Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

[knocker]

"Where has all the cold air gone, long time passing".....................................

 

GFS 00z parallel model really cranks up Sunday storm system down into 970s. Very cold air behind pic.twitter.com/avNEf653yr

[Barry12]

The model thread - the most depressing place on the internet :smiliz23:

[IDO]

Day 10-16 charts are rarely accurate IDO, no matter what period of weather we are in. Most people know this as a basic fact, I'm surprised you haven't realized this by by now

 

We don't need a SSW for special cold in the UK, it helps but it's not a must. December 2010 being a prime example.

 

With stratospheric warmings, who knows what the NH profile could look like in a couple of weeks.

 

You can of course ignore the charts, challenge the Met Office outlook, dismiss Ian Fergusson et al and say that D10 plus charts don't verify as well as D5 charts. Everyone has their opinions and IMO there is nothing to suggest a blocked setup in the next 15 days (at least). Just because it is possible for charts to flip don't mean they will!

 

December 2010 was the coldest for 100 years and it will probably be another 100 years before it repeats.

 

The SSW will reset the NH and introduce blocking, it remains our best bet. A Strat warming will move the pieces around but like November we could end in the warm sector and end up with another CET of +2.0c. Last winter many posters were saying the same as you as we got stuck in a repeating pattern and of course you know what happened there. It is a different repeating pattern this winter (MJO refusing to go into a blocked cycle, and ridging favouring the US for cold, etc) so I fear without the SSW we could end up stuck in the rut with just PM bursts to keep some up north happy.

 

Let us know how the pattern will change to a blocked and snowy outlook and we can all see if it is feasible. Thanks

Edited December 30, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Barry12]

You can of course ignore the charts, challenge the Met Office outlook, dismiss Ian Fergusson et al and say that D10 plus charts don't verify as well as D5 charts. Everyone has their opinions and IMO there is nothing to suggest a blocked setup in the next 15 days (at least). Just because it is possible for charts to flip don't mean they will!

 

December 2010 was the coldest for 100 years and it will probably be another 100 years before it repeats.

 

The SSW will reset the NH and introduce blocking, it remains our best bet. A Strat warming will move the pieces around but like November we could end in the warm sector and end up with another CET of +2.0c. Last winter many posters were saying the same as you as we got stuck in a repeating pattern and of course you know what happened there. It is a different repeating pattern this winter (MJO refusing to go into a blocked cycle, and ridging favouring the US for cold, etc) so I fear without the SSW we could end up stuck in the rut with just PM bursts to keep some up north happy.

 

Let us know how the pattern will change to a blocked and snowy outlook and we can all see if it is feasible. Thanks

 

I'm not ignoring the charts, I'm ignoring the charts from day 10 onwards, as they rarely verify.

 

The Met Office would have a very easy job if they could write of 2 months for cold just because there isn't a SSW...

 

The CFS showed a blocked and snowy episode at day 57, thats how I know!

[> mark]

The only SSW we'll be getting is a South South Westerly! Atlantic inbound ;-)

 

tbh, I like the snow as the next coldie. However after scraping the thick frost from the car again this morning and having that cold burning sensation on my hands reminded me how much I look forward to the Spring :-O

[John Badrick]

The GEFS 06z mean paints a very unsettled picture once the current anticyclonic spell ends in a day or so, it looks mild, wet and windy but with colder, clearer and showery incursions with snow on hills, especially northern UK and frosty nights during quieter interludes of which there will be some due to the pattern being for ridges to follow depressions continually. This winter is already a cut above the last one because of the current cold spell alone. The mean trends a little colder towards the end.

Tell us something we don't know....ok we get it zonal.. windy, rain, maybe snow on hills in Scotland, not cold, not mild...yawn, yawn, yawn..I, ve lost count of how maby people have said this today, we know what models are saying no need to repeat!!!

[Timmytour]

 PV ramped up a notch compared to the 06z at D8 on the GFS op:

 

12z: gfsnh-0-186.png 06z: gfsnh-0-192 (3).png

 

Not pretty.

It's still possible to get something out of those charts....

For the first one I'm getting a crocodile pushing a pram and for the second one a seal laughing as he throws the UK cold winter in the bin

:-)

[John Cox]

Tell us something we don't know....ok we get it zonal.. windy, rain, maybe snow on hills in Scotland, not cold, not mild...yawn, yawn, yawn..I, ve lost count of how maby people have said this today, we know what models are saying no need to repeat!!!

A little bit more respect to Frosty please , one of our veterans, not agewise:) and one great poster.

Edited December 30, 2014 by John Cox

[Jason M]

I have seen a post in the model thread the other day saying Ian Brown should be back posting.

Read this...This was Ian Brown on UKWeatherworld during February 2008

"Well Paul, we are on course for another mild to very mild winter. The statistics for the last 20 years are astonishing, nobody even seriously expects a winter month to be even average anymore. Let's not pretend that the inter war years or any other period was anything on this scale.

Warming has changed the climate, and more especially the winter in Western Europe. Of course, the default weather in the UK is Atlantic based but stable high latitide blocking has become a thing of the past in the winter period and that is a massive factor for the UK."

"Until recently, I believed that it was me who coined the 'large teapot' term but as Kev has pointed out elsewhere, it was used in the inter war years, which incidentally didn't really see anything like the period of warming that we have experienced in the last 20 years.

I make no apologies for the term and it is a reflection of the people who run other weather forums that I have been banned because of my use of the term. I advise people to take a look at the classic archive cold spells on wetterzentrale - stable High latitude blocking, no messy low pressure bombing around northerly seas - we just can't get these synoptics with SSTs so high and the steep thermal gradient between the jet and Polar air moving ever further North.I'm convinced now that the change is permanent and we could be entering a new super christmas pudding the like of which we have never seen before. Sad for cold and snow lovers, but exciting to be around in such an evolving era of change. "

"

I just think that was happened in the last 20 years has been remarkable and unprecedented since climate records began in the 17th century. Not only that, we can observe the changes to the jet stream, SSTs, the shifting of the hemispheric pressure belts and see why high latitude blocking is so rare these days. This is not something that is going to change over the next few years - the general concensus is that warming will accelerate and as I have explained before, what is happening impacts upon Western Europe more so than any other mid latitude location.The one winter constant will be the Polar Vortex over Greenland so we are looking at alternating spells of mid-latitude Highs and Bartletts. It will at least be a relatively simple call for long range forecasters !"

What followed was this

4 of the next 6 winters were below average including the coldest winter for the CET since 1978-79, the coldest December since 1890http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/62524-spring-is-in-the-air-time-to-write-off-winter/

Is there anyone on this site now can take this guy seriously, today?

Yup, that was me. I see no problem with what he was advocating tbh. Does anyone actually need to take him seriously? I don't agree with lots of it but I defend his right to give his views. He has been proven wrong re the Bartlett comment as actually it's probably no more prevalent now than it ever was and arguably what is a Bartlett anyway? When does a high to our SE qualify as such? Does it need to stay in situ for say 5 days, 10 days......?

In terms of the wider point about 'warming', again it's a logical stance to assume that if we change the composition of out atmosphere to include ever more greenhouse gasses that this could result in warming. Is it proven? Depends who you ask I suppose (and maybe who they work for). Either way, given that were still doing it, I guess we will find out eventually. Possibly man kinds biggest ever experiment :-)

I think Ian gets a bit carried away at times and to just say we can never get cold Synoptics and the change is permanent is way to simplistic. It's worth considering though that if he were advocating the Gulf Stream was to shut down and the Thames would freeze every year, he'd be worshipped as a hero. I never saw anyone on TWO advocate banning Tom Presate (can't recall his exact surname now but you will know who I mean). As I recall he was championing a return to much colder winters!

Despite being a coldie myself I think posters like Ian add to forums rather than detract from them. There are some around here who are IMHO no better than trolls. People who's only point is to be rude and criticise others. Or as in some other cases drop in a chart and a one liner at just the right moment to cause maximum ruckus. For whatever other weaknesses Ian may have had, he was never that and I can't ever recall him being unpleasant or nasty to anyone, unlike some of the stuff posted in here and in the mod thread over Christmas.

Edited December 30, 2014 by Jason M

[cheshire snow]

Into FI T216 looks fairly chilly with plenty of wintry PPN About

 

C.S

[EML Network]

Moan number 1, does mu nut in when people complain about having a snowless winter, or thinking it's extreme to see out two winters with no snow. 

 

I lived in London from 1995 through until the early 00's and I think it snowed once and even then it didn't settle, then I moved to Brighton in 2004 I think and If my memory serves it snowed twice between then and 2008

 

so that's THREE days of snow in 13 years !!

 

BEAT THAT !!

 

so you can see why I cringe when folk complain of going 24 months without seeing snow...grrr

 

2nd Gripe is about all the so called background signals many of which had pointed towards the UK seeing at least one decent cold spell this winter. 

 

OK it's only the end of December and January is yet to come, but let's face it there's absolutely no sign of any prolonged cold spell developing anytime soon, not even the odd stray ensemble run.

 

I'm seriously loosing faith that this winter will deliver anything. 

 

The one and only correlation I can see that holds any sort of water is cold winters coming off the back of years where the sunspot count is low, or at least with little sunspot activity. 

 

This year and last year saw a fair amount of activity (being peak years), IMO that winter 15/16 will be pants, but a little better than this one is panning out and it won't be until the following winter that we'll get to see something decent. 

 

Global warming is playing a big part in things too and is constantly overlooked and has ANYONE on here heard of HARP. 

 

It's all a big load of poo if you ask me, happy new year

[MP-R]

Moan number 1, does mu nut in when people complain about having a snowless winter, or thinking it's extreme to see out two winters with no snow. 

 

I lived in London from 1995 through until the early 00's and I think it snowed once and even then it didn't settle, then I moved to Brighton in 2004 I think and If my memory serves it snowed twice between then and 2008

 

so that's THREE days of snow in 13 years !!

 

 

In all fairness I think that fact you lived in London (urban heat island) and Brighton (on the coast in the southeast) probably says why. Expectation would have to be low. Most other parts of the country, here included, have higher expectations for cold let alone snow.

I agree with the rest of your post though. Having had such a positive and optimistic lead up to the winter with all the right background signals and the 'good' news from the OPI, it does leave me wondering what on earth to believe next year. I'm not giving up yet but if we haven't had a decent cold spell by the final third of January I will start losing interest. As pleasant as this spell has been, it's nothing out of the ordinary and I would expect such weather to happen at least once in December.

 

On a more positive note, let's get this zonal spell started and see whether anything of interest pops up. I think for most, mild rain and strong winds don't quite cut it at any time of the year.

[Jason M]

Blimey EML, your brave...

Not just a winters over post, but a winter 2015 / 16 is over post!

I salute you sir :-) you are much braver than I (and I was just sticking up for Ian Brown).

[hec1]

looks like we can write off the whole winter, another snowless one

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Into FI T216 looks fairly chilly with plenty of wintry PPN About

 

C.S

 

great runs for the north pants for me in the south, would prefer a more high pressure run, at least dry

[Continental Climate]

If we are seeing charts like this http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014123012/ECH1-240.GIF?30-0 in a weeks time then it will be panic stations in here!! I dont post that often but im an habitual lurker and these are some of the worst charts i have seen and the signal must be pretty strong because we have had these sort of charts for a while. I think we need to stick with the met office this winter they have been spot on so far. They have went for above average and zonal and i think that's where we may be heading. Such a shame as i love the snow and cold.

[Skullzrulerz]

looks like we can write off the whole winter, another snowless one

 

We still got two more whole winter mouths and you're throwing the rest of the winter in the bin

 

Yes the 1st half of January may be in a mild,wet,windy regime but just because of that doesn't mean we should write the rest of winter if you know what i mean.

 

Already there is some cold appearing in the very deep fi right now.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

We still got two more whole winter mouths and you're throwing the rest of the winter in the bin

 

Yes the 1st half of January may be in a mild,wet,windy regime but just because of that doesn't mean we should write the rest of winter if you know what i mean.

 

Already there is some cold appearing in the very deep fi right now.

 

precisely deep FI, I have already written January off as Dan knows! (for low levels south only though) but not writing winter off, Feb and Mar snow potential months, and aren't we due a good Feb?

[Milhouse]

4 out of the last 6 Februarys have been below the 81-10 average so actually weve had our fair share of cold in recent years.

[stewfox]

Tell us something we don't know....ok we get it zonal.. windy, rain, maybe snow on hills in Scotland, not cold, not mild...yawn, yawn, yawn..I, ve lost count of how maby people have said this today, we know what models are saying no need to repeat!!!

Patience is the key. Coldest July on

Record anyone ??

[Barry12]

Get ready...it's coming.

[Mokidugway]

What is Barry ???....

[Daniel*]

Get ready...it's coming.

you said that before

[I remember Atlantic 252]

What is Barry ???....

 

the Atlantic and the Zonal train

[Mokidugway]

the Atlantic and the Zonal train

oh dear , wake me in the spring !!!....