People are complaining about winter being over. But the last few days has produced lots of winter weather I love!

Snow on Boxing Day came down thick and fast.

Now yesterday and today have produced unbroken blue sky days.

If we cannot have snow, then more of these charts please!

Nicely put, while I haven't been as lucky as you to see snow so far this winter the wintry scene outside this morning was a joy to see and be out in, clear blue skies, frost on the ground, what a cracking winters day, just a shame it won't be lasting much longer. Edited December 29, 2014 by Smartie

[Bristawl Si]

I'm starting to think the Met Office's Glosea5 model was right in predicting a mild winter

"Starting" Barry?!

 

I've thought it for the last couple of weeks.

I wrote off 1st 10 days of January a week or so ago, in terms of prolonged cold, snow. That seems to be a given now.

[Barry12]

"Starting" Barry?!

 

I've thought it for the last couple of weeks.

I wrote off 1st 10 days of January a week or so ago, in terms of prolonged cold, snow. That seems to be a given now.

 

yeah but you couldn't be certain of that, still I got 5cm+ of snow on boxing day so I can't complain.

[Bristawl Si]

yeah but you couldn't be certain of that, still I got 5cm+ of snow on boxing day so I can't complain.

Agreed.

 

But, even in a 'bad' winter for cold and snow areas like Yorks, Peak District, Scottish highlands usually get a number of snow days.

 

Down here some Winters can be completely snowless.

[CongletonHeat]

The problem with mild weather in winter is thats its normally cloudy damp depressive weather.

We need more of this lovely sunny cold crisp days like today.

In which it makes everyone feel better. :smiliz34: :smiliz34:

 

 

No it doesn't.

 

Edited December 29, 2014 by CongletonHeat

[Neilsouth]

Out of all these years of model watching, this winter is turning out to be the worst. At one point every model was giving a different outcome! Thankfully I don't put much faith in them anymore, including the met's

[mushymanrob]

The problem with mild weather in winter is thats its normally cloudy damp depressive weather.

We need more of this lovely sunny cold crisp days like today.

In which it makes everyone feel better. :smiliz34: :smiliz34:

But cloudy damp weather has its own intrinsic beauty, its part of the rich variety we get here thankfully. The trouble is with crisp sunny days is the cold. The freeze has shut me inside unable to work or hobby. so for me its viva la variety.

[Smiler1709]

With the models looking rather dire in terms of cold then I think it's time to take the family away for some winter sun and fun before I go away again. More likely to see snow in Iraq sadly won't have time to enjoy it

[Hocus Pocus]

But cloudy damp weather has its own intrinsic beauty, its part of the rich variety we get here thankfully. The trouble is with crisp sunny days is the cold. The freeze has shut me inside unable to work or hobby. so for me its viva la variety.

Yes but isn't like saying to an Eskimo how snow has its own intrinsic beauty. Edited December 29, 2014 by Hocus Pocus

[mushymanrob]

I'm starting to think the Met Office's Glosea5 model was right in predicting a mild winter

Well they are wrong, this first third of winter hasnt been mild, im sitting here now locked indoors with the outdoors frozen under snow. I got more then i expected and its lasting longer then i expected with little thawing today.

Even if it turns mild itll still be colder then last year.

Yes but isn't like saying to an Eskimo how's snow has its own intrinsic beauty.

No it isnt because thdy dont get the variety we do..

[Mullet]

Really though, the only reliable range we have is out to around +144 max, and sometimes significantly less in more dynamic situations. We only really have an inkling of what might happen past say the 3rd of Jan. Allowing time for a pattern change to bear fruit, those with a preference for cold could be building snowmen by mid-Jan for all we know.

 

I never pay too much attention when I hear the longer term indicators are pointing one way or the other, since from what I gather invariably they are pretty useless for local level forecasting, and only hint at the potential for pattern changes. Admittedly it looks as though we are in for at least a week's worth of Atlantic driven weather plus whatever time it takes to transition.

Edited December 29, 2014 by Mullet

[IDO]

Yes I remember last year when we got stuck in a pattern of zonality and every week we had posters saying there is 2 months of winter left...6 weeks left...still Feb...March can produce cold...2014/15 will be better

 

Not saying that it will go the same way, but having to rely on the cold coming in the last half of winter is always a bit nerve wracking.

 

CFS Jan-March: 

 

We had weeks of blocking (charts in late Nov-mid Dec) showing up for Feb-March, even Jan at times but CFS now showing really nasty output in those months. I am not saying that they are consistent re the above but the output has certainly taken a turn for the worse. 

 

Edited December 29, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[cobbett]

Give me last winter any day over this dire winter (so far) what with all its OPI etc promises of a winter nirvana.

Monitoring and experiencing that conveyor belt of low pressure systems will live long in the memory 

[TwisterGirl81]

At the moment, I'm more concerned with the charts in the MOD thread suggesting 90-95 mph winds in my area around the 9th January. :smiliz23:

 

Likewise for Cornwall and Devon too, quite a few nasty storms hitting southern england in the next few weeks according to GFS and GFS P, i'm keeping a close eye on this because if verifies it could be like the Burns Day Storm all over again for my parts.

 

I love a good storm so I would be in my eliment.

[Mr Frost]

Into my third day of permanent ground frost and most of the time freezing fog - snowfall during the first week of December,

Pretty good Winter so far although I would love more snow and a couple of severe gales thrown in for good measure. (Jan, Feb and even March to go for some of that)

IDO I have never understood why you always wheel out those CFS charts?

Ian Ferguson has already stated numerous times that the Metoffice never look at them or even discuss them.

They are about as much use as a cat flap on a submarine, would rather watch a documentary on quicksand and then go for a bath in just my socks than look at them - just my opinion.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The association between cold weather and sunshine is dependent on what area of the country you live in.  In the west there is generally a strong "cold, dry, sunny" association during the winter months, but in some eastern parts of the country, such as Durham, there tends to be a positive correlation between winter temperatures and sunshine and only a limited correlation between sunshine and rainfall.  The main reasons for this are likely to be shelter from cloud cover in tropical maritime west to south-westerly flows and the frequent dull dry weather associated with the Scandinavian High.

[IDO]

Into my third day of permanent ground frost and most of the time freezing fog - snowfall during the first week of December,

Pretty good Winter so far although I would love more snow and a couple of severe gales thrown in for good measure. (Jan, Feb and even March to go for some of that)

IDO I have never understood why you always wheel out those CFS charts?

Ian Ferguson has already stated numerous times that the Metoffice never look at them or even discuss them.

They are about as much use as a cat flap on a submarine, would rather watch a documentary on quicksand and then go for a bath in just my socks than look at them - just my opinion.

 

Hi. Its nice to see some are having at least something seasonal. Yes CFS is just for fun, though not really even that on current output. However they were showing a blocked January in November and then they were 50:50 early December for zonal or blocked. The last 2 weeks they have consistently gone zonal. They tend to be good guidance as for direction of travel and trends and many independent forecasters (commercial) do use them as a guide. But of course you have to be constantly monitoring them to make them of worth, just dipping into them defeats the point as that is not what they are for.

[Hocus Pocus]

Well they are wrong, this first third of winter hasnt been mild, im sitting here now locked indoors with the outdoors frozen under snow. I got more then i expected and its lasting longer then i expected with little thawing today.

Even if it turns mild itll still be colder then last year.

No it isnt because thdy dont get the variety we do..

I was referring to the mild and damp comment which is more or less our default weather pattern, hence my WHOOSH banter comparing it to snow and Eskimos.

[Barry12]

The Met Office don't bother with the GEFS either IDO I will despair if the GEFS go out to 720 hours, as we will then surely get day 32 charts posted as proof a month will be zonal

[IDO]

The Met Office don't bother with the GEFS either IDO I will despair if the GEFS go out to 720 hours, as we will then surely get day 32 charts posted as proof a month will be zonal

 

Hi. Yes the Met does not use the GEFS or GFS but commercial forecasters do as does the US weather industry and many other Countries. So maybe there is still a place for it.

 

32 day charts; that is mana from heaven. Can't wait 

Edited December 29, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Mokidugway]

The purple/pink colours are gradually popping up in the mid-Atlantic on the HGT500 charts. A repeat of last winter's stormy borefest looks imminent.

 

H500_4Jan.png H500_7Jan.png

rinse and repeat , time to book my January holiday ....

[knocker]

Onwards with the zonality. Oh...............